| Soybean is not only an important food crop,but also an important raw material of edible vegetable oil and feed protein,which is of great significance to national food security and the improvement of residents’ dietary structure.With the rapid development of China’s economy and the continuous improvement of residents’ living standards,the consumption demand for edible oils and animal-derived foods has continued to grow,which makes the demand for soybeans has increased rapidly.Since 1996,Discrepency between China’s soybean production and demand has been expanding year by year,and imports must be used to make up this gap.China becomes a major soybean import country from a soybean net export country.According to the data from China’s General Administration of customs,In 2003,China’s soybeans import exceed 20.74 million tons,became the head of import soybean country in the world.By 2019,China’s imports of soybeans reached 88.64 million tons,more than 80% of soybean consumption that year,which greatly eased the contradiction between soybean production and demand in China.However,due to the high dependence of soybeans on foreign trade and the relative concentration of import source countries,the quantity of soybeans imported from the United States,Brazil,and Argentina accounted for more than 95% of China’s total soybean imports.This is in anti-globalization and the COVID-19 disease.In the face of double challenges,soybean trade risks are more prominent.In 2019,the Central Committee’s No.1 document proposed the implementation of the soybean revitalization plan,and then the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs formulated the "Soybean Revitalization Plan Implementation Plan",which clearly required the expansion of soybean planting area,higher yields,improved product quality,and efforts to increase soybean effectiveness.Supply and improve the quality,efficiency and competitiveness of China’s soybean industry.The Chinese government attaches great importance to the cultivation of genetically modified organisms.As early as 2009,China formally launched the “Major Special Project for Cultivation of New Genetically Modified Organisms” including genetically modified soybeans.Chinese scientists continue to increase scientific and technological innovation and actively cultivate new genetically modified soybean varieties.In December 2019,Shanghai Jiaotong University successfully cultivated the new genetically modified soybean variety SHZD32-01,and officially obtained China’s first safety certificate for the production and application of genetically modified soybeans,which means that China has taken a substantial step towards industrialization of genetically modified soybeans.Although,the successful cultivation of new varieties of genetically modified soybeans is to reduce soybean production costs,improve soybean planting efficiency,promote farmers’ income,enhance the competitiveness of China’s soybean industry in the international market,ease the risk of excessive soybean import dependence,and ensure national food Security etc.provide technical feasibility.However,whether the industrialization of genetically modified soybeans in China can proceed smoothly depends on the willingness of farmers to plant and the acceptance of consumers.At the same time,what impact soybean industrialization will have on the Chinese soybean market and international trade requires urgent research.To this end,this thesis draws on the experience of the industrialization of genetically modified soybeans in the United States,Brazil,and Argentina,using farmer models,choice experiment,product vertical differences,and partial equilibrium models to analyze the three aspects of producers,consumers,and international trade.Research on the industrialization of genetically modified soybeans in China has been carried out in various aspects to provide theoretical basis and decisionmaking reference for the industrialization of genetically modified soybeans in China.The main contents are as follows:Research from the perspective of genetically modified soybean producers.First,according to the differences in the characteristics of genetically modified soybeans and non-transgenic soybeans,on the basis of the farmer model and the different weeding methods,a farmer model of genetically modified soybeans and non-transgenic soybeans was constructed.Through the comparative analysis of the two farm household models,it is found that the production decision-making process of farm households is most affected by the change in weeding methods.Next,use the choice experiment method to conduct an empirical study on the magnitude of the impact of the change in the weeding method of the farmers,and use the variables changed by the herbicide method obtained in the theoretical analysis as the characteristics of the genetically modified and non-GM soybean seeds,and design the questionnaires for the choice experiment.Through the analysis of the survey data of 366 effective farmers in the main soybean producing areas such as Heilongjiang,Inner Mongolia,Liaoning and Jilin,the selection of different combinations of herbicide technologies by farmers was obtained.Then,according to the MNL model,the influence of different soybean seed characteristics on the selection of farmers is calculated,and the farmers’ willingness to pay for different soybean seed characteristics,and then the welfare of different combinations is calculated according to the willingness to pay.The results showed that(1)the main factors affecting farmers’ production choices were the number of herbicides,no-tillage,yield,and soybean seed prices;(2)genetically modified soybeans could bring higher welfare to farmers;(3)Genetically modified soybean farmers are more inclined to plant genetically modified soybeans.Research from the perspective of consumers of genetically modified soybeans.Consumers have different effects on the consumption of domestically produced non-GM soybeans and imported genetically modified soybeans in the market,and the utility of consumers is affected by the price of different types of soybeans and the aversion coefficient of different types of soybeans.This thesis uses the genetically modified labeling system to study the welfare changes that may be brought to consumers after genetically modified soybeans are grown.First,set different planting conditions,including domestic planting and domestic non-planting of genetically modified soybeans;set different policy conditions,including mendatory labeling and distinguishing domestic and imported genetically modified soybeans;labeling but not distinguishing domestic and imported genetically modified soybeans;not mandatory Three kinds of labels.Different planting situations and different policy conditions constitute 4 different situations: domestic production of genetically modified soybeans is mandatory for genetically modified soybeans;domestically produced genetically modified soybeans are labeled and distinguish domestic and imported genetically modified soybeans;domestically produced genetically modified soybeans are labeled but not distinguished Domestically produced and imported genetically modified soybeans;domestically produced genetically modified soybeans,while importing genetically modified soybeans,but no mandatory labeling.By comparing the changes in consumer welfare under different combination schemes,the market share after the promotion of genetically modified soybeans and the impact of consumer welfare are analyzed.The results showed that(1)for consumers,domestically produced genetically modified soybeans provide consumers with more choices;(2)domestically produced genetically modified soybeans can strictly improve consumer welfare under the mendatory labeling system;(3)Under the non-label regulation,the changes brought by domestically produced genetically modified soybeans to consumer welfare are affected by consumers’ aversion coefficient for genetically modified soybeans and the market share of imported genetically modified soybeans.Research on the impact of genetically modified soybean industrialization on China’s soybean trade.First,based on the Armington theory and the conversion relationship of the CET function,a partial equilibrium model including the relationship of "importdomestic consumption-export" is constructed to analyze the impact of genetically modified soybeans on China’s international soybean trade.Second,measure the supply elasticity,demand elasticity,substitution elasticity and conversion elasticity in the partial equilibrium.Finally,after solving the partial equilibrium,the GAMS software is used to calibrate and simulate three different genetically modified soybean planting scenarios,including scenario 1: the impact of the increase in soybean total factor productivity on China’s soybean trade;scenario two : The impact of the growth of different non-GM soybeans on the market;Scenario 3: The impact of the growth of different genetically modified soybeans on the market;Scenario 4: The impact of different imported GM soybean transaction costs on the Chinese soybean trade market.The results showed that(1)When the TFP increased by 10%,domestic soybean supply increased by 8.3%,and imports decreased by 2.2%;(2)When non-GM soybean planting area increased by 15%,domestic soybean supply increased by 12.4%,Imports decreased by 3.2%;(3)When the planting area of genetically modified soybeans increased by 15%,domestic soybean supply increased by 21%,and imports decreased by 5.2%;(4)When the transaction cost of imported genetically modified soybeans was 5% of its price,The number of imports decreased by 17%.In short,genetically modified soybeans can increase soybean production capacity,and the increase is higher than that of non-GM soybeans.In the face of the risk of trade frictions,genetically modified soybeans can be based on resistance,and the production capacity of non-GM soybeans is not enough to resist trade frictions.Possible contribution of this article :(1)Constructed a model of farmers with different weeding methods,theoretically discussed the influencing factors of farmers’ planting of genetically modified soybeans,and designed choice experiments based on this.Based on the survey data of large samples of farmers,farmers’ planting intentions and planting The welfare changes brought by genetically modified soybeans to farmers;(2)With the help of GM label regulations,the potential impact of domestic GM soybean industrialization on consumer welfare was explored.Under the condition that domestic GM soybeans have not been industrialized,a research consumer was found An effective alternative to welfare changes;(3)A partial equilibrium model including the industrialization of domestic GM soybeans was constructed,and various elasticities were estimated with the help of the current domestic soybean production,making the model closer to reality. |
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