The Influencing Factors And Policy Simulation Of The Sustainable Development Of Basic Pension Insurance In China

Since the Third Plenary Session of the 18 th CPC Central Committee,the CPC has gradually deepened its understanding of the“modernization of national governance system and governance capacity”.Social security,as a necessary and important tool for national governance,is playing an increasingly important role in the modernization of China’s governance system and capacity.At the fifth plenary session of the 19 th CPC Central Committee on October 29,2020,Xi Jinping,General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee,pointed out we will promote economic and social development,and our ultimate goal is to achieve common prosperity for all people.In order to provide institutional guarantees for the goal of common prosperity,on the afternoon of February26,2021,the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee conducted the 28 th collective study on improving the social security system covering the whole people.Presiding over the study,Xi Jinping,General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee,stressed that social security is a basic institutional guarantee for ensuring and improving people’s livelihood,maintaining social fairness,and enhancing people’s well-being.It is an important system arrangement for promoting economic and social development and realizing that the broad masses of people share the fruits of reform and development.It is a big issue of governance and stability.This raises the status and role of social security in the modernization of national governance system and governance capacity to an unprecedented height.The basic pension insurance is regarded as the cornerstone of the Multi-level old-age security system and an important part of the social security system.Therefore,the development of basic pension insurance system will affect the modernization process of national governance system and governance ability.Whether the basic pension insurance can achieve sustainable development is not only related to the vital interests of the common people,but also related to the stability of the society and the long-term peace and stability of the country.However,with the world economic growth into the downward channel and the aging of the structure of China’s population,the systemic risks faced by the current pension insurance system are accumulating,and risk exposure is increasingly expanding.The reason is that the basic pension insurance model of ”combination of accounts” established in China in the 1990 s can no longer adapt to the development of the times and changes in national conditions.The current basic pension insurance model is difficult to achieve self-balance through its endogenous mechanism.The best proof is that under the impact of COVID-19 epidemic in 2020,the financial income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance in the current period is under great pressure.Therefore,resolving the current financial income and expenditure pressure of the basic pension insurance and realizing the sustainable development of the basic pension insurance are not only the actual needs of the basic pension insurance system,but also the core demands of the modernization of national governance system and governance capacity.Since the reform of the basic pension insurance system for enterprise employees in 1997,China’s basic pension insurance has made great progress,both in terms of the population covered and the scale of fund revenue and expenditure.However,there are still theoretical misunderstandings in our understanding of basic pension insurance.The regional division of the basic pension insurance system,the rigidity of system parameters,the imbalance of financing,the disorder of expectations,and many other internal problems,combined with changes in the external environment represented by the decline in economic growth and the rapid aging of the population,have caused contradictions that affect the sustainable development of the basic pension insurance.These contradictions also show long-term,complex and sharp characteristics.Therefore,We need to resolve the main contradictions that affect the sustainable development of basic pension insurance from the perspective of strategic management.Based on that,the article will discuss the sustainable development of basic pension insurance from the following five parts:In the first part,by studying the existing literatures,it is proposed that the basic pension insurance model of “pooling and accounting”is the root cause of the unsustainable problem of basic pension insurance.And through the comparison between the pay-as-you-go system and the fund-based basic pension insurance model,the problem of selection of basic pension insurance mode is preliminarily explored.By sorting out the existing literatures related to the sustainability of basic pension insurance,the connotation of the sustainability of basic pension insurance is defined,the factors affecting the sustainability of basic pension insurance are summarized,and the optimization of the basic pension insurance system is discussed?The second part is the theoretical basis applied in this research.The theoretical basis is divided into two aspects: the existing theory and the new theory proposed in this research.Among the existing theories,the theory of long-wave economic cycle and demographic transition is the theoretical basis for the analysis of the external environment of basic pension insurance in this article.The theory of labor market integration is the theoretical basis of the national pooling of basic pension insurance.Public choice theory is the theoretical basis for the progressive delay of retirement policy.Welfare economics is the theoretical basis to ensure the external security of the capital chain of basic pension insurance.Risk management theory is the theoretical basis to guarantee the internal security of the capital chain of basic pension insurance.Among the new theories put forward by the research,the basic attributes of social security is the theoretical basis for the choice of basic pension insurance model.The theory of innovation source of social security is the theoretical basis for the smooth transition from the central adjustment system to the national pooling of pension fund?The third part is the analysis of the external and internal environment of the basic pension insurance.From the results of external environment analysis,the development of basic pension insurance is facing a complex and severe external environment.Judging from the results of internal environment analysis,the operating status of the basic pension insurance model of “integration of pooling and accounting”is not optimistic,and the factors that bring pressure on financial revenue and expenditure are complex and diverse?The fourth part is the strategic management of basic pension insurance.Under the basic pension insurance model of the EDB-type pay-as-you-go system,this study,based on the connotation of the sustainable basic pension insurance,summarizes the main contradictions affecting the sustainable basic pension insurance through the important research entry of financial income and expenditure balance.And based on the analysis of the main contradictions,the overall strategic plan for the sustainable development of the basic pension insurance is proposed.The goal of the strategic plan is to achieve the sustainable development of basic pension insurance.The specific content of the plan includes: improving the government’s organizational and management capabilities in social security projects,implementing a delayed retirement plan that increases the minimum payment period,realizing the path arrangement of the transition from the central adjustment fund system to the national pooling,and constructing the security mode of the fund chain of the basic pension insurance;The fifth part is the evaluation of the strategic plan of the basic pension insurance.Considering that the strategic management objective is highly result-oriented,the research focuses on the implementation of the strategic management plan of the basic pension insurance to evaluate the population structure of participants in the basic pension insurance and the improvement effect of the fund income and expenditure.The results show that the strategic plan of basic pension insurance proposed in this article can optimize the population structure of the basic pension insurance participants and improve the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund significantly during the investigation period.If the plan is implemented,it will be able to achieve the ultimate goal of strategic management.The main innovations and contributions of this article are as follows:(1)Put forward the sustainable connotation of basic pension insurance:From the dimension of culture perspective,emphasis should be placed on the unity of social justice and economic efficiency.From the dimension of time perspective,emphasis should be placed on achieving the unity of current financial solvency and medium-and long-term financial solvency under the premise of providing sufficient basic pension benefits.From the dimension of space perspective,under the premise of fully considering the maximum common divisor of interests,the unification of social security responsibility and rights between governments should be realized.This definition is different from the partial generalization of related definitions in the past,but comprehensively and profoundly demonstrates the sustainable connotation of basic pension insurance.Under the guidance of this new definition,this study explores the strategic management of basic pension insurance.(2)Put forward the connotation of the basic attributes of social security:namely,mutual aid,efficiency,fairness and Institutional nature.And we pointed out the mutual aid is the core attribute of social security,it is the key to balance the fairness and efficiency of social security,and discussed the more complex interaction and influence relationship between the basic attributes.The proposed connotation of the basic attributes of social security laid the academic foundation for the choice of the basic pension insurance model.(3)Through a quantitative model,the concept of innovation source of social security is proposed:The innovation source of social security refers to the structural adjustment between the“quantity”and “system”in social security.The process of structural adjustment between the“quantity”and “system”in social security will form the original driving force for the innovation source of social security.Under the impact of the innovation source of social security,the government’s fiscal responsibility for social security will be strengthened,the efficiency of fiscal social security expenditures will be improved,and the structure of expenditures will be optimized,which in turn will bring spillover effects to the supply side.Before the innovation source of social security theory was put forward,scholars generally believed that social security could effectively affect the demand side,but there were disputes about whether it could positively affect the supply side.The theory of innovation source of social security reveals the influence mechanism of social security on the supply-side industrial structure adjustment,thus confirming that social security has a positive impact on the supply-side.This also means that the basic pension insurance,as an important subsystem of the social security system,can also affect the supply side of the economic system.The idea of innovation source of social security points out the direction for the smooth transition from the central adjustment system of pension fund to the national pooling.(4)Innovatively put forward the basic pension insurance strategic overall plan.Among them,improving the government’s ability to organize and manage basic pension insurance projects,increasing the minimum payment period in progressively delayed retirement plan,realizing the path arrangement for the transition from the central adjustment system of the pension insurance fund to the national pooling plan,and building a basic pension insurance fund chain security model are contributions with theoretical and practical value in the article.(5)Combined with relevant census data,a simulation study of the population structure of the basic pension insurance system for enterprise employees is realized.Through innovative algorithms,the real dependency ratios of different insured groups in the system under the scenarios of no delayed retirement and delayed retirement,the size of the stable contributor population and the death situation of the insured population in the basic pension insurance system of enterprise employees from 2020 to 2070 are clearly depicted.This laid a demographic foundation for in-depth exploration of the sustainability of basic pension insurance.