Research On The Mechanism Driving Consumption Upgrading In China’s Urban Agglomerations

After the reform and opening up,China has achieved rapid and stable economic growth through investment and trade.However,due to the instability and uncertainty of the external environment in recent years and the structural overcapacity of varying degrees in the field of domestic investment,the sustained momentum of economic growth is obviously insufficient and downward pressure on economic growth is severe.In this context,consumption,as one of the "horse-drawn carriage" to stimulate economic growth,must undertake an important mission.According to the actual situation of the domestic consumption market,despite the continuous growth of the level of residents’ income all the year round,the resident consumption rate has been at a low level,once as low as 49.3%in 2010.Although it rose to 55.8% in 2019,affected by the COVID-19,the resident consumption rate in 2020 dropped to 54.3%,which is far from the consumption rate of about 80% in general developed countries.The consumption structure of residents also has the phenomenon of slow upgrading.During 1978-2020,the average annual growth rate of urban residents’ expenditure on health care,culture,education,entertainment and other development and enjoyment consumption was 13.2%,but during 2008-2020,the average annual growth rate decreased to 6.8%.Therefore,at this stage,how to effectively activate the domestic consumer market and transform consumption potential into actual consumption demand is an urgent problem to be solved.As the advanced stage of urbanization development,urban agglomeration is not only the expansion of urban scale in geographical space,but also the process of reallocation of population,industry,infrastructure and other elements.In the urban agglomeration,there will be obvious characteristics of decentralized regional agglomeration of resource elements,focusing on population agglomeration,industrial agglomeration,infrastructure construction,etc.With the agglomeration of these resource elements,residents’ lifestyle and consumption behavior will also change.Therefore,as the main carrier of urbanization in the future,urban agglomeration,in addition to stimulating economic growth on the investment side,is also one of the important ways to activate the potential of the domestic consumer market on the consumer side,and plays an important role in alleviating the"triple pressure" of current demand contraction,supply shock,and expected weakening.How to drive consumption upgrading in urban agglomeration is one of the important focuses of China’s future sustainable economic growth.Based on this,along the logic of"determining research content→combing literature and theory→mechanism analysis→empirical analysis→institutional improvement",this dissertation selects the relatively mature Beijing Tianjin Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,and Chengdu Chongqing urban agglomeration as research samples to systematically study the mechanism of urban agglomeration driving consumption upgrading.This dissertation focuses on the following four aspects:(1)Concept definition and literature review.By reviewing the existing consumption theories and urban development theories,define the concepts of urban agglomeration and consumption upgrading,and clarify the research object of this dissertation.(2)Mechanism analysis.On the basis of summarizing,sorting out and summarizing the existing research literature and theories,the dissertation deduces and infers the factors that urban agglomeration drives consumption upgrading through mathematical models,and clarifies the mechanism that urban agglomeration generates regulatory effects through consumption habits,industrial agglomeration forms intermediary effects through residents’income,and transportation infrastructure affects consumption upgrading through affecting the distribution of population agglomeration and industrial agglomeration.(3)Empirical analysis.Through VAR model and VEC model,the causal relationship between urbanization and residents’ consumption behavior is proved.Through spatial panel model,spatial Dubin model,dynamic spatial Dubin model,multi-phase DID model,adjustment effect test,intermediary effect test,etc.,the driving role of urban agglomeration population agglomeration,industry agglomeration,infrastructure construction on consumption upgrading is proved,and the regulatory role of consumption habits,intermediary effect of residents’ income,etc.are tested.(4)System improvement.Put forward countermeasures and suggestions for scientific and reasonable planning of future urban agglomeration from three aspects of population agglomeration,industrial agglomeration and infrastructure construction,so as to improve the overall consumption level of urban agglomeration.This dissertation draws the following conclusions:(1)Urbanization development is the Granger reason for the change of residents’consumption level.Urbanization has a significant positive effect on residents’consumption level,and this effect is sustained for a long time.The impact of the first and second order lag of the urbanization rate of the VAR model on residents’ consumption level is 1.5464 and 0.7849 respectively,and the impact of the difference between the first and second order lag of the urbanization rate of the VEC model on residents’ consumption level is 2.0238 and 0.9462 respectively.The interaction of urbanization rate and residents’income,as well as urbanization rate and consumption habits,have a positive impact on residents’ consumption behavior.(2)From the perspective of urban agglomeration,the impact of urban population size on consumption scale and consumption structure is 1.697 and 0.009 respectively and significant,while the impact of urban and rural population structure on consumption scale and consumption structure is 2.351 and 0.021 respectively and significant.The adjustment effect test proves that the process of urban agglomeration will have a significant positive impact on the consumption scale and consumption structure of local residents through consumption habits.(3)From the perspective of industrial agglomeration in urban agglomeration,the impact of industrial specialization agglomeration on consumption scale and consumption structure is less than that of industrial diversification agglomeration.According to the estimation results of spatial Dubin model,the positive effect of industrial diversification agglomeration in five urban agglomeration on consumption upgrading is slightly better than that of industrial specialization agglomeration,and the impact on consumption structure is more significant.The intermediary effect test proves that the transmission mechanism of industrial agglomeration affecting residents’ income and then consumption upgrading is more significant in the Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta and the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,while in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Chengdu Chongqing urban agglomeration,this transmission mechanism is not significant.(4)Taking high-speed rail as an example,the construction of transport infrastructure has played a significant role in promoting the consumption upgrading of urban agglomerations.Among them.the opening of high-speed rail has played a significant role in promoting the consumption upgrading of Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations,while the opening of high-speed rail has not played a significant role in promoting the consumption upgrading of Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations,the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and Chengdu Chongqing urban agglomerations.From the results of the intermediary effect test,the population agglomeration of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration partly explains the mechanism of urban agglomeration infrastructure driven consumption upgrading;The urban agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River mainly explains the mechanism of transport infrastructure driving consumption upgrading.Similarly,the industrial agglomeration of Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration partly explains the mechanism of high-speed rail opening on consumption upgrading;The industrial clusters in the Pearl River Delta,the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and Chengdu Chongqing urban agglomeration mainly explain the mechanism that the opening of high-speed rail affects consumption upgrading.Possible innovations in this dissertation include:(1)The traditional theory of residents’ consumption behavior mainly starts from the consumption function.This dissertation explains the mechanism of urban agglomeration driving consumption upgrading from the three perspectives of population agglomeration,industrial agglomeration and transportation infrastructure construction in combination with the decentralized regional agglomeration characteristics of urban agglomeration.(2)Through mathematical model and spatial Dubin model,this paper analyzes and empirically tests the mechanism of population agglomeration,industrial agglomeration,and transportation infrastructure construction in urban agglomeration for consumption upgrading,and further explains the role of consumption habits and residents’ income in the process of consumption upgrading driven by urban agglomeration by using regulatory effect and intermediary effect.