Research On Loan Risk Of Credit Mutual Aid Business Of Farmers’ Professional Cooperatives

The credit mutual aid business of farmers’ professional cooperatives is an important part of China’s modern rural financial system.It plays a positive role in alleviating the problem of capital shortage in agricultural and rural production and life,and promoting the revitalization of rural areas.However,at this stage,the credit environment is deteriorating,risk control awareness is not strong,and government supervision is not in place A series of risk problems,such as the policy-making level from the supply and demand situation to encourage its development,in the practical operation level from the risk prevention to limit its development,so the credit mutual aid business of farmers’ professional cooperatives has been greatly affected.In this context,how to give full play to the credit and mutual assistance business of farmers’ professional cooperatives plays an important role in promoting agricultural development,prosperity of rural economy and alleviating farmers’capital demand,while improving their financial risk awareness and promoting the effective allocation of financial resources has important theoretical value and practical significance.By analyzing the behavior characteristics of farmers’ participation in the credit mutual assistance of farmers’ professional cooperatives,this paper judges the source and composition of credit mutual assistance risk of farmers’ professional cooperatives,and gives policy suggestions for risk prevention.Firstly,based on the farmer behavior theory and financial risk theory,this paper constructs the theoretical analysis framework of this study,and introduces the development status of the credit mutual assistance business of farmers’ professional cooperatives in China;secondly,it analyzes the behavior characteristics of farmers’ participation in the credit mutual assistance business of farmers’Professional cooperatives;thirdly,it analyzes the risk formation path of the credit mutual assistance business of farmers’ professional cooperatives Finally,taking the credit mutual aid business of Shengyuan corn professional cooperative in Shunping County as an example,the case verification of risk identification and measurement is carried out.According to the characteristics of small sample,the empirical analysis methods such as partial least squares path model,probability graph model,decision tree model and complex network are used.The conclusions are as follows:(1)the current situation of insufficient supply of rural cooperative finance and farmers’ personal characteristics lead to a large number of farmers participating in the credit mutual assistance business of farmers’ professional cooperatives.At the township and village level,under the premise that the existing rural cooperative finance can not meet the basic financial needs of farmers,in order to alleviate the fund gap in the production and life of farmers,the credit mutual assistance business of farmers’professional cooperatives has played a positive role,in which the personal characteristics of farmers are an important factor affecting their participation.(2)The risk of credit mutual aid business of farmers’ professional cooperatives is formed by the joint action of external financial environment and farmers’ personal characteristics.The farmers who participate in the credit mutual aid business of farmers’ professional cooperatives have significant personal characteristics:the family economic status is relatively good,the level of knowledge and cognition is high;they have certain financial knowledge,are familiar with the rural cooperative financial institutions,and have a more in-depth understanding of the credit mutual assistance business of the farmers’ professional cooperatives;in the process of production and life,they have a large demand for funds,which is easy to be solved There is a shortage of funds.Therefore,under what conditions,the probability of farmers participating in the credit mutual aid business of farmers’ professional cooperatives and appearing loan behavior can reflect the risk.(3)On the basis of the empirical results of risk sources,through case analysis,it is found that the members,especially the core membersThe agglomeration of homogenization characteristics is the main reason that leads to the credit mutual aid business risk of farmers’ professional cooperatives,and also determines the type of risk.(4)According to the analysis results,the study gives the following policy recommendations:promote the development of legislation on the credit mutual aid business of farmers’ professional cooperatives,promote the improvement of the operation mechanism of credit mutual assistance business institutions of farmers’professional cooperatives,improve the internal risk control mechanism of credit mutual assistance business of farmers’ professional cooperatives,and promote the market exit of credit mutual assistance business of farmers’ professional cooperatives The establishment of mechanism.The main innovations of this study are as follows:the formation of the credit mutual aid business risk of farmers’ professional cooperatives is regarded as an action process with hierarchical structure.The probability graph model is used to identify the hierarchical structure,and the decision tree model is used to determine the probability of risk occurrence.Using the method of complex network,this paper analyzes how the characteristics of farmers gather into risks,organically connects the characteristics of farmers and the overall risk of cooperatives,and explains how the risks gather.