| The Belt and Road Initiative is now a multilateral cooperation initiative proposed by China in 2013.Its success or failure is related to China’s future development..Under the Belt and Road Initiative,oil and natural gas are the top priorities of energy cooperation.Cooperative investment can not only ensure the safety of China’s oil and gas supply,but also provide experience for cooperation in other areas between China and countries along the Belt and Road Initiative.The Belt and Road Initiative is a huge opportunity for China’s oil and gas investment.However,due to the differences in legal systems,political culture,and economic foundations of countries along the Belt and Road Initiative,oil and gas investment faces a large variety of risks.It is necessary to conduct risk management on oil and gas investment.Studying the risk management of China’s oil and gas investment in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative can effectively avoid and reduce oil and gas investment risks,thereby ensuring the smooth progress of China’s investment in oil and gas projects in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative.This reserach aiming at the following four aspects mainly:(1)Analyzes the background of China’s oil and gas investment in countries along with the Belt and Road Initiative.Through the oil and gas production and reserves of countries along the Belt and Road Initiative,22 countries were selected as the research objects,which includes Malaysia,Indonesia,Myanmar,Brunei,Philippines,Iran,Iraq,Syria,Saudi Arabia,Yemen,Oman,United Arab Emirates,Qatar,Kuwait,India,etc.(2)Combined the questionnaire survey method and the expert consultation method to identify the investment risks of 22 countries in the major oil and gas resource countries along the Belt and Road Initiative.Based on the rating agencies and academic evaluation index system,this paper constructs a five-dimensional risk evaluation index system for China’s oil and gas investment in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative,which is based on political risk indicators,economic risk indicators,resource risk indicators,environmental risk indicators,and business risk indicators.(3)Conducts a quantitative analysis and research on China’s use of a two-stage DEA-improvement model for oil and gas investment risks in countries along with the Belt and Road Initiative.The overall trend of oil and gas investment risks from 2014 to 2019 is that countries with high risks for oil and gas investment have decreased,countries with medium risks for oil and gas investment have increased significantly,and countries with low oil and gas investment risks have decreased.Among them,most countries with low investment risks have better political and economic environments;most countries with medium investment risks have relatively good political and economic environments.Most of the countries are developing countries with fast economic development but lack sufficient funds to build their own economies;most countries with high investment risks have complex geopolitical situations,poor social security,high political risks,high internal contradictions within the country and poor investment environment.Then use China’s oil and gas investment forecasts model,investment optimization model and scenario analysis on the Belt and Road Initiative to get predictions that four investment countries are divided: encourage investment countries,recommend investment countries,maintain investment countries,and prudently investment countries.Analysis and investment suggestions are given for these 22 countries.(4)Combines the results of China’s the Belt and Road Initiative oil and gas investment risk evaluation and optimization forecasting future results,and proposes a political risk control plan,an economic risk control plan,a resource risk control plan,an environmental risk control plan,and a business risk control plan.It also puts forward the implementation steps and guarantee suggestions for the risk management plan for the risk control plan.This article strives to provide theoretical guidance and action guidance for China to better respond to the oil and gas investment risks of the Belt and Road Initiative. |
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