| The change of exchange rate has always been the focus of academia and decisionmaking departments.At present,novel coronavirus pneumonia is spreading worldwide,and the world is undergoing a great change.The deep recession of the world economy,the destruction of economic globalization,and the increasing Sino US trade frictions have amplified the fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate,which has brought a severe test to China’s foreign trade environment.At the same time,China’s foreign trade enterprises are facing more and more international trade risks,and the most common is exchange rate risk.As the intermediary of commodity transactions between different countries or regions,when the exchange rate changes,it will cause the price of tradable commodities between different countries or regions to change,and the price change of tradable commodities will directly affect the cost and income of import and export firms,which is related to the survival and development of enterprises.How Chinese import and export firms deal with the change of exchange rate and how the change of exchange rate affects their import and export behavior has become an urgent problem to be solved.The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of exchange rate changes on firms’ import and export behavior,so as to provide reference for realizing China’s balanced trade development and promoting China’s high-quality economic development.Firstly,understand the change and reform process of RMB exchange rate and the realistic background of China’s manufacturing import and export trade,and clarify the research purpose and significance of this topic.Then,according to the selected topic,sort out the relevant research literature at home and abroad,and find the theoretical basis and research content to be further supplemented and improved.In order to further understand the impact of exchange rate changes on China’s trade balance,this paper explores the impact of exchange rate changes on firm import behavior and firm export behavior.Based on the practical significance of the research,the explained variables are subdivided to explore the impact of exchange rate movement on firm import and export decision-making behavior,enterprise import diversification level and multi product enterprise export dynamics,forming the main research content of this paper.The specific research contents and main conclusions are as follows:First,study the impact of exchange rate movement on firms’ import decision-making behavior.Based on the monopoly competition model of import firms,this paper constructs the analysis framework of endogenous determinants of import decision-making behavior of Chinese enterprises.Using the sample of China Customs and industrial enterprise merger database from 2010 to 2015,this paper empirically tests the impact of exchange rate changes on China’s enterprises’ import decision-making behaviors such as import scale and import tendency.Then the heterogeneity analysis is carried out from the aspects of enterprise nature,enterprise scale and enterprise export status.Considering the different values of these variables may have a heterogeneous impact on the import decision-making behavior of firms due to the change of exchange rate.In addition,Heckman two-step method and fixed firm import share are used to further solve the endogenous problem of the model,and the Probit and Tobit estimation methods are used to test the robustness.Finally,it further analyzes the impact of exchange rate movement and import trade on firm performance.It is found that the rise of RMB real exchange rate not only significantly promotes the increase of firm import scale,but also improves the tendency of firms to participate in the import market,and this conclusion is robust;The results of heterogeneity analysis show that the appreciation of RMB real exchange rate has a significant negative impact on the import decision-making behavior of state-owned enterprises.It plays a greater role in promoting small-scale enterprises than large-scale enterprises,and in promoting non export firms(pure import firms)than export firms(both import and export firms);The extensive analysis further shows that the rise of RMB real exchange rate improves firm productivity and promotes firm product quality upgrading and firm innovation through "import learning effect","import scale effect" and "import quality effect".Second,study the impact of exchange rate movement on firm import diversification.Based on the monopoly competition model of import firms,this paper constructs the analysis framework of endogenous determinants of import behavior of Chinese firms.Using the sample of China Customs and industrial enterprise merger database from 2010 to 2015,this paper empirically tests the impact of exchange rate movement on the number of import source countries and types of imported products of Chinese firms from the firm product level.Then it makes a heterogeneity analysis from the aspects of firm nature,firm scale and firm export status,and considers that the different values of these variables may have a heterogeneous impact on the change of exchange rate and the level of firm import diversification.In addition,the endogenous problem of the model is further solved,and the robustness test is carried out by deleting extreme values,changing sample cycle and changing econometric model.Finally,it further analyzes the impact of exchange rate changes,the level of import diversification and firm performance.It is found that the rise(decline)of RMB real exchange rate significantly promotes(inhibits)the increase of the types of imported products and the number of import source countries,which preliminarily shows that RMB appreciation is conducive to the improvement of the level of import diversification of Chinese firms,and this conclusion is robust;The results of heterogeneity analysis show that the rise of RMB real exchange rate has a significant negative impact on the improvement of import diversification level of stateowned enterprises.The import diversification level of large-scale firms is more affected by exchange rate changes than that of medium and small-scale firms,and the import diversification level of export firms is more affected by exchange rate changes than that of non-export enterprises;The expansionary analysis further shows that the rise of RMB real exchange rate significantly improves firm performance by improving the level of firm import diversification.Third,study the impact of exchange rate changes on firms’ export decisions.Based on the theoretical analysis framework,the corresponding measurement model is constructed.Using the sample of China Customs and industrial enterprise merger database from 2010 to2015,this paper empirically studies the impact of exchange rate changes on export decisionmaking behaviors such as export scale and export tendency.Then it makes a heterogeneity analysis from the aspects of firm nature,firm scale and labor cost,and considers that the different values of these variables may have a heterogeneous impact on the change of exchange rate on the export decision-making behavior of firms.In addition,different estimation methods and variable measurement indicators are used to verify the robustness of the results.Finally,the impact of firm export on enterprise innovation performance is further analyzed.It is found that the rise(fall)of RMB real exchange rate significantly inhibits(promotes)the increase of enterprise export tendency and enterprise export scale,and the above conclusion is robust;The results of heterogeneity analysis show that for large-scale enterprises and state-owned enterprises,the rise of RMB exchange rate will increase their export tendency and export scale.It is proved that the labor cost can regulate the change of exchange rate and firm export.Properly maintaining the synchronous rise of wage level and labor productivity can alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation and reduce the negative impact of RMB appreciation on enterprise export to a certain extent.Fourth,study the impact of exchange rate changes on the export behavior of China’s multi product firms: from the perspective of heterogeneity of financing constraints.Using the sample of China Customs and industrial enterprise merger database from 2010 to 2015,this paper empirically tests the impact of exchange rate changes and financing constraints on the export price,export quantity,export product type,export product concentration and other export behaviors of China’s multi product firms from the product level.Then it analyzes the heterogeneity from the aspects of enterprise total factor productivity,enterprise nature and geographical location,and considers the heterogeneous impact of different values of these variables on exchange rate changes,financing constraints and export behavior of China’s multi product enterprises.In addition,the robustness test is carried out by replacing the explained variable index and replacing the econometric model estimation method to verify the robustness of the benchmark regression results.It is found that the rise of RMB real exchange rate will reduce the export price of multi product enterprises,reduce the quantity of products,reduce the types of products,and improve the concentration of products;The decline of RMB real exchange rate will lead to the rise of enterprise product export price,the increase of product export quantity,the increase of product export types,and the decrease of product export concentration;In addition,the study also found that when facing the change of RMB real exchange rate,the export behavior of China’s multi-product export firms has strong heterogeneity: when the RMB depreciates,the enterprises with low financing constraints or high productivity have a relatively large adjustment range of product export price,while the multi product firms with low financing constraints,The non core distribution of its export products is also obvious.When people appreciate,enterprises with high productivity will significantly reduce product production lines and improve product export concentration.Based on the research conclusions of this paper,the following countermeasures and suggestions are put forward:(1)further improve the import supporting policies,improve the level of import trade facilitation,actively expand the import scale,optimize the import structure,and promote the healthy and balanced development of foreign trade.(2)Grasp the rhythm and range of RMB exchange rate appreciation and avoid the negative impact of excessive appreciation on the domestic real economy and export sectors.(3)Promote the reform and improvement of China’s financial market system,develop multi-level capital market,improve the financing environment of export firms and reduce their credit constraints.It is expected that the research of this paper can provide theoretical and practical reference for realizing the balanced development of China’s trade and promoting the high-quality development of China’s economy. |
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