| The world is currently in a unique and irreversible process,and the adjustment of the population structure will lead to an increase in the agglomeration of the elderly population.The aging level of China’s population will surpass that of the United States around 2040,and the proportion of China’s aging population will reach 24% in2050.The rapid increase in the proportion of China’s elderly population will have a direct impact on China’s labor supply structure and economic and industrial structure,and will also have a profound impact on the real estate industry closely related to the elderly.Using a combination of normative research and empirical research,this paper conducts a multi-dimensional empirical study on the evolution law of American pension real estate companies from 2008 to 2019,the operating model,the basis for the formation of the operating model,and the impact of the operating model on corporate performance.Research may be one of the effective ways to understand and solve the "what to do" of China’s pension real estate industry at present and in the future.This paper finds the following economic phenomena in the US pension real estate industry:There are five types of senior housing products in the United States,namely independent senior housing,senior apartments,nursing homes,nursing homes,and senior communities.Among them,senior communities are the most mature and common senior housing products in the United States.In descending order,the proportions are professional nursing community,assisted living community,independent living community and continuous nursing community.The profitability,profitability and solvency of US senior real estate enterprises are on the decline;the evolution law of the US senior real estate industry shows that the elderly The main body of the real estate industry has changed from "unipolar government-led" to "non-governmental organization-led",the form of fees has changed from "free" to "rental or sold",and the pension targets have changed from "the vulnerable elderly who have nothing to rely on" to "the elderly who take care of themselves completely" is an inevitable trend.From the perspective of economic foundation,the health industry in the United States has gradually developed into a pillar industry in the United States,and the elderly care real estate industry is the key driving force for the health industry.The increase in the income of the elderly will help improve the quality of elderly care facilities;from the perspective of social foundation,urbanization differences promote The development of pension real estate is uneven among regions.The developed capital market has created convenient conditions for the financing of pension real estate enterprises.The developed financial industry in the United States has promoted the formation of a strong capital market and improved the efficiency of capital allocation.From the perspective of the system,the free market economy The system is the fundamental premise for the good operation of American senior care real estate enterprises,and a sound legal system is the basic guarantee for the orderly development of senior care real estate enterprises;government encouragement policies are the key driving force for the development of senior care real estate enterprises,and the internal supervision mechanism of the industry ensures the high quality of the senior care real estate industry.From the perspective of technical foundation,the regional gap in the application of information technology in the field of senior care real estate has gradually narrowed,and smart senior care is already at a mature stage in the United States.The development cycle of senior care real estate projects significantly exceeds that of traditional real estate projects.The most common form of financing for senior care real estate companies in the United States is the establishment of senior care real estate trust investment funds,and the government provides policy guarantees and support for the financing of senior care real estate companies.Diversified development generally includes developer-led,investor-led,and operator-led models;there is no unified paradigm for the management of elderly care communities in the United States,but in general,they can be divided into independent living,assisted living,professional nursing,and loss of life.There are five community management models in total,including intelligent care and continuous care.For the sample enterprises under the financing model dominated by trust investment funds and the business model dominated by investors,the change in the proportion of equity financing and corporate performance is in the same direction,and the proportion of debt financing is in the opposite direction.Limited;for the sample companies under the non-trust investment fund-based financing model and the operator-led business model,the proportion of equity financing and debt financing has an inverse relationship with corporate performance,and major shareholders can play a supervisory role at the corporate governance level;The increase in agency costs,the proportion of the elderly population and the proportion of the income of the elderly population has a positive impact on the performance of different types of elderly care real estate companies.To sum up,the development of China’s senior care real estate enterprises still faces difficulties such as sticking to the traditional concept of senior care,insufficient effective demand for senior care real estate,more emphasis on real estate than senior care,unsound policies and regulations and great uncertainty,and difficult financing for senior care real estate.Based on China’s national conditions and drawing lessons from the development experience of American senior care real estate enterprises,policy recommendations are put forward from two levels of macro system construction and micro foundation to ensure the development of senior care real estate enterprises.First of all,at the macro-system construction level of the development of China’s elderly care real estate industry,four key measures are taken: first,to change the government’s concept and strengthen publicity;second,to implement government leadership and multi-party participation to promote the development of private elderly care;Industrial regulations and policies system;Fourth,based on national conditions,eliminate land finance,and steadily develop China’s pension real estate system.Secondly,at the micro-foundation level to strengthen the development of China’s senior care real estate industry,we will focus on three measures: first,to cultivate a professional senior care service team and improve service levels;second,to lock in market risks and develop popular commercial senior care real estate projects as needed;The third is to lock in policy risks and develop affordable pension real estate projects according to the scale of government plans... |
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