| Digital currency,as a new format in the financial industry in recent years,has grown from the background of the development of financial technology.In the development process of digital currency,its impact on international trade settlement has both positive driving effects and negative financial risks.With the deepening of the development of digital currency and the further expansion of the level of influence,cross-border digital currency supervision has become a focus area for resolving systemic risks,and related research on digital currency has also become one of the key topics in international finance and international trade.With the evolution of digital currencies,the price of Bitcoin fluctuates sharply,and Libra and central bank digital currencies are about to emerge.These will have an impact on the global financial system and monetary policy.In developed countries in Europe and the United States,there have been many empirical and theoretical studies on private encrypted digital currencies,and foreign scholars have achieved certain results in research in related fields.However,China’s theoretical research on digital currency is still lacking,especially the lack of systematic research on the impact of digital currency on international trade settlement,which is inconsistent with China’s status as a central bank’s global leader in digital currency research and development and a major trading country.By combining the practice and theory of digital currency,this article combs the development status of global digital currency and China’s digital renminbi,theoretically discusses the influence mechanism and supervision methods of digital currency on international trade settlement,and then uses Bitcoin’s price risk prevention Take the central bank digital currency financial disintermediation effect as an example,analyze the impact of digital currency on international trade settlement,and finally draw the main conclusions and policy recommendations of this article.First of all,this article sorts out the development status of digital currency and international trade settlement.Starting with the improvement of traditional payment methods by financial technology,from third-party Internet payment to mobile payment to Bitcoin,as well as the upcoming Libra and digital RMB,digital currencies have greatly changed the traditional payment methods.However,digital currency not only affects domestic settlement efficiency,it will also have a profound impact on crossborder payments.The traditional international settlement system is a central system represented by the U.S.dollar.With the introduction of the central bank’s digital currency,the traditional international settlement system will be optimized and even have a disruptive impact.Secondly,this article analyzes the influence mechanism of digital currency on international trade settlement.By combing through the relationship between digital currency,comparative advantage and international trade settlement theory,it is concluded that digital currency has provided impetus for developing countries to gradually accumulate dynamic comparative advantages in the financial services industry.Then analyze the impact and characteristics of the cost mechanism,risk mechanism and externality mechanism of digital currency on international trade settlement,based on the theory of comparative advantage,financial innovation and international settlement theory,systematically analyze the positive and negative externalities of cross-border digital currency And on the basis of the risks to traditional finance,a game model for the supervision of cross-border digital currencies has been constructed,and it is concluded that the regulatory sandbox system is more suitable for the development of cross-border digital currency businesses.Thirdly,due to the many shortcomings of the traditional international payment and settlement system,this article qualitatively analyzes the improvement and challenges of cross-border payment settlement based on digital currency.Digital currency has not yet matured,especially the private encrypted digital currency represented by Bitcoin.The volatility is large,so that it cannot be used as a cross-border payment medium.To better utilize the advantages of the digital currency international payment and settlement system,a series of measures still need to be taken to improve it.An empirical analysis of Bitcoin price risk was carried out using event analysis and time series models,and the results showed that the price of Bitcoin is greatly affected by shortterm events and its own price,there are obvious risks,and it does not have payment attributes.Libra may also infringe on the monetary sovereignty of other countries,causing risks.From the second point of view,this article takes the central bank digital currency as an example to discuss the financial disintermediation caused by digital currency and its impact on trade settlement.Through the construction of a model,an in-depth analysis of the impact of financial disintermediation caused by the central bank’s digital currency on international trade settlement is made,and it is clear that the central bank’s digital currency will replace traditional currencies on a large scale.Influence.In the long run,based on the formation of the traditional international currency system,the use of digital currency will improve the cross-border payment system,and the gradual application of digital currency in the field of international trade settlement will improve the imbalance of the international currency system.Finally,this article gives conclusions and policy recommendations.The research conclusions show that it is necessary to use a regulatory sandbox to supervise crossborder digital currency business;digital currency can improve the efficiency of international trade settlement,but Bitcoin is not competent due to price fluctuations,Libra is struggling because of the issue of monetary sovereignty;after the introduction of central bank digital currency,it will gradually replace traditional currencies.Reduce the cost of international trade settlement and gradually improve the international monetary system.Subsequently,relevant policy recommendations are given:After clarifying the attributes and risk characteristics of digital currencies,learning from foreign regulatory experience,we put forward China’s regulatory recommendations.One is to clarify the law of digital currency development and regulatory framework;the other is to establish inclusive regulation System;The third is to establish a differentiated and consistent regulatory system;the fourth is to use regulatory technology to supervise digital currency business.Subsequently,strategies for the improvement of digital currency were given,including strengthening technological breakthroughs and innovations,preventing digital currency risks,strengthening the supervision of digital currency,and improving the research and development and design of digital renminbi.Regarding how to use digital currency for cross-border payment and settlement,consider building a distributed cross-border payment and financial transaction platform in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and building a bilateral or multilateral distributed cross-border payment network to promote the application of digital currency in the field of cross-border payments. |
