| The mode of urban development presents obvious characteristics of periodic changes,which is a unique phenomenon in the process of urban development in China.In 2015,the mode of urban development in China should be transformed from"extension expansion" to "connotation promotion" was explicitly proposed.Under the guidance of the priority strategy of economic growth after the reform and opening up,through the reform of the land use system and the establishment of the "land financing"investment and financing mode,China’s cities have achieved rapid urbanization and unconventional development of infrastructure,and have got rid of the situation of"passive contraction" of China’s urban development due to the implementation of the priority strategy of heavy industry development in the planned economy period.As the transfer of urban construction land can bring financial benefits to local governments,the expansion of urban land space is in line with the interests of local governments.Chinese cities gradually take "extension expansion" as the leading way of development.In response to the financial crisis in 2008,China has adopted a government investment stimulus plan with large-scale infrastructure construction as the main content,and Chinese cities have entered an era of overall extension and expansion.However,the extensive expansion of urban development mode has caused a series of problems in local debt,overcapacity,land use and other aspects.As a result,China’s urbanization policy and main tasks began to adjust,and China’s urban development mode transformed to a more intensive direction.However,the transformation always coexists with the unknown risks.By examining the economic impact of China’s urban development mode,this paper aims to explore the possible economic consequences of the transformation of urban development mode,so as to provide some reference for the promotion and implementation of China’s urban development in the future.Local governments play a leading role in China’s urban development.Compared with long-term sustainable tax revenue,they prefer short-term land rent revenue as the main driving force of China’s urban expansion.This paper chooses the perspective of China’s local government’s renttax structure:the ratio of the revenue from land transfer of local governments to the tax revenue within the general budget is used as a variable indicator to measure the urban development mode,and then examines its role in economic growth,enterprise production and labor force mobility.The paper has done the following work:First of all,the evolution and adjustment path of Chinese urban development mode are investigated.This paper holds that the choice of urban development mode in China is determined by macro-economic development strategy and land use system,in which the government will and its incentive guidance play an important role.In the period of planned economy,due to the implementation of catch-up strategy and the lack of paid land use system,urban development was deliberately restrained by the government;however,under the guidance of the priority strategy of reform and opening-up economic growth,as the transfer of urban construction land can promote infrastructure construction investment and urbanization,and create direct financial benefits for local governments,Chinese cities began to expand.The strategy of high-quality economic development takes the initiative to lower the economic growth target,solve the social and economic problems such as high leverage rate,and at the same time,the relevant land-use system reform makes China’s urban development mode begin to transform to the direction of connotation improvement.Secondly,it studies the influence of urbanization process on the economic growth effect of China’s urban development mode transformation.The results show that there is a threshold of urbanization rate,and the influence of urban development mode on economic growth is different.For the cities in which urbanization rate is less than the threshold value,improving the structure of local government’s rent-tax structure and adopting a more extensive and expanding urban development mode will lead to the decline of per capita GDP;on the right side of the threshold value of urbanization rate,the urban development mode has no significant statistical correlation with economic growth.The results show that for Chinese local governments,the meaning of urbanization rate is not the potential of urban expansion,but the ability of agglomeration of economic factors.As a verification,from the perspective of the flow of economic factors,the heterogeneity of the impact of urban development mode on economic growth is examined.By dividing cities according to region,administrative level and population flow,this paper studies their heterogeneity and the heterogeneity of time dimension.The regression results support the understanding of urbanization rate in China.In terms of impact mechanism,the study founds that urban development mode can affect urban economic growth through the mechanism of urban housing price and urban investment and debt.Thirdly,the effect of urban development mode on enterprise productivity and resource mismatch is studied.The results show that:on the one hand,the extension of urban development mode promotes the productivity of enterprises by reducing the financing cost and increasing the amount of debt financing,but the significance of this impact is greatly reduced after the large-scale stimulus plan in 2009.At the same time,the promotion of the extended urban development mode to the enterprise productivity mainly lies in the private enterprises,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan or foreign-funded enterprises.At the level of regional heterogeneity,the expansion of urban development mode has a positive effect on the productivity of enterprises in eastern cities,but has a negative but not significant impact on the cities in the central and western regions.On the other hand,the expansion of urban development can distort the efficiency of resource allocation by increasing the actual tax burden of enterprises at the local government level.From the perspective of enterprise heterogeneity,the negative impact of the extended urban development mode on the efficiency of resource allocation is more obvious among private enterprises,Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan or foreign-funded enterprises,while from the perspective of regional heterogeneity,the negative impact mainly exists in the eastern cities.Finally,the effect of urban development mode on the choice of labor mobility between cities is investigated.As a new perspective to explain the choice of migrant workers’ inter city mobility,the results show that the expansion of urban development can significantly reduce the attractiveness of cities to migrant workers.The impact is mainly achieved by increasing the uncertainty of living in the city and reducing the income level of the labor force.The research results of heterogeneity show that the urban development mode of connotation upgrading is more attractive to the young labor force and the ones without social security.In terms of urban heterogeneity,the expansion and development of port cities and large cities is conducive to attracting the floating labor resources,while inland cities and small cities need to transform the urban development mode.Compared with the northern cities,the expansion of the southern cities has less negative impact on the choice of migrant labor inflow,while the special zone cities and the cities with separate planning have higher demand for the transformation of urban development mode.In terms of research methods,qualitative and quantitative research methods are used.The qualitative research method is mainly based on the existing economic theory,which is used to derive the theoretical hypothesis.In the study of the effect of urban development mode on the decision-making of labor mobility,a simple theoretical model is constructed to analyze the mechanism and make the corresponding comparative static analysis.As an empirical research,quantitative research methods are econometric models,including panel threshold model,bootstrap self-help method,panel fixed effect model,multi-dimensional fixed effect linear model,conditional logit model.At the same time,in each part of the robustness test,the paper uses the tool variable(Ⅳ),first-order difference GMM,System GMM,panel Poisson and panel negative binomial.In addition,in the mechanism research of each part,the intermediary effect test is used.This paper examines the economic impact of the transformation of urban development mode from multiple dimensions,and the conclusions can provide empirical support for local governments to choose urban development mode in the transformation period;supplement and enrich the decision-making information needed by local governments when making policies related to enterprise production and talent competition;at the same time,provide reference for the reform of local officials’incentive assessment mechanism.The research of this paper has a certain application value for the next round of high-quality development of China’s urbanization and related policy reform.The main policy suggestions include that the transformation of urban development mode needs to implement policies according to the city,and strictly control the scale of construction land in the areas where factors flow out;Increase the rent-tax structure of local governments as an indicator to assess the transformation of urban development mode and local officials;Deal with the possible risks in the transformation of urban development mode. |
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