| In 2013,Xi Jinping put forward the "Belt and Road Initiative" construction initiative,and the investment in large-scale projects of the "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor"(hereinafter referred to as "the corridor")is an important part of the "Belt and Road Initiative" construction.With the continuous deepening of large-scale project investment in the corridor,the factors that induce the financial risk of large-scale project investment in the corridor continue to gather.At present,it is urgent to identify,control and resolve the financial risks that may occur in the investment of large-scale projects in the corridor,which is not only related to whether the investment of large-scale projects in the corridor can be carried out smoothly.moreover,it has important practical significance to promote the energy strategic security and social and economic development of our country.For the research on the inducing factors of the financial risk of the corridor large-scale project investment,we need to consider the external and internal uncertainty and external and internal financing constraints faced by the corridor large-scale project investment at the same time.How to scientifically and reasonably clarify the inducing factors of the investment financial risk of large-scale projects in the corridor from the perspective of uncertainty and financing constraints is not only an urgent problem to be solved,but also the core issue of this paper.Therefore,on the basis of drawing lessons from the literature at home and abroad,from the perspective of uncertainty and financing constraints,according to the principle of "cost-benefit",and on the basis of relaxing the basic assumptions of neoclassical investment theory,based on the theory of real options and financing constraints,and according to the general situation of corridor large-scale project investment and its financial risk,this paper analyzes the financial risk inducing factors of corridor large-scale project investment.Furthermore,the inducement of investment financial risk of large-scale project in corridor is identified from external and internal uncertainty and external and internal financing constraints,and the empirical model is used to test the inducing factors of investment financial risk of large-scale project in corridor.Thus,policy suggestions are put forward to reduce the financial risk of large-scale project investment in the corridor.The empirical results show that the lower the degree of irreversibility of assets,the less the possibility of financial risk of large-scale project investment induced by external uncertainty;the more abundant the internal cash flow of the enterprise,the less the possibility of financial risk of large-scale project investment induced by internal uncertainty;the better the financing environment of the investment host country,the less likely the financial risk of large-scale project investment induced by external financing constraints.The higher the level of net wealth of large-scale project investment,the smaller the financial risk of large-scale project investment induced by internal financing constraints.Furthermore,this paper introduces three channels: the cycle of macroeconomic development,the political system of the host country and the income of the host country to identify the transmission channels of financial risks caused by external uncertainty in large-scale project investment.The results show that the macro-economy is in a period of severe fluctuation,and the possibility of financial risk of large-scale project investment induced by external uncertainty increases;the lower the political system risk of the host country is,the smaller the possibility of financial risk of large-scale project investment induced by external uncertainty is;when the host country of enterprise large-scale project investment is a high-income country,the possibility of financial risk of large-scale project investment induced by external uncertainty increases.Then,this paper introduces the two channels of enterprise technological innovation capability and enterprise industry cycle to identify the transmission channels of financial risks caused by internal uncertainty in large-scale project investment.The results show that the higher the enterprise’s technological innovation capability is,the greater the possibility of financial risk of large-scale project investment induced by internal uncertainty is;when the enterprise large-scale project investment is a cyclical industry,the possibility of large-scale project investment financial risk induced by internal uncertainty increases.Then,the function channel of industry competition degree is introduced to identify the transmission channel of financial risk of large-scale project investment caused by external and internal uncertainty.The results show that the lower the degree of competition in the industry,the less likely the financial risk of large-scale project investment induced by external and internal uncertainty.Compared with the existing domestic literature,this paper makes the following useful attempts: first of all,from the research perspective,this paper synthesizes the previous studies,constructs the research framework of the financial risk inducing factors of corridor large-scale project investment from the perspective of uncertainty and financing constraints,and focuses on identifying the external and internal uncertainties,external financing constraints and internal financing constraints on the corridor large-scale project investment financial risk inducement.Secondly,on the basis of the research theory,the basic assumption of neoclassical investment theory is relaxed,that is,considering the uncertainty,reversibility and waiting value of investment,the financial risk of large-scale project investment induced by external uncertainty is analyzed by using the deferred option theory of real option,and the financial risk of large-scale project investment induced by internal uncertainty is analyzed by using the growth option theory of real option.At the same time,considering the financial risk of large-scale project investment caused by the external financing constraints caused by the imperfect financing environment caused by information asymmetry in the case of imperfect capital market,the financial risk of large-scale project investment induced by internal financing caused by the increase of financing cost.On the basis of theory,this paper puts forward the research hypothesis,which identifies the financial risk inducing factors in large-scale project investment in a hierarchical and targeted way,which lays a reliable theoretical foundation for follow-up research.Thirdly,in the research method,the hierarchical holographic model is used to organically link the external,internal uncertainty and external and internal financing constraints with different levels of host country,industry and enterprise.multi-dimensional and dynamic research corridor large-scale project investment financial risk inducing factors.The conclusions of this paper have the following policy implications for reducing the financial risk of large-scale project investment in the corridor,strengthening the protection of the interests of large-scale project investment enterprises in the corridor,and improving the financial risk prevention of large-scale project investment enterprises in the corridor: first,the government and relevant departments should strengthen communication and cooperation with Pakistan to create a stable external environment for project investment for large-scale project investment enterprises in the corridor.Second,China’s financial institutions and social private capital should increase financing support to corridor large-scale project investment enterprises on the basis of legal compliance,broaden financing channels and improve the financing environment.At the same time,it is necessary to effectively mobilize the financial resources for the investment of large-scale projects in the corridor,give full play to the role of RMB in the investment of large-scale projects in the corridor,and reduce the cost of financing;third,large-scale project investment enterprises in the corridor should maintain sustained and stable production by means of diversification,enhancing information transparency,flexible use of financial derivatives,and promoting the decentralization of production and distribution.At the same time,corridor large-scale project investment enterprises should speed up the training of talent team construction,strengthen their own audit,and further disperse and reduce the financial risk of corridor large-scale project investment. |
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