| In 2012,China’s GDP growth rate fell below 8% for the first time,and the domestic economy began to shift to the medium high-speed growth stage.At the beginning of December 2014,the Central Economic Work Conference clearly identified the nine major trends of the "new normal of economic development" and proposed "to recognize the new normal,adapt to the new normal,and lead the new normal”.And this is the economic development trend of China in the current and future period.Under the new normal background,economic development faces many challenges,the pressure of population aging is increasing,the securities market system is not perfect,and consumer demand is weak.In the housing market,housing prices have grown rapidly,and structural supply and demand conflicts have intensified,increasing the difficulty of macroeconomic regulation and control.In academic study,research on housing issues has emerged in large numbers.There are many literatures on macro housing prices.Based on high-quality micro-survey data,the literature on the impact of housing variables on family economic and financial decision-making is not enough.In view of this,this paper uses the data of China Household Finance Survey from 2013 to 2017 to study the impact of housing appreciation on China’s household economic and financial decision-making and its mechanism.In the research content,this paper analyzes from the following four aspects.First,we sort out the development history of the housing market and build a housing appreciation index at the household level.Since the reform and opening up,China’s housing market reform has experienced several stages in the exploration of housing system reform,the initial formation of housing marketization,the comprehensive promotion of housing marketization,and the deepening reform of the housing system.The housing market has grown from scratch.The overall housing market prices in China have shown a continuous growth trend,especially in the first-tier and new first-tier cities.There are obvious differences between China’s housing market and that in developed countries,mainly reflected in the exploration of the housing taxation system in China.Based on the micro-data from the China Household Finance Survey,this section builds a micro-observation that measures the development of the housing market,a housing appreciation index,and measures the effect of household wealth changes brought about by the housing market from the household level.Descriptive statistics show that Chinese urban households enjoy huge housing appreciation gains.From 2013 to 2017,the average annual housing appreciation value is about 75,000 yuan,the median value is almost 24,000 yuan.The large gap between the mean and median indicates that the housing appreciation gains enjoyed by different households vary widely.Second,we study the relationship between housing appreciation and household general consumption expenditure.Under the new economic normal,the contribution rate of China’s household consumption to economic growth has generally increased,but the household consumption rate has declined.How to promote consumption and expand domestic demand is an important issue in transforming China’s economic growth mode and achieving sustainable development.Studying the relationship between housing gains and consumption has important practical and theoretical significance.This section mainly studies the impact of housing appreciation on total household consumption expenditure and consumption structure.Firstly,the multivariate linear regression model was used to empirically analyze the impact of housing appreciation on total household consumption,major consumption categories and food expenditure ratio,and estimated the strength of housing appreciation for consumption variables.Secondly,the long-term and short-term effects of housing appreciation on household consumption were tested.Then,from different dimensions,the heterogeneity of housing consumption affecting household consumption is analyzed.Finally,the possible channels of housing appreciation affecting household consumption are discussed and the main conclusions are tested for robustness.The empirical research results show that the appreciation of housing has a significant role in promoting household consumption,and it has a greater impact on the income elasticity of communication,education,entertainment and durable goods.More direct evidence suggests that housing appreciation can significantly reduce the proportion of household food expenditures to total consumption,indicating that housing appreciation will increase household consumption and improve household consumption patterns.But this does not mean that the continued appreciation of housing is beneficial to macroeconomic growth.The short-term appreciation of the housing market triggered by the housing market bubble,due to unsustainable,once burst,will likely dampen consumer enthusiasm and expand the negative effects of housing price volatility.Further,the study found that the impact of housing appreciation on household consumption is different in the long and short term,and the long-term housing appreciation has a greater impact on household consumption.In terms of household debt status,the impact of housing appreciation on some consumption variables is stronger in households without housing loans(borrowing).The quantile estimates show that the impact of housing appreciation on household consumption on each consumption quantile is not much different,but only has a significant impact on the lowest and highest-consumption households.After many tests,it was found that the appreciation of housing mainly affects household consumption through income effects and insurance substitution effects.A number of methods have been used to test the relationship between housing appreciation and consumption,especially the fixed-effects model based on panel data and first-order differential estimates.Both show that the main conclusions of housing appreciation affecting household consumption levels and consumption structure are robust.Third,study the relationship between housing appreciation and retirement(leisure consumption).In recent years,the labor participation rate of Chinese residents has continued to decline.With the aging of the population,China’s social pension system is facing huge expenditure pressures.Retirement is a direct expression of leisure spending and can be seen as a special kind of goods.The impact of housing appreciation on individual retirement decisions may be related to the impact of housing appreciation on general consumer goods,and at the same time there are specialities.In this context,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the relationship between housing appreciation and individual retirement decisions.This chapter first examines the impact of housing appreciation on whether an individual retire,the time of work of an unretired individual,and whether or not to delay retirement.Secondly,it analyzes the gender,as well as liability differences affecting retirement.Then,this chapter explores the mechanism of housing appreciation affecting individual retirement.Finally,the main conclusions of this paper are tested for robustness.The results of this chapter show that housing appreciation will significantly increase the likelihood of individual retirement,reduce the labor time of unretired individuals and reduce the possibility of elder individuals delaying retirement.This conclusion is established in the basic Probit model and the Probit model using instrumental variables.There is no significant gender difference in the impact of housing appreciation on individual retirement decision.The heterogeneity of liabilities affecting retirement decisionmaking is more obvious.The appreciation of housing has a significant impact on the retirement behavior of individuals without housing loans(borrowings),and has no significant effect on those who have not yet paid off their housing liabilities.The mechanism of the housing appreciation affecting the individual’s retirement is,that it enhances the possibility of individual retirement by promoting the support of the individual to provide care for their grand-children.Housing appreciation also increases the likelihood of individual retirement by satisfying the individual’s motivation to provide financial support to their children.Robust estimation based on instrumental variable method,as well as fixed-effect model and first-order differential estimation based on panel data both show that the impact of housing appreciation on individual retirement decision-making is significant.Fourth,study the impact of housing appreciation on household risk asset investment behavior.At present,Chinese residents’ participation level of risk market is generally low,and the securities market is still in the stage of deepening and perfecting.At the macroeconomic level,the “squatting” phenomenon in the housing market and the securities market has occurred from time to time.From the perspective of household,this chapter has important theoretical and practical significance to explore the impact of housing appreciation on family risk asset investment behavior.This chapter first empirically analyzes the impact of housing appreciation on household risk market participation and the proportion of risk assets.Secondly,it analyzes the heterogeneity impact of housing appreciation on venture capital investment.Then it discusses the channels of housing appreciation affecting risky asset investment,and finally tests the main conclusions’ robustness.The results of the study show that housing appreciation has a significant positive impact on allocation and proportion of household risk assets.The impact of housing appreciation on venture capital investment is heterogeneous.In the household age group,the appreciation of housing has a greater impact on the elderly group over 50 years old.In terms of the education level,housing appreciation has greater impact on those whose diplomacy is lower than college.In terms of family background risk,housing appreciation has reduced impact on families with background risks.In terms of impact mechanism,housing appreciation mainly promotes family participation in risk market by increasing investment risk preference and enhancing investment demand.By using different key explanatory and dependent variable definitions,and further qualifying samples,it is confirmed that the impact of housing appreciation on household risk asset investment is robust.The contribution of this paper is mainly reflected in three aspects: research perspective,empirical analysis structure and data source.Seen from research perspective,this paper expands the study of housing issues.More literature has discussed the impact of housing prices on general household consumption,while the impact of housing factors on risk asset allocation is still insufficient.There are few relevant studies in Chinese literature.There is a lack of discussion about the relationship between housing variables and household retirement decision-making(leisure consumption).This paper studies the impact of housing appreciation on China’s household economic and financial decision-making from three aspects: general consumption decision-making,retirement decision-making(leisure consumption)and risk-asset investment.Based on the empirical research structure,the rich information covered by household data,we conducted a multi-perspective empirical analysis of housing variables and household economic and financial decisions.This paper not only analyzes the impact of housing appreciation on consumption levels,retirement,and participation in risk markets,but also explores the impact of that on consumption structure,labor intensity of unretired groups,and proportion of risk asset allocation.Thus,the research provides a wealth of empirical evidence of the relationship between housing appreciation and household financial decisions.Based on detailed household information,this paper focuses on multifaceted comparative research on the impact of housing appreciation,and discusses the impact mechanism.The detailed and in-depth micro evidence provided in this paper is conducive to enhancing the understanding of the impact of changes in the macro housing market.The data used in this paper is China Household Finance Survey data,2013 to 2017.CHFS,conducted by Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,has selected samples covering a wide range of towns and rural areas across China.The survey data has especially good representation and high quality.Research based on this data is increasingly published in top journals at home and abroad.This data includes detailed information on housing,consumption,labor supply,and financial asset allocation,which provides a good foundation for this study. |
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