| For social,people are the foundation and the fundamental driving force of development.With the transition of the population,the academic community has paid attention to the problem of population aging,and reached a consensus that economic growth will be affected by population aging.In addition to the direct impact of population aging,economic growth will also be indirectly affected by population aging through three major sources,such as labor input,capital and technological progress.Due to different research perspectives and selected variables,it is still controversial whether the effect of population aging on economic growth is positive or negative in practice.Based on this,this paper takes labor input as a starting point,and analyzes the impact of population aging on labor supply and economic growth from the two aspects of labor quantity and labor quality.The specific content of this paper is as follows: First,analyze the mechanism by which population aging affecting labor supply and economic growth from the perspective of labor quantity(labor age structure,labor age population and labor participation rate)and labor quality(human capital and productivity).The factors of population aging and human capital are introduced into the Solow model at the same time,and the extended Solow model is mathematically derived to provide a theoretical basis;secondly,from the two aspects of labor force quantity and labor force quality,it analyzes and empirically examines the effect of population aging on labor supply.Finally,from the overall and intermediary levels,we empirically test whether there is a mechanism by which population aging affects economic growth through the intermediary path of labor supply represented by labor quantity and labor quality.and give corresponding policy recommendations.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)Analyzing the impact of population aging on labor supply from the perspective of labor force,the number of the working-age population has begun to show a downward trend in recent years,the proportion of the working-age population has also shown a downward trend,and the labor-age population structure has continued to age.And there are differences in labor force participation rates among different age groups.Judging from the empirical results that population aging affects the labor force participation rate,population aging does not lead to a significant downward trend in the labor force participation rate,but is beneficial to the increase of the labor force participation rate.People will actively participate in labor to increase income or reduce the burden of support,which increases the labor participation rate,which also explains the reason why China’s labor participation rate has been on the rise in recent years.In addition,the impact of population aging on the labor force participation rate has regional,staged,and urban-rural characteristics.(2)Analyze the impact of population aging on labor supply from the perspective of labor quality(ie,human capital).The results show that population aging has a significant promoting effect on human capital investment,and the promoting effect is mainly reflected in education and healthy manpower.Increase in capital investment.The impact of population aging on human capital has obvious differences between regions.For example,human capital in the eastern and western regions is significantly positively affected by population aging,while the impact is not significant in the central and northeastern regions.(3)Analyze the impact of population aging on labor productivity from the perspective of the service industry.The results show that there are differences in the impact of population aging on labor productivity across industries.In the intellectual service industry,the accumulation of experience and knowledge is highly demanding,and the accumulation of knowledge and experience throughout the entire career,reaching a maximum in old age,although physical endurance,physical fitness and learning ability are not as good as youth the labor productivity of the older labor force does not decrease with the increase of age,on the contrary,it may increase,increasing the intellectual The proportion of middle-aged and elderly labor in the service industry is beneficial to increase labor productivity.In the physical service industry,the physical endurance,physical fitness and learning ability of the labor force are in a continuous decline process from youth to middle age and then to old age.Therefore,with the intensification of population aging,the productivity of the elderly labor force will increase with age.The increase in the proportion of the elderly labor force has a negative impact on the productivity of the physical service industry.(4)Based on the overall level,the results show that the impact of population aging on economic growth through labor supply is time-varying,and the elasticity of labor input and output is not static.Based on the mediation level,the results show that population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth,and there is a mechanism whereby population aging affects economic growth through labor force quantity and labor quality.Specifically,population aging will inhibit economic growth by reducing the number of labor force and labor productivity(labor quality),but at the same time,it will also promote economic growth by improving human capital(labor quality).The mediating effect mainly reflects the improvement of healthy human capital to alleviate the negative impact of population aging on economic growth. |
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