Research On The Influence Of Population Age Structure On Urban–rural Household Income Inequality In China

Since the third national census in 1982,the age structure of China’s population has undergone rapid changes.China entered an aging society around 2000,and with a high proportion of people aged 65 and above at 13.5% by 2020,China is already at the threshold of a deeply aging society.The rapid increase in the proportion of aging population is matched by a sharp decline in the proportion of children and a rapid increase in the median age of the population.In 2020,only 17.9% of the population in China was 14 years old and below,and the median age of the population was 38.8 years old.The proportion of children was far lower than the world average and even lower than many developed countries,while the median age of the population has already surpassed that of the United States(the median age in the United States is 38.3).The rapid pace of population age structure change,the coexistence of aging and childlessness are important features of China’s population age structure change.The aging of China’s population and the sub-replacement fertility are prominent,and the income gap between China’s urban and rural areas remains high for a long time,which increasingly attracts people’s attention.The phenomenon of aging and fewer children has brought serious challenges to China’s economic and social development,while the excessive income gap between urban and rural areas has seriously hindered the realization of the goal of common prosperity.The change of population age structure and the evolution of the income gap between urban and rural residents has been a hot issue for a long time.It is also a universal problem in the world.Therefore,the research literature on the change of population age structure and the income gap between urban and rural residents is not only numerous but also spans a long time.In terms of the research scope of the existing literature,the research on the income gap between urban and rural residents almost covers all aspects of the income gap between urban and rural residents.In particular,the research on the causes of the income gap between urban and rural residents is extremely rich,involving almost every Angle we can take into account.These studies help us comprehensively understand and grasp the cause and evolution trend of the income gap of urban and rural residents,and offer reference and enlightenment for us to analyze the income gap of urban and rural residents from the Angle of population age structure changes.In the study of population age structure change,domestic and foreign research focus mainly on the causes and consequences of population aging and how to deal with the challenges of aging,but the population age structure change brought about another problem--children reduction,which may be because the phenomenon of children reduction is not prominent in other countries.And the negative impact of China’s child shortage has not been seriously concerned.On the one hand,the existing achievements in this field provide a reference for us to study the changes of the age structure of Chinese population,on the other hand,it also leaves a large space for our research.In terms of the relationship between the change of the population age structure and the change of the income gap between urban and rural residents,most of the existing literature studies the income distribution effect of the change of the population age structure from the perspective of income inequality,and the research focuses on the influence of aging on income inequality,less considering the influence of fewer children on income inequality.There are few literatures that clearly study the influence of the change of population age structure on the income gap between urban and rural residents.The existing research on aging and income inequality,on the one hand,provides us with ideas to study the relationship between the change of population age structure and the income gap between urban and rural residents,on the other hand,it also makes our theoretical research face major challenges.Based on existing studies,this paper systematically examines the history of population age structure and urban-rural income gap changes in China and finds that there is a spatial and temporal consistency between population age structure changes and the widening of the absolute income gap between urban and rural income in China.Since there are few theoretical studies on the relationship between population age structure change and urban-rural income gap in the academic community,this paper focuses on theoretically analyzing the intrinsic link between population age structure change and urban-rural income gap.The research in this paper finds that population age structure changes widen the urban-rural income gap,and the effect of population age structure changes on the widening of the urban-rural income gap is achieved through the following four paths.First,the increase in the average age of workers will widen the wage income gap between urban and rural workers under the influence of the heterogeneity of urban and rural human capital accumulation and the difference in the employment industry structure of urban and rural workers Second,the increase in the proportion of the aging population has widened the gap between property income and pension income of the aging population in urban and rural areas through the dual economic system.Third,the reduction of the proportion of the labor force population widens the income gap between urban and rural areas by changing the supply and demand relationship between the urban and rural labor markets through capital-biased technologies.Fourth,the difference between urban and rural populations with fewer children has an impact on the long-term changes in the urban and rural income gap by expanding the investment in human capital of urban and rural households.To verify the above findings,this paper constructs a national panel regression model using historical statistics,systematic GMM estimation method and threshold regression method,and the results of the empirical study show that the child support ratio has a significant negative effect on the urban-rural income gap;when the social security expenditure level reaches the threshold,the old-age dependency ratio has a significant positive effect on the urban-rural income gap.That is,an increase in the child dependency ratio helps to narrow the income gap between urban and rural residents,while an increase in the old-age dependency ratio widens the income gap between urban and rural residents.In order to further understand the characteristics of China’s changing population age structure and the negative impact of the urban-rural income gap on healthy economic and social development,this paper selects Japan and other BRICS countries for a comparative study,summarizes Japan’s experience in coping with aging and narrowing the urban-rural income gap,and identifies the hazards of excessive income disparity on the socio-economic development of BRICS countries.According to the findings of theoretical analysis and empirical research,combined with the lessons learned from other countries,this paper proposes the following recommendations: adopt a more active policy to encourage childbirth,curb the infantilization and delay the aging;increase investment in rural education to narrow the urban-rural income gap brought by urban-rural education inequality;accelerate the process of citizenship of migrant workers to change the inversion of urban-rural aging;actively promote the reform of pension system to narrow the pension income gap between urban and rural aging population;implement the active aging strategy to increase the labor participation rate of the elderly.