| As China enters an era of negative growth in both total population and workingage population,the deepening degree of low fertility and aging is exerting increasing pressure on labor supply and social security fund payments,prompting the government to consider gradually implementing a delayed retirement policy.However,the target audience of this policy,individuals born in the 1960 s and 1970 s who are eligible for retirement,generally have low enthusiasm for the delayed retirement policy.The existing research from a macro social welfare perspective has difficulties effectively explaining the low enthusiasm of these groups towards delayed retirement policy.This dissertation argues that,under the gradually stabilizing institutional and socio-economic factors that affect retirement decisions,the influence of children on individual retirement decisions is increasing.Given the changes in intergenerational support in Chinese families,the number of children primarily affects individual retirement decisions through intergenerational support in marriage and career establishment,as well as children educational achievements.Generally speaking,the intergenerational support in Chinese families can be divided into two directions: parents to children and children to parents.Parents’ intergenerational support for children can be categorized into three aspects: childrearing,education,and supporting them to start a family and career.Children’s intergenerational support for parents can be divided into three aspects: financial support,caregiving,and emotional support.The family intergenerational support has also undergone changes during the process of family transformation.The following changes have occurred in children’s intergenerational support: financial support has been replaced by the social pension security system,while caregiving and emotional support have shifted from being provided internally within the extended family to being provided externally between small families,resulting in a decline in their status.In contrast,parents’ intergenerational support has undergone the following changes:child-rearing,education,and supporting them to start a family and career have remained within the family and have been strengthened due to the decrease in the number of children.The double effects of traditional family intergenerational support on individuals’ retirement decisions,namely the expenditure effect and the expected income effect,have shifted to be dominated by the expenditure effect.This dissertation examines,through theoretical derivation and empirical testing,how the number of children affects retirement decisions through intergenerational support for starting a family and career and children’s educational achievements after the transformation of family intergenerational support.In the theoretical analysis section,this dissertation draws on the labor-leisure model and establishes a labor-retirement model that internalizes retirement decisions.By fully considering factors such as individual life expectancy,wealth accumulation,labor income,pension security,and health status,the equilibrium results of the laborretirement model show that the number of children primarily affects individuals’ retirement decisions through intergenerational support for starting a family and career and children’s educational achievements.An increase in the number of children raises the level of expenditure for providing intergenerational support for starting a family and career to children,leading to an increase in the marginal utility of labor supply and a decrease in the marginal utility of retirement,thus reducing the individual’s equilibrium retirement.And an increase in the number of children reduces children’s educational achievements,further increasing the pressure on individuals to provide intergenerational support for starting a family and career,also resulting in a reduction in the individual’s equilibrium retirement.Based on the above conclusions,this dissertation constructs an empirical framework with three parts: the direct impact of the number of children on retirement decisions,the impact of the number of children on retirement decisions through intergenerational support for starting a family and career,and the impact of the number of children on retirement decisions through children’s educational achievements.In the empirical test section,this dissertation first utilizes data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study 2011-2018(CHARLS 2011-2018)to empirically examine the direct effect of the number of children on individual retirement decisions.The results,using the expected retirement age as a proxy variable for retirement decisions,show that for every additional child,the expected retirement age significantly delays by 0.512-0.614 years,indicating a significant effect of an increased number of children on delaying the expected retirement age.The estimation results using the average number of children per city,the multi-child fertility rate,and the total fertility rate in 2005 as instrumental variables suggest that the effect of an increased number of children on delaying the expected retirement age remains significant.The robustness test results,including restricting the sample to urban hukou,dividing the survey years,and adding work-related and spouse-related control variables,are consistent with the baseline estimation results.The heterogeneity test results based on children’s gender reveal that the effect of an increase in the number of sons on delaying the expected retirement age is greater than that of daughters.This finding aligns with the reality that individuals tend to face greater pressure in providing intergenerational support for sons to start a family and career than for daughters.The heterogeneity test results concerning individuals’ wealth and income levels indicate that the effect of an increase in the number of children on delaying the expected retirement age is significant in the bottom 75% of the samples with higher household wealth and income levels,but not significant in the top 25%.This is because individuals with higher household wealth and income levels face less pressure in providing intergenerational support for children to start a family and career,and thus the number of children has a less significant impact on their retirement decisions.Utilizing a fuzzy cohort double-difference model to examine the impact of the one-child policy on individuals’ expected retirement age,it is found that those born in the 1960 s and 1970 s who were affected by the policy have a significantly earlier expected retirement age compared to those who were not.The one-child policy has led to an exogenous decrease in the number of children and a decrease in intergenerational support for children,which result in an earlier expected retirement age.The dissertation then examines the relationship between the number of children,intergenerational support for marriage and career establishment,and individual retirement decisions.Using data from CHARLS 2013-2018 on children’s house purchase,and betrothal gifts/dowry as proxy variables for intergenerational support for marriage and career establishment,the results show that an increase in the number of children significantly reduces the proportion of children purchasing houses,as well as the per capita value of betrothal gifts/dowry.The estimation results using the average number of children per city,the multi-child fertility rate,and the total fertility rate in 2005 as instrumental variables also indicate that an increase in the number of children significantly reduces the per capita intergenerational support received by children in terms of the proportion of children purchasing houses and the per capita value of betrothal gifts/dowry.The robustness test results,including restricting the sample to urban hukou,dividing the survey years,replacing the explained variables,and controlling for community fixed effects,are consistent with the baseline estimation results.Further tests using whether a family has children in school as a proxy for intergenerational support for marriage and career establishment reveal that having children in school significantly delays an individual’s expected retirement age.Additionally,having children marry within a year significantly advances the expected retirement age of fathers with multiple children.In families with multiple children,fathers tend to assume more economic responsibilities,and their willingness to retire increases after fulfilling the intergenerational support for marriage and career establishment.The estimation results of the moderating effect of intergenerational support for marriage and career establishment show that families with more children have a higher probability of having children in school,and an increase in the number of children leads to a greater delay in the expected retirement age.An increase in the number of children also increases the probability of having children in school after an individual turns 60.Tests on grandparental support reveal that for families with only one child,the focus of grandparental support is on caregiving,while for families with multiple children,the focus is on financial support.Lastly,this dissertation empirically examines the relationship between the number of children,their educational achievements,and individuals’ retirement decisions.Using the CHARLS 2013-2018 data,the paper tests the average years of education and the average education level of children as proxy variables for children’s educational achievements.It finds that as the number of children increases,the average years of education and the average education level of children significantly decrease.The estimation results using the average number of children per city,the multi-child fertility rate,and the total fertility rate in 2005 as instrumental variables are consistent with the baseline estimation results.The robustness test results,including restricting the sample to urban hukou,dividing the survey years,replacing the explained variables,and controlling for community fixed effects,are also in line with the baseline estimation results.Tests using the average education level of children as a proxy variable for their educational achievements show that an increase in the educational level of children significantly decreases an individual’s expected retirement age.The estimation results of the moderating effect of the average education level of children indicate that the number of children affects an individual’s expected retirement age through the education level of their children.Specifically,a higher number of children leads to a lower average education level of children,which in turn delays an individual’s expected retirement age.Conversely,a lower number of children results in a higher average education level of children,which in turn takes forward an individual’s expected retirement age.The results of the heterogeneity test based on the gender of children show that the impact of an increase in the average education level of daughters on an individual’s expected retirement age is greater than that of sons.When providing intergenerational support for marriage and career establishment,individuals tend to make more rigid and less flexible expenditures for sons,while for daughters,the expenditures are more elastic and flexible.In the conclusion section,this dissertation discusses on three aspects based on the theoretical analysis and empirical test results: the external validity of the impact of the number of children on individual retirement decisions,the direction of intergenerational economic support in families,and whether intergenerational support in families continues to change.The policy suggestions proposed in this paper mainly focus on three areas: refining the delayed retirement policy,improving policies to actively respond to aging,and optimizing policies to support fertility. |
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