| After the liberation of Hainan Island,Kuomintang Authorities in Taiwan were unable to support the defense of the Xisha and Nansha Islands.They withdrew from the Xisha and Nansha Islands when withdrew from Hainan Island.After the withdrawal of Taiwan Authorities from the Xisha and Nansha Islands,there was a power vacuum in the South China Sea region,what’ s more,Vietnam and Philippines took the opportunity to invade the South China Sea.In 1956,Taiwan Authorities sent the "Liwei Fleet" to inspect the Nansha Islands and re-arranged to Taiping Island.Since then,Taiwan Authorities have maintained presence in the Nansha Islands for more than sixty years.Since the 1950s,the time limit of the South China Sea policy of Taiwan Authorities has lasted for nearly seventy years.During the period,Taiwan Authorities experienced six leaders including Chiang Kai-shek,Chiang Ching-kuo,Lee Teng-hui,Chen Shui-bian,Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen.The situation in the South China Sea has also changed dramatically.The neighboring countries invaded the islands and reefs of the South China Sea,they also caused disputes over the demarcation of sea areas and the exploitation of resources.As the countries outside the region deepen their involvement in the South China Sea,the situation of the South China Sea was even more complicated.Taiwan Authorities’South China Sea policy has also undergone tremendous changes in the past seventy years.According to Taiwan Authorities’attitude towards“historic waters”,the frequency and magnitude of changes in the South China Sea policy.The historical evolution of Taiwan Authorities’ South China Sea policy could be divided into three periods." two Chiang dynasty”was summarized as the formation period(1949——1956)and development period(1956——1988)of Taiwan Authorities’ South China Sea policy.During the period of Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian,it was summarized as the metamorphosis period(1988——2008).Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen were the turbulent periods(2008——2018).The evolutionary historyhistory of Taiwan Authorities’ South China Sea policy and the causal mechanism of Taiwan authorities’ South China Sea policy are the key issues to be resolved in this paper.This paper refers to the logic of neoclassical realism,taking the South China Sea situation as an independent variable,and Taiwan authorities’South China Sea policy as a dependent variable,introducing leader image,strategic culture,government-society relationship and political system as intervention variables,constructing an analytical framework,and applying In-depth analysis by materialist dialectics,document analysis,process tracking,and case analysis.From the regional situation to the final policy through the decision-making process,the decision-making process can be further divided into three steps:cognition,decision-making,and execution.That is,the leader recognizes and judges the system stimulus,and selects the appropriate policy from the alternative policies.Intervention variables influence the final policy by influencing the three steps that act on the decision-making process.As the core of the decision-making system,leaders have strong subjective initiative.Strategic culture can be artificially shaped,and government-society relationships can be manipulated.As the same with the political system,the system is fixed,but the people who act within the system are subjective.In addition to Taiwan’s political system,there are numerous informal systems such as rules and practices,which provide space for the parties to conduct"black-box operations." Therefore,the existence of intervention variables as conceptual variables leads to a causal mechanism from independent variables to dependent variables that is not completely objective and rational,but rather biased.From a longer time perspective,Taiwan authorities have major and secondary contradictions in the South China Sea policy.Contradictions have promoted the development Taiwan authorities’ South China Sea policy,and the evolution of policies has historical inevitability. |
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