| Mining townships are a particular type of territory.The loss and relocation of land caused by coal mining subsidence in diving areas will affect the logical decisionmaking of individual marriage,childbirth,and mobility,leading to the spatial deconstruction and reconstruction of the population.There have been many valuable explorations on the population evolution of resource-based cities.However,the limitations become more and more prominent when the scale,content,and methods of population space in coal mining subsidence areas are further focused.The development process and pattern of village and town population systems under the special thrust of coal mining subsidence are still unclear.Therefore,based on the response feedback of individuals to coal mining subsidence stress,exploring the development trend and mechanism of the population system in mining townships is helpful to deeply understand the development mechanism of the population system in the context of coal mining subsidence and has important theoretical and practical significance for improving the sustainable development of population system in mining townships areas.This paper takes 21 administrative villages in Wugou Town,Huaibei Mining area as the research area and uses the survey and interview data of 152 families and 19 institutions.Based on population development’s complexity,comprehensiveness,and interactivity,the paper constructs the conceptual analysis framework of population system development in mining townships from the bottom up: "structural changeresponse feedback-decision logic," multi-scale modeling framework and simulation implementation framework,and the response feedback empirical research on land use transformation and relocation policy design,based on which the logical decision of marriage,fertility,and mobility of the population in mining townships is formed,and the development response characteristics and development trend of the population system are obtained,and the development mechanism of the population system under the stress of coal mining subsidence is revealed.The results are as follows:(1)Land use transition disrupts traditional livelihood models.Over the past 15 years,the spatial correlation degree of land use in Wugou Town has continuously decreased,and the global correlation measure is 0.6.The land use change in mining areas is the main reason for the increase or decrease of local spatial correlation degree.Regarding dominant morphology,the indirect footprint of coal mining is the leading cause of landform change.Coal mining subsidence land increased the most(557.94hm~2),and the unidirectional conversion of cultivated land to coal mining subsidence land was the primary mode of this change,accounting for 87.4% of the coal mining subsidence land.Regarding terms of recessive morphology,the land use functions of coal mining subsidence are mainly economic,photovoltaic,and idle waters.Land ownership is constantly changing among farmers,coal miners,governments,rural collectives,and contractors.The increased capitalization of land has led to the exclusion of new operators in production,marketing,management,and identity,further separating the natural link between farmers and the land.(2)Relocation and resettlement of coal-sinking land has accelerated the transformation of livelihood patterns.Macro policy: Relevant laws and regulations do not levy indirect land use,such as coal mining subsidence land.The relocation process has been continuously improved,but problems still exist.Compensation standards for relocation and resettlement are higher than those in Anhui Province,with housing compensation increasing by more than 7 times,multi-story compensation increasing by more than 2 times from nothing,and compensation for public buildings in new villages increasing by 10%.In the past 15 years,Wugou Township half of the compensation for seedlings and ground attachments is lower than the minimum standard of Anhui Province in the same period.The well-being of people’s livelihood after relocation and resettlement of coal mining subsidence has not been emphasized.Micro feedback: Coal mining subsidence is the main reason for relocation and resettlement rather than land acquisition.The inadequacy of the relocation and resettlement process in terms of science,fairness,timeliness,flexibility,and continuity has led to an increase in the economic pressure on farmers after relocation and the realization of responsive feedback through lowering the standard of living,raising sources of income,transferring the original land,borrowing money,grabbing unauthorized building,building new rented houses,and petitioning and litigating.(3)Structural response feedbacks to coal mining subsidence coercion in township demographic systems.As for the natural structure,before relocation and resettlement,the number of population households increased rapidly,and the sex ratio of births decreased rapidly.During the period of relocation and resettlement,the birth rate rapidly increased from 10.65‰ to 36.54‰,and the natural growth rate fluctuated and increased accordingly.After relocation and resettlement,the birth rate declined rapidly,the sex ratio at birth rebounded rapidly,and the natural growth rate was at its lowest level in history.Population movement is dominated by the inflow of males from within the province and outside the city.Population relocation is dominated by outward migration from outside the province and inward migration within the province.When the relocation procedure is not perfect,population movement is synchronized with relocation and resettlement,and after the relocation procedure is perfect,population movement is advanced.The fluctuation and change of inward migration is greater than that of outward migration,and the fluctuation and change of outward migration is greater than that of inward migration.Spatial structure: The average center of the residential base in Wugou Town in the past 16 years is distributed in the junction zone of Wugou Village and Guozheng Village,and the new and old market towns are north.The average center of sunken water surface changes more drastically,successively migrating from the northeast to the middle,and the migration distance reaches2619.67 m,much higher than the 122.42 m of the residence base.Sunken water surface successively presents the process of agglomeration-discrete-agglomeration in space,and finally agglomerates in the north-south direction.In contrast,the residence base discrete tendency is slightly strengthened in space and shows a northeast-southwest direction overall.The overall distribution was northeast-southwest,and the accumulation was more evident in this direction.(4)The sustainable development of the population system in mining township is facing a profound transformation.The trend of population downsizing and outflow is inevitable,women’s social responsibility has increased,and there is pronounced heterogeneity in the population development of different villages.Focusing on the employment and relocation compensation standards,which are of most concern to farmers,the simulation of population development by setting two scenarios of increasing employment supply and increasing relocation compensation standards shows that the household population will peak in 2039,and the employment scenario and the relocation scenario will delay the population peak;the number of resident population continues to decline under multiple scenarios.The sex ratio decreases from82.89 to 67.82,the total dependency ratio increases from 66.1% to 89.87%,the relocation and employment scenarios are even lower,and the social dependency pressure continues to increase in the future.Coal mining subsidence relocation and resettlement is the main reason for the spatial pattern of population in Wugou Township,and the multiple scenarios did not change the spatial distribution characteristics of the population.The proportion of the mobile population increases from 29.86% to 55.46%,and the relocation scenario and employment scenario are lower than the original scenario by 10.47% and 19.35%,respectively;the sex ratio of the mobile population increases by 19.63% and the female population pays more attention to local employment,and the male population is more sensitive to economic income.Multiscale population development simulation shows that the relocation time and the degree of land transfer are inversely proportional to the time of the peak of the village household population,and the change of the household population in the early relocated villages gradually converges to the traditional villages that have not been relocated and have less land transfer;the earlier the time of relocation and resettlement of the coal mining subsidence,the smaller the mobile population in the future;the lower the degree of land transfer,the faster the growth rate of the mobile population proportion;the coefficient of the elderly is inversely proportional to the time of relocation,and positively proportional to the degree of land transfer.The elderly coefficient is inversely proportional to the relocation time and positively proportional to the degree of land transfer.The urbanization rate continues to rise from 28.71% to 51.48% in the original scenario,and the urbanization rate increases in the relocation and employment scenarios.(5)The sustainable development of population systems in mining townships requires systematic solutions.This paper tries to put forward a cross-scale "peer-to-peer urbanization" strategy,which focuses on the elements of sustainable development of the population system,such as land,household registration,industry,and government governance and puts forward linkage and optimization strategies on the scales of outflow places and inflow places.Specific measures include refining land transfer to revitalize population development assets,improving relocation policies to break the barriers to population mobility,clarifying industrial potentials to give full play to the advantages of population transformation,and innovating management modes to enhance the capacity of population governance. |
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