| ObjectiveThis research paper is based on the theory of Five-Movements&Six-Climates,also known as WuYunLiuQi theory of Chinese Traidtional Medicine,It is to analyse the epidemiological characteristics of Other Infectious Diarrhea Diseases(OIDDs)reported in Guangzhou in the past 15 years and the meteorological data of the city in the same period of 18 years,to explore the correlation between meteorological factors and the incidence.Based on recent infectious disease prevention studies and latest analysis methods,utilize traditional Chinese medicine Five-movements&Six-climates of theory.This study will explore the possibility of merging the etiology of Chinese and Western medicine at a theoretical level,using national database to analyze,in meanwhile,testing the "three-year into an epidemic","counting to predict Disease”theories for demonstration and real application.Methods1.Establish the meteorological database from the year of Guiwei(2003)to Gengzi(2020)of Guangzhou City,including:Maximum Wind Speed,2-Minute Average Wind Speed,Dew Point temperature,Temperature/Air Temperature,Maximum temperature,Minimum Temperature,Relative Humidity,precipitation-From 20:00 of the previous day to 19:59 of the current day,Water Vapor Pressure and Daily Average Air Pressure,a total of 10 meteorological factors,carry out descriptive analysis of the classification statistics.2.Screen out data that does not meet the study critieria,establish OIDDs patient and disease database from the year of Bingxu(2006)to Gengzi(2020),including date of birth,age,gender,date of onset,time of diagnosis,etc.(Taking the Great Cold Day as the starting date of each year,and the beginning of Five-movments or the beginning of Six-Climates).Then classify the original characteristics.3.Check the perpetual calendar,and according to the actual solar terms,take the Great Cold Day as the starting date of each year,each first solar terms,and each first qi,and the start and end dates of each solar term period are determined according to the perpetual calendar.4.Convert the date of birth,and onset of the disease into the calendar based on the Five-Movements&Six-Climates Theory,According to the Five-movents,it is divided into 10 attributes of yearly main movement:too-much Wood,too-little Wood,too-much Fire,too-little Fire,too-much Earth,too-little Earth,too-much Metal,too-little Metal,too-much Water,and too-little Water.According to the six-climates,it is divided into 6 attributes of yearly dominant climates:Jueyin WindWood,Shaoyin Monarch Fire,Taiyin WetEarth,Shaoyang PhaseFire,Yangming DryMetal,Taiyang ColdWater.Then descriptive analysis was carried out on epidemiological characteristics,hysteresis and distribution rules of various types of morbidity.5.The meteorological data of 3 years before the onset+the year of onset(4 years in total)were used to compare with the total cases(195308 cases)and cases caused by four different pathogens(14257 cases of adenovirus,64264 cases of rotavirus,and 5037 cases of norovirus),Salmonella 5614 cases)for regression modeling analysis.6.Regression modeling analysis was carried out with the meteorological data of each of the five-movement or six-climates periods,corresponding to the incidence data of each period of the year.7.According to the attribute classification of the ’stem’ or ’branch’ of the patient’s date of birth,the Chi-square test was performed on the yearly distribution of the epidemic.8.Carry out regression analysis and modeling according to the classification of the stem and branch attributes of the patient’s date of birth.Results:1.The nature of the correlation between the meteorological factors and the onset of the Pearson analysis is:maximum wind speed,dew point temperature,air temperature,maximum air temperature,minimum air temperature,daily precipitation,relative humidity,and water vapor pressure.These eight meteorological factors are negatively correlated.The two-minute average wind speed and air pressure are positively correlated.2.The model results suggest that the correlation coefficient between the meteorological cumulative effect of the previous 3 years+the current year(4 years)and the incidence of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Guangzhou is 72.7%,and the correlation is high.At the same time,the model results suggest that the four meteorological factors,namely maximum wind speed,temperature,maximum temperature and minimum temperature,can significantly affect the disease onset(0.0001≤P<0.05,statistically significant).3.The correlation coefficient between the meteorological cumulative effect of the previous 3 years+the current year(4 years)and the incidence of norovirus infection is 92%,and the correlation coefficient with the incidence of salmonella infection is 97%,both of which have extremely high correlation with the cumulative meteorological effects;while the correlation coefficient of incidence of adenovirus infection is 67%,and of rotavirus infection is 59%,suggesting that the incidence of the two is closely related to the cumulative meteorological The relationship is not high,and the correlation is average.4.The meteorological-morbidity model built by using the meteorological data of each of the five-movements or the six-climates period alone,the results of each model are not up to 70%,and the correlation coefficient is average.There are meteorological factors that have a significant impact on the disease in each six-climate period;and in each five-movement period,there are no relevant meteorological variables for the fourth and final periods.5.Chi-square test shows that the patient’s date of birth,and the distribution of stem and branch attributes have significant statistical significance.According to the patient’s birth year stem type,the patient’s high incidence year has a 10-year rhythm.,according to the classification of the patient’s birth year,the high incidence year of the patient has a 6-year rhythm.6.The results of the birth endowment-climate-morbidity regression prediction model suggest that:6.1 According to the classification of birth year(yearly movement),there are five types of patients whose onset and meteorological variables have a correlation coefficient higher than 70%,and the correlation is high.They are Wu too much fire(99%),Ji too little earth(93%),Xin too little water(90%),Ding too little wood(88%),and Gui too little Fire(75%).6.2 According to the classification of birth year(Yearly climate),there are two types of patients whose incidence and meteorological variables have a correlation coefficient higher than 70%,and the correlation is high,namely:Yin Shen Shaoyang PhaseFire(81%),Maoyou Yangming DryMetal(77%).7.After further analysis and comparison of model results,it was found that the type of weather that affects the onset of the disease is the difference in the attributes of the patient’s Five-movement and Six-climate endowment:7.1 Taking the attributes of the Five-Movements as an example:there are 9 meteorological factors that have a significant correlation with the onset of the disease of those whose birth year is Wuhuoxia(maximum wind speed,2-minute average wind speed,dew point temperature,air temperature,maximum air temperature,minimum air temperature,relative humidity,daily precipitation,and daily average air pressure);while there were only two meteorological factors(dew point temperature,water vapor pressure)that had a significant correlation with the incidence of the disease in people whose birth year was Renmu Taigao.7.2 Taking the attributes of the Six-Climates as an example:there are 9 meteorological factors that have a significant correlation with the onset of people whose birth year is Yin or Shen(Shaoyang Phase Fire):2-minute average wind speed,maximum wind speed,dew point temperature,air temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,daily precipitation,water vapor pressure,and daily average air pressure;while there are only three meteorological factors that have a significant correlation with the onset of the birth year of Chou or Wei(Taiyin WetEarth):dew point temperature,air temperature and relative humidity.Conclusion1.The "Three-Year Into-An-Epidemic" refers to the fact that due to the"misplacement" of the Movements and Climates order,the weather on the ground is abnormal,and after a period of accumulated abnormality,a plague will be brewed,and this plague must occur within three years,Based on this theory,this study attempts to conduct correlation research on the incidence of other infectious diarrhea diseases.Results prove,using comprehensive meteorological data of the first three years+the year of onset to analyze the meteorological-onset regression model,model coefficients were significantly higher than those using same-period meteorological variables.The results obtained better accuracy,this methodology is worthy of promotion.2.According to the observation of the epidemic characteristics,it is certain that the occurrence of other infectious diarrheal diseases(OIDDs)is closely related to the season and climate.The peak of the incidence occurs during alternation season of the region,either in the autumn-winter(November-December),or during the winter-spring period(January-February),the environmental meteorology has obvious time-climate characteristics.The results of the study showed that:the increase of wind force,the decrease of ambient temperature or body temperature are all significant factors affecting the increase of other infectious diarrhea diseases in this area.3.Combined with the analysis of the etiology theory of traditional Chinese medicine,the increase of wind force and the drop of temperature in the environment,these belong to the‘wind-evil’and‘cold-evil’among the six evils caused by exogenous pathogenesis.The occurrence of diarrhea caused by wind evil and cold evil is highly in line with the logic of the five elements of traditional Chinese medicine.Wind belongs to wood in the five elements,spleen and stomach belong to earth,if the wood qi is too strong,it will take advantage of the earth and cause diarrhea.The small intestine,which belong to fire of the five elements of,if invaded by cold evils whose five elements belong to water,and the intestinal function fails,diarrhea will follow.Wind inherently restrains earth,water inherently restrains fire;if the wind is too strong and the cold is too strong,the mutual restraint will be multiplied,and the spleen and stomach of the soil and the small intestine of the fire will be multiplied to produce diarrhea.4.Different pathogens lead to different degrees of correlation between the disease and the climate.The attributes of the stem and branch of the date of birth are different,and the correlation degree of the disease is also different due to the influence of the weather.The type of patients with Wu Too-much Fire or Shen Shaoyang Phase-fire are the types of patients who are particularly susceptible to the disease due to the influence of weather.Moreover,the types of meteorological factors that have an impact on the disease are also different according to the attributes of the stem and branch luck of the date of birth.5.The results of Chi-square test(P value<0.001,with extremely statistically significant)suggest that,according to the classification of stem and branch of patients birth year,it is possible to infer the year when this type of population is susceptible to the disease.For example,it is calculated according to the stem of the year:people born in year A have a high incidence in year B,and people born in year B have a high incidence in year B,and so on.For example,it is calculated according to the yearly branch:people born in Zi and Wu years have a high incidence in Chou and Wei years,people born in Chou and Wei years have a high incidence in Yin and Shen years,and so on.According to the 2 characters in the"horoscope" of the patient’s birth time,the year when other infectious diarrheal diseases are highly susceptible to different populations in the region can be calculated.In each 12-year cycle,each person is susceptible to other infectious diarrheal diseases for 3 years;and the meteorological factors of susceptibility also vary from person to person.Specifically,take the year of birth in the year of Wuzi(2008)as an example,the year of birth is Wu,too-much fire and Monarch Fire.Such patients will be extremely vulnerable to OIDDs during year of Jichou(2009),Yiwei(2015),and Jihai(2019).The significant affecting factors are 10 meteorological factors(maximum wind speed,dew point temperature,air temperature,maximum air temperature,minimum air temperature,relative humidity,daily precipitation,etc.)6.This study uses the multiple regression modeling and prediction method composed of birth-date attributes classification,comprehensive meteorological variables and disease data,which is an innovative move in this field.The research results confirm the scientific nature of the " counting to predict Disease ",epidemic prediction can be individualized to a certain extent and is easy to remember.These rules are not only of guiding significance to the health of the masses,but also have universal applicability for simple disease prevention measures,such as taking shelter from wind and cold.At the same time,the accuracy of the results obtained by the regression model analysis method after refining the classification has been greatly improved,and it is suitable for the research design of other epidemic diseases and academic research on physical endowment.This method is worthy of promotion and use. |
