| Agricultural mechanization is the only way to realize agricultural modernization.After decades of construction and development,the development of Agricultural Mechanization in China is generally gratifying.However,as China’s economic development has changed from a high-speed growth stage to a comprehensive,coordinated and sustainable high-quality development stage,the development environment faced by agricultural production has changed greatly and there are still many unbalanced,uncoordinated,and unsustainable problems in the development of agricultural mechanization.Scientific strategic decision making for the development of agricultural mechanization is of great significance to ensure the sustainable and stable increase of agricultural production,change the growth mode,and improve the efficiency of agricultural output.According to the requirements of the Rural Revitalization Strategy,the development of agricultural mechanization should be guided by the concept of innovation,coordination,green,openness and sharing,which fully shows that the development of agricultural mechanization can not only consider rough growth and development,but also consider comprehensive and coordinated development with social economy,agricultural production efficiency,and ecological environment.How to better promote the healthy,stable and sustainable development of agricultural mechanization is one of the important research topics in the development decision-making of agricultural mechanization.Its main task is to scientifically evaluate the influencing factors,level and quality of the sustainable development in a certain area.Around this central issue,the main research work of this paper is as follows.(1)The concept of sustainable development of agricultural mechanization was expounded,and its core connotation was condensed.First,this study comprehensively combs the literature on the development theory of agricultural mechanization at home and abroad,reviews relevant research results from three aspects: the development theory and evaluation method of agricultural mechanization,the theory of sustainable development of agriculture and the research status of sustainable development of agricultural mechanization,and theoretically discusses the development concept of agricultural mechanization The connotation of sustainable development and agricultural sustainable development,the concept,connotation,structure,significance and specific implementation mode of agricultural mechanization.The five core criteria for the evaluation of sustainable development quality of agricultural mechanization(ESQDAM)have been put forward: high quality and efficiency,all-round,green and lowcarbon,balanced and coordinated,smart and intelligent.(2)The system analysis method is used to analyze the system characteristics of agricultural mechanization,identify and analyze the factors affecting the sustainable development of agricultural mechanization,and build the system structure affecting the sustainable development of agricultural mechanization.Firstly,through literature analysis,field investigation,and data analysis,the environmental elements of agricultural mechanization system are comprehensively analyzed,and the structural characteristics,internal relationship and functional objectives of agricultural mechanization system are clarified;Second,it identifies and analyzes the factors affecting the ESQDAM in Hubei,summarizes several system dimensions closely related to the development of agricultural mechanization by a theoretical framework of driving force-pressure-state-impactresponse(DPSIR),including economic,social population,agricultural production,industry,science and technology,policy support,ecological environment and other factors,and determines the main 30 influencing factors of the ESQDAM,The present situation,functions and problems of these factors are analyzed and discussed.(3)Construct the index system for the evaluation of sustainable development quality of agricultural mechanization.According to the qualitative characteristics of the extracted30 relevant factors,it is quantified in combination with the method of fuzzy theory,and then the combination method of decision making trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)and interpretive structure modeling(ISM)is used,Analyze the relationship and structural level among the factors affecting the sustainable development of agricultural mechanization.Then,the relevant data of Hubei province from 2004 to 2020 are collected and selected,and the multi-latent variable partial least squares structural equation model(PLS-SEM)method is used to test the significance of the influence path between the factors of the ESQDAM in Hubei,and quantify its path coefficient,so as to improve the above evaluation index system of the ESQDAM.Finally,the ESQDAMDPSIR quantitative evaluation model of sustainable development of agricultural mechanization is constructed.The results show that the selected indicators play a significant role in the evaluation of this problem,and the quantitative results are basically consistent with the current situation of the interactive relationship between the development of agricultural machinery in Hubei.(4)The dynamic model of SD system is used to evaluate the sustainable development of Hubei Province as a whole.This study constructs the simulation system dynamics of agricultural mechanization system in Hubei Province,analyzes the dynamic characteristics of the agricultural mechanization system,such as element coordination and cyclic feedback,and carries out the system dynamic simulation analysis of the established model with the VENSIM platform.According to the status of agricultural mechanization system in Hubei Province,the specific data of 30 indicators in Hubei Province are substituted.Through adjustment of parameters in the model,the target value of the plan is achieved.Finally,the development trend is predicted in 2035.The results show that the model has a certain reference value in the sustainable development of agricultural mechanization and the later analysis of the evolution trend of similar systems.(5)Based on the urgent need of agricultural production mechanization in Hubei Province,this paper makes a specific empirical analysis on the ESQDAM in typical areas of Hubei Province by using the above methods.Firstly,completed the overall evaluation of the ESQDAM in Hubei Province.The results show that the methods used are effective.Second,collect the development data of agricultural machinery in typical states and cities,analyze the differences,and explore the current situation,existing problems,and solutions of the main influencing them.Finally,corresponding suggestions are put forward to promote the sustainable development of agricultural mechanization in Hubei,mainly including: increasing the economic investment in agricultural mechanization;strengthening the support services of agricultural machinery supporting services;Increase reasonable support policies;shaping the innovative development path of agricultural mechanization;Implement the combination of agricultural mechanization development and ecological protection.There are two parts of innovations in this paper: first,it is in evaluation method.In terms of methods,system dynamics,structural equation model,fuzzy theory and DEMATEL + ISM method are comprehensively applied to the analysis and research of the relationship and path of the factors influencing agricultural mechanization,which supplements the relevant research methods,and provides a theoretical basis for the government and society to understand the influencing factors and path of the ESQDAM more clearly.Second,it is creating of the evaluation index system,this study uses the theoretical framework of sustainable development to establish an evaluation index system,and puts forward the objectives and core evaluation criteria for the quality evaluation of agricultural mechanization with sustainable development.Combined with practical analysis,this paper provides feasible policy suggestions to promote the sustainable development of agricultural mechanization,which has a certain theoretical guidance and practical significance for the sustainable development of Agricultural Mechanization in Hubei and even the whole country,and also has a certain reference value for relevant research. |
