Research On Broiler Farmers’ Risk Management From The Persective Of Risk Perception

Since the 1970s,the broiler industry in China has become an important pillar in the agricultural economy through rapid development,and has made great contributions to promoting farmers’ income and improving the dietary structure of residents.When referring to the rural revitalization strategy,the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party pointed out that it is necessary to achieve the organic connection between small farmers and modern agricultural development.Modern agriculture faces more risk challenges.How to carry out effective risk management in the process of small-scale farmers’ transition to modern agriculture is a realistic problem that needs to be solved urgently.Compared with other agricultural sectors,the risk of the broiler industry is more prominent,such as the frequent outbreak of epidemics,the frequent fluctuations in prices caused by short production cycles,the market impact brought about by the deepening of internationalization since the accession to the WTO,and the increasing environmental regulations and the constraints of farmland All these factors have caused great changes in the risk structure and risk characteristics of the broiler industry.Compared with international agricultural developed countries,Chinese agricultural risk management system is slightly insufficient,and farmers have become the main bearers of various risks.Although the broiler industry is highly organized and industrialized,farmers are still the most basic production and decision-making unit.Therefore,it is necessary to systematically explore the following questions:what is the risk situation faced by poultry farmers in the new era?What is the risk perception of the farmers?Is there a difference in risk perception between them?How do farmers’ risk perceptions affect their risk management strategies?The answers of the above problems are of great significance to the sustainable development of the whole industry and the reduction of farmer income fluctuations.The purpose of this study is to explore the risk perception of broiler farmers and the mechanisms by which social capital is affected.On this basis,it analyzes the impact of farmers’ risk perception on their risk management strategy selection from three aspects:farmer strategy,market tool and institutional supply.The findings of this research are supposed to help farmers better spread risk and stabilize production.The main research contents and related conclusions of this paper are as follows:Research content 1:Analysis of the status quo and risk characteristics of the broiler industry.This part mainly uses descriptive statistical analysis methods to examine the development status of the broiler industry and the current risk status and risk characteristics of the industry.The research results show that China is one of the major broiler producers in the world and the second largest consumer of chicken products after the United States,but it is in a net import in international trade;broiler production capacity remains stable in the domestic market and poultry products accounts for 70%of the poultry production.Chicken products have been the second largest comsuned meat only after pork,and the proportion of consumption has shown an overall upward trend.While the broiler industry is developing rapidly,it is also faced with multiple risks:the risk of disease and market risk are the main and basic sources of risk for the broiler industry.In recent years,the strengthening of environmental regulations and the adjustment of land policies have intensified the industry.Policy risk tends to expand further.With the advancement of broiler industrialization and large-scale development,farmers’ demand for funds has increased,and financial risks have become an emerging type of risk.In general,the risks of Chinese broiler industry mainly show three major characteristics:Firstly,the risk sources are increasingly diversified;Secondly,the interaction between risk sources increases;Thirdly,the imbalance of risk status between different farming entities is expanded.The trend is that the risk loss of small and medium-sized farmers is more serious.Research content 2:Analysis of the impact of social capital on farmers’ risk perception.The goal of this section is to analyze the impact mechanism of social capital and social network relationships on risk perception formation in addition to individual and external characteristics of farmers.On the basis of descriptive analysis,the factor analysis method is used to classify the risk sources,and then the stepwise regression method is used to empirically test the role of social capital in farmers’ risk perception.The research results show that farmers’ risk perception can be classified into four categories:market risk perception,institutional risk perception,production risk perception and financial risk perception.The impact of social capital on risk perception mainly through two mechanisms:one is to broaden the information channels of farmers and reduce the cost of information acquisition,thereby reducing the uncertainty caused by incomplete information;the second is to increase mutual support within social networks,which increase the protection of farmers through the informal channels.The vertical relationship in social networks mainly helps to improve farmers’ financial risk perception,while horizontal linkage has a significant positive impact on farmers’ market risk perception,institutional risk perception and production risk perception.The type of relationship in the social network can affect the risk perception of farmers,but the strength of the relationship in the social network is also very important.The strengthening of contact with friends and relatives engaged in broiler farming can further enhance farmers’ production risk perception,and the strengthening of contact with livestock station staff can further improve farmers’ market risk perception and institutional risk perception,and increase the amount of government subsidies.It can further improve farmers’ financial risk perception.Research content 3:Analysis of the impact of farmer’s risk perception on their selection of risk management strategies.The objective of this part is to analyze the impact of farmers’ risk perception on their risk management strategy choices.Based on descriptive analysis,2SLS with IV model and Multivariate Probit model are used to empirically test the comprehensive utilization of risk management measures and independent strategies.The results show that farmers with higher risk perception will be more active in adopting more kinds of management measures to avoid risk.Among them,market risk perception and production risk perception are the main reasons that affect their risk management behavior.Compared with the management characteristics of farmers,their individual characteristics play a more significant role in influencing the choice of comprehensive risk management measures for farmers.The proportion of age,gender and aquaculture income has a significant negative impact on the comprehensive risk management of farmers,while the total family income has a significant positive impact on the comprehensive risk management of farmers.Although the risk perception of independent-operated farmers is higher,the lack of external support of them is significantly lower than that of farmers who join companies or cooperatives.From the perspective of specific strategy choices,market risk perception,institutional risk perception and production risk perception are the main factors affecting farmers’ strategic choices.Farmers with higher market risk perceptions are more inclined to adopt equipment improvement methods for risk management,and at the same time reduce diversification strategies for income fluctuations,which indicates that the increase in specialization in broiler production can effectively reduce risks;Farmers with higher levels of knowledge have higher probability of using savings,seeking government help,and improving equipment;farmers with higher awareness of production risk tend to use improved disease prevention technology and savings for risk management.Research content 4:Analysis of the impact of farmer risk perception on farmer’s insurance demand.This part first describes the current development status and existing problems of broiler insurance in China.Secondly,it uses descriptive statistics to analyze farmers’awareness of brolier insurance,insurance demand and differences between farmers.Based on this analysis,it further uses the Ordered Probit model to empirically test the willingness of farmers to purchase broiler insurance.The research results show that Chinese broiler insurance is still in the development stage.Since it is not included in the central financial subsidy system,the insurance supply is constranted in certain areas.Farmers have a high demand for broiler insurance while the actual purchase ratio is low,and the reason lies in the lack of insurance supply.From the farmer’s point of view,the increase in risk perception,the improvement of insurance understanding,the increase in the awareness of insurance importance,and the increase in household income will significantly increase farmers’ willingness to purchase broiler insurance,while the increase in broiler breeding years will increase their purchase willingness Other risk management strategies have no obvious substitution effect on insurance demand.Research content 5:International comparison of livestock risk management system.This section first analyzes the necessity and role of the government in livestock risk management and the policy tools that can be used.Secondly,it analyzes the effectiveness of Japan and the United States in livestock risk management through comparative institutional analysis from institutional evolution and management tools.Compare the current shortcomings in this field in China and summarize the experience for reference.The research results show that developed countries have formed a relatively complete system for livestock risk management,which is based on legal guarantees and financial support,with agricultural insurance as the main tool,supplemented by disaster relief and disaster risk warning.Farmers’ risk management training and other means cover multiple risks faced by farmers.In contrast,Chinese current livestock risk management is still at a relatively low level of development,the risk management system is not yet sound,and there are fewer institutional tools to choose from.Therefore,efforts should be made to improve the risk management system,strengthen relevant regulations,optimize the financial subsidy systems and innovative risk management tools.