| Hebei province is one of the most important winter wheat producing areas in China.For a long time,it has made great contributions to ensuring national food security.However,due to the bottleneck of regional resources,when the high-input model of winter wheat production has achieved high yield,it paid a huge ecological cost,such as serious over-exploitation of irrigation water resources and aggravated greenhouse gas emission of farmland.With the continuous progress of the integration of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei province,Hebei province’s ecological function has become prominent,and the strategy of water-saving and emission reduction in winter wheat production,which is characterized by high resource consumption,has been increasingly paid attention to.At the same time,along with the economy continues to develop,fundamental changes have taken place in agricultural production mode,the new subject which are represented by the family farm and professional investors has increasingly become the dominant force of industry,the situation is particularly obvious in Hebei province,the northern of Huang-huai-hai area.Compared to the past,the new cultivation subject have different characteristics in farming,field management,technology and equipment,agricultural materials input,and almost all aspects.To investigate their characteristics of taking the water-saving and emission-reduction technical measures is particularly important.Taking winter wheat as the research object,taking water footprint and carbon footprint,the two most important footprints in the footprint family,as tools,and taking water-saving and emission-reduction planting technology as the carrier,this paper comprehensively analyzed and investigated the water footprint and carbon footprint characteristics of different planting subjects in major ecological production areas of winter wheat in Hebei province.And in which the trend of water footprint’s change in future climate model is predicted.And the factors influencing the adoption of related technologies,technical efficiency and satisfaction are also studied.From the perspective of comprehensive analysis and the perspective of the system as a whole,the "water resource consumption","greenhouse gas emission" and "application of water-saving and emission-reduction technology" of regional winter wheat were comprehensively studied through a complete logical relationship.The main conclusions were as follows:1.It is feasible to predict the future meteorological conditions of Taihang mountain piedmont plain area and Heilonggang low plain area in Hebei province by using SDSM combined with NCEP to reanalysis daily data and global climate model HadCM3 under the scenarios of A2 and B2.Among them,the effect of prediction of temperature index is the best,and the effect of prediction of other indexes is not as good as that of temperature index,but it also meets the requirements of standard.The average annual temperature in the front plain area of Taihang mountain under the A2 model in 2020-2049 is 0.17℃ higher than that in the base period from 1989 to 2018,and that in the B2 model is 0.14℃ higher.Moreover,the temperature range will become larger in the future,and the climate will change more dramatically.The average humidity also increased,2.04 percent in A2 and 2.63 percent in B2.Sunshine hours increased by 0.12h under A2 condition and decreased by 0.08h under B2 condition.The wind speed decreased by 0.06m/s and 0.04m/s respectively under the two conditions.Precipitation decreased by 7.5mm under A2 condition and increased by 6.9mm under B2 condition.The average annual temperature in the A2 mode in 2020-2049 of low plain area of Heilonggang is 0.27℃ higher than that in the base period from 1989 to 2018,and that in B2 mode is 0.2℃ higher.The average humidity decreased by 4.5%under A2 condition and increased by 5.1%under B2 condition.Sunshine hours decreased by 0.11h and 0.07h respectively.Wind speeds are basically flat.Precipitation increased by 4.4mm under A2 condition and decreased by 2.4mm under B2 condition.Overall,the range of climate change in the Heilonggang low plain is larger than that in the piedmont plain.2.DSSAT model can be applied to two main ecological-typology areas of winter wheat in Hebei province.Under the production mode of "spring irrigation for one water" in the piedmont plain area of Taihang mountains,the optimal irrigation level of 95mm at the joint stage is the minimum irrigation amount that can create the yield of 500kg per mu for the region’s winter wheat.Under the production mode of "spring irrigation for two waters",the combination of 60mm irrigation at jointing stage and 35mm irrigation at heading and flowering stage is the optimal scheme of 500kg yield per mu.The combination of irrigation in this scheme is also the minimum irrigation amount that can create minimum yield.Under the production mode of "spring irrigation for one water" in the low plain area of Heilonggang,55mm of irrigation at jointing stage is the optimal scheme,which is the minimum irrigation amount of 400kg yield per mu for winter wheat in the region.However,under the mode of "spring irrigation for two waters",the minimum yield of 400kg can only be obtained when the irrigation reaches 95mm,indicating that irrigation at jointing stage is the most critical.In the piedmont plain of Taihang mountain,as long as 60%of the demand of the normal irrigation of winter wheat in the key growth period is satisfied,and as long as 40%of the demand of the normal irrigation of winter wheat in the low plain area of Heilonggang,considerable yield can be obtained in the two areas.The irrigation amount of winter wheat of optimized scheme in the low plain area of Heilonggang is only 58%of that in the piedmont plain area.75mm～95mm is the interval of efficient use of water for winter wheat in piedmont plain area,and 55mm～75mm is the interval of efficient use of water for winter wheat in low plain area of Heilonggang.95mm is the critical value of single irrigation for winter wheat in the piedmont plain area,but the amount of marginal water in the low plain area of Heilonggang is higher than this level,which is related to the regional climatic conditions and soil conditions.3.The water footprint of overall yield of winter wheat in piedmont plain area is between 0.35 and 0.51m3/kg,the green water footprint of the two optimization schemes is between 0.14 and 0.25m3/kg,and the blue water footprint is basically around 0.2m3/kg.The water footprint of total yield of winter wheat in low plain area of Heilonggang was between 0.39 and 0.58m3/kg,Water was irrigated once during the growth period,The optimal solution with water volume of 55mm has the lowest water footprint of overall output,0.39～0.48 m3/kg,green water footprint is between 0.16～0.33 m3/kg,and the blue water footprint is between 0.18～0.28 m3/kg,The fluctuation range is larger than the piedmont plain area,and the overall level is also low.It indicates that the potential of further saving water in the two types of areas depending on irrigation quantity and system has been relatively limited.The water footprint of yield of winter wheat in the region under the condition of A2 in pienmont plain is 0.37～0.52m3/kg,among which the green water footprint is 0.17～0.28 m3/kg and the blue water footprint is 0.20～0.24 m3/kg.The water footprint of yield of winter wheat under B2 condition was 0.36～0.51 m3/kg,among whichthe green water footprint was 0.24～0.34 m3/kg,and the blue water footprint was 0.18～0.23 m3/kg.The water footprint of winter wheat of regional yield under the A2 condition of low plain of Heilonggang is 0.39～0.57m3/kg,among which the green water footprint is 0.29～0.35 m3/kg,and the blue water footprint is 0.19～0.26 m3/kg.The water footprint of winter wheat of regional yield under B2 condition was 0.39～0.51m3/kg,among which thegreen water footprint was 0.26～0.35 m3/kg,and the blue water footprint was 0.18～0.22 m3/kg.4.Family farms and large planters among the new planting subjects are more efficient than traditional small-farmers in almost all aspects of winter-wheat planting,which is mainly caused by differences in scale effect,capital strength and production philosophy and so on.However,the difference of the farmers characteristics who join the cooperative vary greatly,ranging from little difference with the traditional small-farmers to convergence with the characteristics of large growers,which is mainly caused by the combining means and the degree of integration between the cooperative and the farmers.The characteristics of family farms and large planters are similar in each link of winter wheat production,so the values of carbon footprint are the same in the end.The comprehensive carbon footprint is 3948.56kg ce/ha.The comprehensive carbon footprint of traditional small-farmers is 4696.78kg ce/ha,18.95%higher than the former.In each stage,the upstream-input emissions of family farms and large planters are 15.76%lower than those of traditional small-farmers.High fuel-power consumption is 36.24%;electric power of irrigation has the biggest difference,the latter is 2.56 times of the former.The average yield and bulk density of winter-wheat of family farms and large planters are also higher than those of traditional small-farmers,further widening the gap of carbon footprint of wheat per-unit output.The former is only 0.45kg ce/kg,while the latter is 0.57kg ce/kg,with a difference of 26.67%.From the perspective of the whole-life cycle,the carbon emissions of each link of family farms and large planters are successively:the upstream-production link of inputs,accounting for 39.53%;Nitrogen fertilizer application,accounting for 37.65%;Fuel-power link,accounting for 12.68%;Irrigation and electricity,10.13%.The order of traditional small-farmers is successively:the link of upstream-production of input,accounting for 38.48%;Nitrogen fertilizer application,accounting for 31.85%;These two items are the same as the former,followed by irrigation and electricity,accounting for 21.85%.Fuel-power link,accounting for 7.83%.5.To use the Logistic-model to analyze the willingness of growers to adopt water-saving and emission-reduction technology,and it was found that the influencing factors of different subjects were different,and the direction of influence of the same influencing-factor on different subjects was also different.On the whole,the new type of planting subjects are less affected by individual and family characteristics,but more affected by production and management characteristics,indicating that the decision-making is more rational and the subject is more like an entrepreneur.However,traditional small-farmers are more affected by individual family and environmental characteristics.To use the-structural-equation to investigate the overall satisfaction of the two types of new planting-subjects on the promotion of water-saving and emission-reduction technology,Overall satisfaction was moderate.and the satisfaction of the work of agricultural-technology promotion carried out by universities and research institutes relying on the project is higher than that of the promotion department of agricultural-technology from the government at the grass-roots level.The main reasons are as follows:firstly,the former has a stronger professional and technical background.Generally,those who go deep into the production line are experts and scholars in various fields in the database,so they have strong service capacity and can timely solve problems in production practice.The relevant technology-integration system developed by them is generally the scientific-research results that have been tested in practice and can effectively improve the production level and income,so it is more popular.However,the latter is still lacking in service ability and service mode.Sometimes,in order to complete the training task,it even causes burden to the trainees. |
