| Foot and mouth disease(FMD)is a typical zoonotic infectious disease.The pathogen is FMDV.The characteristics of foot-and-mouth disease include: sudden,high contact,heat,infection of a variety of animals,including pigs.Because foot and mouth disease spread far faster than other similar infectious diseases,it has a wide coverage and high incidence rate.Therefore,it often has a bad impact on the aquaculture industry,resulting in huge economic losses to the aquaculture owners.Before the development of foot-and-mouth disease(OIE)in the domestic animal breeding industry,it is strictly required to avoid the loss of animal health.The infectious range and transmission speed of FMD rank first among various animal diseases,reflecting strong infectivity.Because foot and mouth disease is highly contagious and has a high incidence rate,so long as it causes disease,it will cause huge economic losses to people,and it can not be effectively controlled in a short time,resulting in bad social impact.FMD has a wide geographical distribution.In terms of epidemic history,foot-and-mouth disease has occurred in almost all countries and regions except Antarctica.The epidemic is mainly concentrated in Asia,Africa and parts of Europe adjacent to Asia.In terms of areas and people affected by foot-and-mouth disease,FMD disease will healthy development of pig industry,Strengthening the understanding of characteristics of porcine FMD will be conducive to the formulation of relevant prevention and control strategies,in order to reduce the impact of porcine FMD on the breeding industry.In this paper,the epidemic data of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease in China from January 1,2010 to March 31,2021 provided by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas were collected and sorted out as the research basis.The data information covers the onset time,location,number and frequency of FMD;The factors that affect the incidence of FMD infectious diseases in mainland China are classified and classified,including the trade situation of the mainland,the climate characteristics of the Chinese mainland,the internal environment,the density of pigs,the highway transportation system,the number of population,and the planning of railway branch lines.Based on the method was used to analyze the local distribution characteristics of foot-and-mouth disease,and the transmission direction of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease was understood and predicted by means of directional distribution analysis method;Based on the spatial-temporal aggregation analysis method,the layout and incidence characteristics of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease were deeply mined;Form a perfect structural equation model based on the influencing factors and epidemic information of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease,and establish Max Ent model in combination with the transmission speed and direction of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease,mainly explore and analyze the transmission and harm of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease,understand the key factors causing the risk of this disease,clarify the specific risk area,and formulate a reasonable disease control system according to the characteristics and trend of disease transmission,Collecting and obtaining data and information related to the infectious disease will help to improve the data related to animal diseases.The research contents are as follows:(1)collect and collate the data of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease from January 1,2010 to March 31,2021,which is provided by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas.As a basis for research,the incidence rate of foot and mouth disease is analyzed and analyzed.The distribution of foot and mouth disease is investigated and investigated based on the global spatial autocorrelation analysis method.The local distribution characteristics of foot-and-mouth disease are analyzed by the method of local spatial autocorrelation analysis.For the global spatial autocorrelation analysis,the conclusion shows that the distribution pattern of FMD epidemic points in Chinese mainland is random distribution pattern in 2010-2021 years.O The results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the distribution of FMDV in Chinese mainland was 2010-2021 in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in the year of O,and the cold spots were distributed in Guizhou province.The results of directional distribution analysis showed that the distribution of FMDV in pig type O in Chinese mainland had obvious direction in 2010-2021 years,and was northwest southeast direction.The center point was located in Yanting County,Sichuan(105.380015 E,31.12696N).(2)Based on the incidence,time,scale and location of swine foot-and-mouth disease type O in China from 2010 to 2021,the spatio-temporal aggregation area of swine foot-and-mouth disease type O was planned and defined with the help of spatio-temporal aggregation analysis method.The results show that it mainly includes two spatiotemporal aggregation areas: one is the first-order spatiotemporal aggregation area;The second is the secondary space-time agglomeration area.Taking the first-class space-time gathering area as an example,it radiates around Aksu region in Xinjiang,including some areas of Tibet Autonomous Region,the whole territory of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,some areas of Qinghai Province,most of Gansu Province and a small part of the western part of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.The secondary space-time gathering area gathers in the southwest and radiates around Sandu Shui Autonomous County of Guizhou Province,covering the whole territory of Guizhou Province,Guangxi Province,most of Hunan Province and Chongqing,Sichuan Province,the east of Yunnan Province and some parts of the northwest of Guangdong Province.(3)based on the data collected from pig incidence rate of O and foot-and-mouth disease from2010 to 2021,a structural equation model was established.Combined with the trade risk factors,Max Ent model was established to investigate and investigate the relationship between trade and transportation factors and the incidence of O type foot and mouth disease.The research findings show that pork demand will directly affect the incidence of O FMDV,and the greater the demand for pork transport,the higher the incidence rate of FMD,showing a significant positive correlation.Railway density and highway density will have a direct impact on the occurrence of swine foot-and-mouth disease type O,which is a very key traffic risk factor.Daily average temperature,daily average relative humidity,daily average light duration,driest monthly precipitation and UV-B seasonality are the main environmental factors affecting the occurrence of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease.(4)The risk assessment model of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease based on AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is established.This method is used to evaluate the risk of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease in Northeast China.According to the set risk assessment score,the results show that the risk degree of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease is moderate.(5)The monitoring and early warning system of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease is based on Web GIS,using B / S architecture,Java Script language and management software.Based on the analysis of the spread law of foot-and-mouth disease in the early stage of the paper,the functional structure of the system is designed,and the database is established to correlate various data;Read the literature and consult relevant experts to design the functional objectives of the monitoring and early warning system,realize the data collection and data analysis of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease epidemic situation,realize the drawing and presentation of epidemic situation map,realize the monitoring and early warning of epidemic situation data lay a foundation for the proposal and application of prevention and control measures,and provide data function support.To sum up,this study analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease in a specific time,deeply understood the distribution mode of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease,investigated the distribution of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease,predicted the transmission direction of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease,and planned and marked the temporal and spatial aggregation area of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease.What needs to be clear is that studying and discussing the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease can deeply understand and recognize the pathogenesis and epidemic trend of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease,lay a foundation for the proposal and implementation of epidemic prevention and control measures,and provide important reference basis.Through the establishment of structural equation model and Max Ent model,the author summarizes and combs the trade and traffic factors affecting the occurrence of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease,and divides the incidence risk areas of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease,which can help us understand and grasp the etiology of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease,so as to put forward effective epidemic prevention measures and schemes,avoid the large-scale spread of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease,and effectively control the epidemic situation,It has important practical significance.In this paper,the monitoring and early warning system of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease is constructed in order to realize the real-time monitoring and analysis of swine type O foot-and-mouth disease,give full play to the powerful risk early warning function,provide support for the monitoring and management of managers,reasonably allocate epidemic prevention resources,and realize the accurate prevention and control and effective monitoring of the epidemic situation... |
