| Developed large-scale urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas around the world have established multi-mode regional rail transit systems with significant synergistic benefits.With the process of urbanization and construction of urban agglomerations in China,rail transit has shown a multi-mode development pattern,and the operation and management mode has gradually changed from a single-mode relatively independent to a multi-mode integrated and coordinated direction.The progress of rail transit in China has brought the rapid growth of travel demand,which led to the incompatibility and imbalance between the supply and demand;Besides,the concept of high-quality service pays more attention to the supply of collaborative services and the satisfaction of diversified demand;Furthermore,the characteristics of multi-mode,comprehensiveness,and synergy lead to more types and higher frequency of emergencies in regional rail transit system,which affect the system operation status,easily cause the loss of capacity,and even threaten the safety of passengers’ lives and property.To solve these problems,this dissertation aimed to improve the efficiency,service quality,and safety of the regional rail transit system and built a multi-scale carrying capacity concept system from the aspects of "points-lines-networks".According to the characteristics of service quality perception and supply-demand matching,the effective carrying capacity and residual carrying capacity of the system were extended,and a calculation method was proposed.Aiming at the travel behavior of passengers in emergencies,the carrying capacity evaluation of regional rail transit system was carried out from the two aspects: system carrying capacity reliability and system resilience.The calculation and evaluation of carrying capacity in the regional rail transit system not only helps to provide decision support for system planning,transformation and coordination,but also helps to adjust the balance between supply and demand,to improve system efficiency and travel experience,and to improve system service quality and safety.The main work can be summarized into the following five aspects:(1)Taking the regional rail transit system as the research object and using the multi-layer network theory,a multi-layer regional rail transit spatial network and spatiotemporal network were proposed.It makes up for the vacancy of characteristic research from the perspective of multi-system synergy caused by the independent research of railway system and urban rail transit system.According to the development history of "carrying capacity" and its application in the field of transportation,the concept of carrying capacity of the regional rail transit system was defined and expanded,the applicability of the concept system was enhanced,and the influencing factors were analyzed.(2)The influencing factors of passenger route selection in the regional rail transit system were analyzed,and a questionnaire survey and data analysis of passenger travel behavior were carried out.From the perspective of integrated travel demand within the system,travel categories were integrated and divided,and travel behavior analysis was carried out based on these categories.It provides theoretical and data support for the research.At the same time,the travel demand of the regional rail transit system was classified according to the ticket type,so that the travel demand in the system could be classified and counted in an integrated manner.(3)Through the research on the service level of stations,hubs and lines,the service level measurement method of regional rail transit system was proposed;A spatial route selection model based on utility rules was established according to the travel category;And a multi-agent simulation of passenger flow deduction system was established.The pressure test process and calculation method of the effective carrying capacity of the system was raised.The calculation of the effective carrying capacity of the regional rail transit system takes into account the tolerance requirements of passengers for the system service level,and can better show the dynamic relationship between passenger flow changes and various facilities,equipment,and organizations.It can analyze the service level during peak and flat peak periods,improve the limitation of service level on the effective carrying capacity of the system,and improve service quality.(4)Considering the difference between route utility perception and route choice preference,a generalized cost function of spatio-temporal route based on travel category was established,and a spatio-temporal path selection model based on mixed utility-regret rules was further proposed to describe the passenger route choice behavior under the condition of bounded rationality.The distribution state of the passenger flow is dynamically deduced by time and period,considering the spatial and temporal distribution differences of capacity supply and travel demand,which can provide more refined calculation results of the residual carrying capacity and improve the transportation efficiency of the system.Through the identification of the bottleneck of the carrying capacity,the operation status of the system can be grasped,the transportation efficiency of the system can be improved,and the operation risk can be reduced.(5)Aiming at the passenger travel behavior in emergencies,an evaluation method for the carrying capacity of the regional rail transit system was proposed from the aspects of the system carrying capacity reliability and system resilience.In terms of the reliability of carrying capacity,the analysis and calculation was based on lost passenger flow and delayed passenger flow,and the index and quantification method of carrying capacity reliability evaluation was established.In terms of system resilience,the proposed system performance measurement was more accurate.The definition and evaluation method of system resilience could characterize the time-dependent characteristics of system resilience according to the differences in disruptions and passenger behavior.The evaluation of system carrying capacity is of great significance to guarantee the safety and improve the efficiency of the regional rail transit system. |
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