Potential And Incentive Mechanism Analysis Of Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption And Diffusion

To promote the achievement of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,it is necessary to increase the proportion of renewable energy in the urban energy system,and the development of urban distributed photovoltaics is an important way.However,China’s distributed photovoltaics have entered the era of parity,and the “Fall off”problem of subsidy policies has inhibited the growth of distributed photovoltaics in the short term.Therefore,exploring incentive mechanisms to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of participating entities in the absence of state subsidies,so as to promote the adoption and diffusion of distributed photovoltaics has become important issues that need to be solved urgently.Taking as the main line the selection of distributed photovoltaic development model,the assessment of regional distributed photovoltaic development potential,the simulation of adoption and diffusion behavior of distributed photovoltaic,this paper simulates the macro emergence phenomenon of distributed photovoltaic in city from micro individual behaviors,and carries out research on the design of relevant incentive mechanisms to promote the development of urban distributed photovoltaics.First of all,this paper constructs the capacity optimization model of distributed photovoltaic power plants,evaluate the economic and environmental benefits of the rooftop photovoltaic mode,photovoltaic-energy storage combined development mode and photovoltaic-energy storage-charging station mode,seeks the optimal investment ratio of distributed photovoltaic installed capacity,energy storage capacity and electric vehicle charging pile under fixed investment amount,and from the perspective of return on investment and carbon dioxide emission reduction,quantitatively evaluates and individual projects in seven construction sites under the investment scale from 3 to 50 million yuan.The rooftop distributed photovoltaic development model is found to be the optimal development mode currently.Secondly,taking Beijing city as an example,this paper evaluates the development potential of distributed photovoltaic.Integrating interdisciplinary research,this paper uses HRNet image recognition algorithm to extract the longitude and latitude coordinates and installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics on rooftops in Beijing.Taking the identified building roof photovoltaic area as the dependent variable and the building area and house price as the independent variables,this paper constructs a geographically weighted regression model to fit the distributed photovoltaic installed capacity of each building to predict the roof distributed photovoltaic development potential in Beijing currently.Also,this paper identifies the distribution characteristics of rooftop distributed photovoltaics in Beijing in the future by cluster analysis.The research results show that distributed photovoltaic will be mainly distributed in the urban areas outside the 3rd Ring Road in Beijing in the future.Thirdly,the adoption and diffusion behavior of distributed photovoltaic is modeled and the simulation program is designed.With the support of the planned behavior theory,the agent-based rooftop distributed photovoltaic adoption and diffusion model is constructed with the consideration of the interaction between photovoltaic companies and construction agents,the information of "feedback","government information intervention" and "expected subsidy decline" from field research and interview conclusions.Using the historical data of distributed photovoltaic in Beijing to test the model,it is found that the simulation accuracy of the model is more than 96%.Finally,this study predicts the adoption and diffusion results of distributed photovoltaic in Beijing under different incentive mechanism scenarios.By summarizing the policy design of national level,Beijing municipal level and Beijing municipal level,the temporal and spatial evolution process of the adoption and diffusion of rooftop distributed photovoltaic under various incentive mechanisms is analyzed.The results show that,compared with the benchmark scenario with the current policy unchanged,it is more difficult to further improve the distributed photovoltaic installed capacity under the power subsidy and one-off subsidy scenarios.The construction of demonstration projects is effective;The effect of the agent "pays all the funds" mode is more obvious than that of "rent out the rooftop" mode in promoting photovoltaic adoption.