| The automobile industry is an industry with high dependence,technically complex,long value chain and strong economic driving force.Consequently,people in many countries and regions regard automobile industry as the pillar industry of national economy and take the development level of automobile industry as an important symbol of economic strength,the level of science and technology and the level of social development of a country and a region.However,excess capacity is currently restricting China’s automobile industry.What are the historical evolution and typical characteristics of excess capacity of China’s automobile industry? How should we measure and evaluate the excess capacity of China’s automobile industry scientifically? What are the factors influencing the excess capacity of China’s automobile industry? What is the internal mechanism of the formation of excess capacity of China’s automobile industry? It is inevitable to improve the capacity utilization rate in order to solve the excess capacity.Is there any regional convergence in the capacity utilization rate of the automobile industry,? The answers to these questions are not only about the solution of excess capacity in the automobile industry,but also about the smooth promotion of the supply-side structural reform of China’s automobile industry,and more importantly about the high-quality development of the automobile industry.After sorting out the vertical development,horizontal structure and market performance of the China’s automobile industry,this study(Chapter 2)finds that phenomena of the growing scale of the China’s automobile industry,the increasing R&D investment,and the merger and reorganization bring many possibilities for industrial development and operational innovation.(Chapter 3)Based on macro data and micro data of automobile enterprises in the database of Chinese industrial enterprises,the first proposition is derived after using the SBM-DEA model to measure the capacity utilization rate of the automobile industry and enterprises: the average capacity utilization rate of the China’s automobile industry from 1998 to 2018 is 69.14%,which is typically excess capacity.The capacity utilization rate in the eastern area is slightly higher than that in other areas.The capacity utilization rate of state-owned enterprises is significantly lower than that of private and foreign enterprises,and the capacity utilization rate of large-scale enterprises is significantly lower than that of small and medium-sized enterprises.Based on the SCP analysis paradigm(Chapter 4),the market structure and market behavior of China’s automobile industry are incorporated into the framework of market performance analysis.And after analyzing the influence of market factors and government intervention on the excess capacity of China’s automobile industry,the second proposition is derived: The capacity utilization rate of China’s auto industry has typical stages and differences,and is generally lower than the actual capacity.The capacity utilization rate of China’s auto industry is affected by multiple factors,among which market structure factors such as market concentration,barriers to entry and exit,and financial subsidies are responsible for The key elements of overcapacity,R&D investment,energy conservation and emission reduction can promote the improvement of capacity utilization.The market structure of the automobile industry determines the behavior of automobile companies in the market,and the market behavior determines the economic performance of the automobile industry.The macro-mechanism of "financial subsidy-distorted competition" leads to overcapacity in automobile industry which is linked with the micro-mechanisms of "local government protection-high exit barriers-overcapacity","distorted competition-low market concentration-overcapacity" make the logical chain collectively.Then(Chapter 5),an error correction model is constructed,which takes the capacity utilization rate as the explained variable,and the market structure and market behavior as the explanatory variables for quantitative testing,and conducts simulation and derivation based on the Cournot equilibrium model,and finally verifies the automobile excess capacity.The macro-micro linkage mechanism,and got the third proposition: There are temporal and spatial differences in the driving effects of the factors affecting the capacity utilization rate of China’s auto industry.The specific performance is as follows: the influence of market concentration always occupies the main part;the second is the exit barrier,but the role of the exit barrier is gradually weakening;the role of R&D investment and entry barriers is gradually increasing.Due to the differences in the development characteristics of the three regions,the key nodes of the logic chain leading to overcapacity have also changed.By solving the Cournot equilibrium,it shows that both direct financial subsidies and indirect financial subsidies will lead to aggravation of excess capacity.In order to solve the problem of automobile excess capacity,it is necessary to know the convergence of the automobile industry capacity utilization improvement.From the capacity utilization improvement index and its decomposition(Chapter 6),the capacity utilization rate of the national and regional automobile industry showed an obvious trend of improvement and enhancement during the sample period,and its improvement index has undergone the process of "convergence" that evolved from a fluctuating growth to a gradual slowdown.In order to present the dynamic evolution process of the improvement index of capacity utilization rate of China’s automobile industry more clearly,the study analyzes the influencing factors of the improvement index of capacity utilization rate of automobile industry in different periods,so we put forward the fourth proposition: there is an obvious improvement trend of capacity utilization rate of China’s automobile industry,but its dynamic evolution stage and process are different;The driving forces of the improvement of capacity utilization rate of China’s automobile industry in different regions are different,which are mainly divided into three main types: market structure-driven,market behavior-driven and synergy-driven.And the convergence of capacity utilization rates in different types of regions are different.Meanwhile,according to the measurement of spatial convergence and spillover in different regions,the study puts the fifth proposition: there is a typical "spatial and temporal progression" in the convergence of capacity utilization of China’s automobile industry,and the convergence speed and half-life cycle of Class Ⅰ regions are much larger than those of the other two categories,and Class Ⅲ regions have obvious advantages of backwardness.And there is a spatial spillover effect on the improvement of capacity utilization in all three categories.The key to solving the problem of excess capacity of China’s automobile enterprises is reducing the economic intervention of local governments,especially preventing local governments from providing blind financial support to automobile enterprises.In addition,expanding domestic demand,encouraging auto enterprises to "go out" and strengthening supply-side management are also effective means to solve the problem of excess capacity of China’s automobile enterprises.Expanding domestic demand and encouraging enterprises to "go out" are to solve the problem of industrial overcapacity from the demand side,while strengthening supply-side management is to solve the problem of industrial overcapacity from the supply side.Finally,we should attach importance to the structural problems of the excess capacity of China’s automobile industry.The factors that influencing the capacity utilization rate of enterprises in different regions and different ownership systems are significantly different.Therefore,it is necessary to treat them differentially and suit one’s methods to the situation. |
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