Research On Health Monitoring And State Prediction Of Airport Runways Oriented Predictive Maintenance

When operating and maintaining airport pavement,management usually adopts passive maintenance or preventive maintenance strategies.These maintenance methods have some limitations.The passive maintenance is post maintenance after damage or disease has occurred.The preventive maintenance is periodic maintenance and cannot be carried out in a timely manner according to the actual health status of the runway.Therefore,it is necessary to predict runway performance in real time based on runway health condition and carry out targeted active maintenance(predictive maintenance).Although predictive maintenance has made some remarkable achievements in other engineering fields,the research on predictive maintenance of airport runways is still in the primary stage.In order to provide better predictive maintenance strategies for airport runways,the key issues of the predictive maintenance for airport runways are studied in this paper.(1)Based on the full life cycle intelligent sensing of airport runways and aiming at the predictive maintenance of airport runway,a multi-information,multi-sectional,and time-domain intelligent health state sensing system for airport runways is build.According to the aircraft load and traffic situation of the airport,the key areas for placing monitoring sensors on the airport runway are proposed,considering the factors for safe operation of the runway.Considering the characteristics of the sensors themselves and the stress characteristics of the runway,the optimal layout scheme of the sensors is proposed.Considering the safety of airport runway operation and the feasibility of sensor construction,the networking method and system framework of airport runway health monitoring are proposed.And then the health status monitoring system for airport runway predictive maintenance is established.(2)In order to solve the problem that the detection data of single airport runway has less information and insufficient sample size,based on data fusion technology and combined effect model,the multi-parameter,nonlinear and double-effect behavior equations with degradation characteristics of pavement condition index(PCI)of Portland Cement Concrete(PCC)pavement of airport runways is constructed.Considering the difference between different samples of the airport runway data set,a nonlinear combined effects model and a joint estimation method were used to evaluate the performance of PCC pavement of airport runways,considering the differences between different samples of the airport runway data set.Based on the parameter estimation results of the combined effects model,using different data sets,the decay pattern of PCI was analyzed for different airplane traffic levels and different pavement thickness grades.(3)Aiming at the time series updating of airport runway health condition detection data,based on the Bayesian theory,the updating mechanism of Markov random process transfer matrix is proposed.And then the Markov transfer matrix method for airport runway performance prediction is established.Using Markov chain and survival analysis method,the Markov transfer matrix of runway performance prediction is constructed.Considering the influence of airplane traffic,pavement thickness and service life,the weibull type survival function is constructed and the function models of duration for different rating status of the airport runway are established.The Markov transfer matrix method is also used to predict the degradation process of airport runway performance using the Henan local airport runway performance data set.And then the prediction effect is analyzed and evaluated.(4)In order to predict the remaining service life of airport runways more accurately and to provide better decision for predictive maintenance of airport runways,a MEPDG correction method was developed based on the mechanistic-empirical prediction method,considering the reliability of pavement surface strength,aircraft Pass-to-Coverage ratio of airplane and linear cumulative damage of the airport pavement.The actual field data of a civil airport in Henan Province is selected,and the remaining life of airport runways is predicted by using the MEPDG correction method.The results show that the predicted remaining life values are in good agreement with the actual situation and are less influenced by the thickness of the airport pavement surface compared with the specification method,which verifies the practicality of the MEPDG correction method.