Model Simulation And Policy Innovation Of Electric Vehicle Credit Mechanism In China

Climate change and energy security are driving the global auto industry to accelerate its shift to electrification with a view to achieving carbon peak and neutrality targets.Over the past few decades,the Chinese government has promoted the development of the electric vehicle(EV)industry,mainly through demonstration applications and financial subsidies.However,this has resulted in excessive financial pressure on the government,subsidy fraud by car companies and lack of innovation.Therefore,the design of reasonable sustainable innovation policies has become an urgent problem to be solved.The dual-credit policy in 2017 introduced a credit mechanism in China’s passenger vehicle sector,aiming to provide a long-term mechanism for the sustainable development of China’s auto industry under the background of subsidy retreat.The implementation of the credit mechanism has helped to promote the rapid development of EVs.However,there are also some problems,such as insufficient long-term policy objectives,conservative market judgment,unstable supply and demand of credits,and large fluctuation of credit price.It is urgent to solve these problems by optimizing the credit quota mechanism and the intertemporal trading mechanism,in order to provide decision support and policy instruments for realizing the rapid and healthy development of EVs in China.According to the above problem,the domestic and foreign EV policy research and related theories are reviewed.Starting from the uncertainty of market structure brought by the implementation of EV credit mechanism,the game model is built by distinguishing different market power scenarios.Through static analysis,dynamic analysis and numerical simulation,the influence mechanism of credit mechanism on the development of EVs in China is firstly clarified.Meanwhile,this paper quantifies the possible influence of the change of policy,market and financial factors.Based on the constructed dynamic market equilibrium model of the credit quota mechanism and the credit intertemporal trading mechanism respectively,the differences in the policy effects of the four credit quota mechanisms and the three credit intertemporal trading mechanisms are simulated and analyzed.Using macro social,economic,and environmental indicators and micro industry indicators,different mechanisms are optimized.The main results and suggestions are summarized as follows.(1)The implementation of EV credit mechanism can effectively promote the development of EV industry and restrain the growth of traditional fuel vehicles to a certain extent.In a perfectly competitive market environment,the credit mechanism has more advantages in improving the output of EVs and social welfare.In essence,the tightening of NEV credit targets will have a negative impact on the output and profits of traditional fuel vehicle automakers.The output,profits and social welfare of EV automakers are affected by the comprehensive effect of policy,cost and market factors.In addition,as the passenger car market becomes more mature and unit production costs decline,market and cost factors can offset the impact of policy uncertainties.Among them,the contribution of cost factors is the most obvious.(2)The research on the credit quota mechanism shows that the stricter credit quota mechanism will further hinder the improvement of the actual energy saving level of traditional fuel vehicles.And the decelerated growth scenario has the optimal performance in terms of financial pressure reduction value,carbon dioxide emission reduction and EV development scale,which increase by 113%,164% and 113%respectively compared with the base scenario.(3)According to the research on the credit intertemporal trading mechanism,it shows the intertemporal trading mechanism can maintain the supply and demand of credits at a reasonable level and stabilize the price.Under the two intertemporal trading scenarios,the average price of credits can be maintained at more than 3,000 yuan,the volatility can be reduced by 63% at most,and the profits related to EVs can be increased by 101% at most.The incomplete intertemporal mechanism is most prominent in terms of the reduction value of financial pressure,carbon dioxide emission reduction and the scale of EV development,with increases of 124%,225%,and 125%,respectively,relative to the basement scenario.Based on the above research results,this paper puts forward a series of policy innovation recommendations.