| In the past 30 to 40 years,the global value chain(GVC)has been greatly developed and deepened,and at the same time,it has brought about the problem of carbon emission coordination.In fact,the division of labor in the global value chain and the formation of the carbon emission pattern are the result of the general equilibrium formed by the interaction of various factors and economic entities.In traditional research,the measurement and expression of the global value chain is based on the existing input-output table structure.However,the current economic globalization is facing major challenges,and policy shocks are reconstructing the network of global division and carbon emission.How to judge and identify the future restructuring of global value chains and carbon emissions lacks effective tools.Based on this,this paper attempts to propose a consistent theoretical model framework,expand the limitations of the static cross-country input-output(ICIO)table,and construct a Global Value Chain-Carbon Emissions Computable General Equilibrium(GVC-E-CGE)model.On this basis,the existing ICIO table and carbon emission data are used to explore the historical evolution characteristics of global value chains and carbon emissions from a static perspective,and the GVC-E-CGE model is used to assess the reconstruction impact of representative trade policies and climate policies on global value chains and carbon emissions from a dynamic perspective.Specifically,starting from the general equilibrium framework,this paper constructs a general equilibrium model group of the ICIO model and the GVC-E-CGE model on the basis of analyzing the coupling relationship between the division of global value chain and carbon emissions from static and dynamic perspectives.In terms of ICIO model innovation,a method for measuring carbon emissions and carbon transfer in global value chains under the framework of the ICIO model is proposed.In terms of GVC-E-CGE model innovation,the energy emission modeling technology of the GTAP-E model and the GVC modeling idea of the GVC-CGE model are integrated,and the global value chain and carbon emissions are embedded in the CGE model for the first time.More importantly,the plug-in module is constructed,which realizes the dynamic update of ICIO table,and the assessment of the reconstruction impact of global value chain and carbon emission;and the GVC-E-CGE model database,such as tariff and non-tariff cost data that distinguishes different economic entities,is constructed.In terms of the evolution of global value chains and carbon emissions,based on the measurement framework of carbon emissions embodied in global value chain under the ICIO model,combined with the social network analysis method,this paper explores the evolution characteristics of carbon emissions transfer embodied in different global value chain trade from the dimensions of "quantity" and"relationship" for the first time.The main research conclusions are as follows.The nodes with control advantages in carbon transfer network in traditional trade are mainly developed countries,and the control power of developing countries is gradually highlighted in the carbon network of simple and complex GVC.The carbon transferred-out network is more concentrated than the carbon transferred-in network,and this structural imbalance between the production side and the consumption side is more pronounced in the carbon network of simple and complex GVC trade,however,in the evolution of these two types of networks,the central potential of the out(in)degree has declined.The carbon emission demand network embodied in traditional trade presents the characteristics of Germany and the United States as a dual hub,and the absolute demand hub status of the United States is becoming more and more prominent in the carbon emission embodied in GVC trade network.China is the center of global carbon transfer embodied in traditional trade,and Germany,the United States and Russia are important regional supply centers.China’s carbon supply hub position has evolved into an absolute core in the complex carbon emission network of GVC trade.In terms of the reconstruction assessment of global value chains and carbon emissions driven by trade policies,taking regional trade agreements(RTA)as an example,based on the GVC-E-CGE model,it is the first time to comprehensively evaluate RCEP,CPTPP and US-EU-Japan RTA from the perspective of reconstruction of global value chain and carbon emissions.And it also considers the differences in import tariffs and non-tariff barriers of different economic entities that have been ignored by existing research.The main research conclusions are as follows.CPTPP has a more significant effect on economic upgrading and trade promotion of member countries than RCEP.RTAs without the participation of China and the United States have limited trade and economic promotion effects,but the benefits of the two countries are also limited.From the perspective of vertical reconstruction,RTAs tend to shorten the GVC chain of member countries.From the perspective of horizontal reconstruction,RTAs promote the regional reconstruction of GVC,and the impact on the regional production division of production factors is greater than that on the division of regional final product GVC.RCEP and CPTPP further enhance the central position of China and Japan in the regional value chain of East Asia.The role of the US-EU-Japan RTA in promoting the regional value chain is not significant.RTAs have promoted carbon transfer among member countries.The increase in carbon embodied in imports has led to an increase in carbon emissions in most economies.However,for China and some resource-based member countries,the overall carbon emissions and carbon intensity decrease due to the decrease in pure domestic carbon emissions.In terms of the reconstruction assessment of global value chains and carbon emissions driven by climate policy,based on the GVC-E-CGE model,this paper is the first to evaluate the implementation of carbon border adjustment mechanisms in the EU and other developed countries from the reconstruction perspective of global value chain trade and carbon emissions transfer,and quantitatively assess the policy effects of China’s response policies.The study found that CBAM had limited impact on global emissions reductions.The main research conclusions are as follows.CBAM has little effect on mitigating emissions.The implementation of CBAM in the EU has caused economic and welfare losses.Other developed countries such as the United States,Japan and the United Kingdom have benefited from it.However,when these countries also impose carbon border regulation tax,GDP and welfare are damaged.CBAM has affected the GVC trade,resulting in a decline in the participation of GVC in the world and the expropriated countries,a slight decline in the value-added in final products and GVC trade,and a slight increase in the value-added in export of final products of developing economies such as China.However,the value-added in GVC trade,especially complex GVC trade,has been negatively affected,and the negative impact is more significant with the expansion of covered sectors and expropriated countries.The change of trade mode has affected the carbon transfer.The global carbon transfer to the EU has decreased,and the carbon transfer from China,India and other major emitters to the United States and Asia has increased.The change of GVC trade is more significant than that of traditional trade.For China,compared with the carbon tax policy,the joint carbon market with the EU has less impact on China’s economy and welfare.However,under the carbon tax policy,China’s carbon emissions have decreased significantly.Although the domestic cycle has decreased,exports have increased.Value added in traditional trade and simple GVC and GVC participation have increased in ICT and other manufacturing sectors. |
