Research On Embodied Pollution Transfer And Profit And Loss Deviation Between Provinces In China

Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has made remarkable achievements,but the problems of unbalanced and insufficient regional economic development have become increasingly prominent.In order to narrow the gap in regional development,China has successively implemented regional development strategies such as the great development of the west,the rise of the central region,and the revitalization of the northeast,accelerating the in-depth development of the trade cycle between regions.Due to the regional differences in resource endowment,economic development stage,industrial structure and environmental regulation,the reverse flow of "value flow" and "pollution flow" between regions has led to the profit and loss deviation phenomenon of "economic gains are outside and ecological damage is retained" in underdeveloped regions.In order to further explore the characteristics and impact mechanism of the relationship between implicit pollution transfer and profit loss deviation in regional trade,and to further explain the reasons for China’s unbalanced and inadequate economic and social development from the economic level to the environmental level,the research focusing on the characteristics of the relationship between implicit pollution transfer and profit loss deviation has become a hot issue of concern.Based on this,this study follows the basic research idea of "sorting out research problems-characterizing objective phenomena-identifying typical facts-revealing the cause of formation".Based on five inter regional input-output tables from 2007 to 2017,three categories of five pollutants,including water pollution(COD,ammonia nitrogen),air pollution(SO2,smoke and dust),and solid waste pollution,are selected as the research objects,and the relationship between the inter regional implied pollution transfer and the profit and loss deviation is discussed.Firstly,based on the interregional input-output table and the pollution emission data of different industries,we measure and analyze the actual characteristics of the implied pollution transfer of trade;Secondly,the direction and scale characteristics of inter regional pollution transfer and value-added transfer are compared and analyzed,and then the phenomenon of inter regional profit and loss deviation is revealed;The inter regional profit and loss deviation index is constructed to reveal and characterize the spatial and regional characteristics of profit and loss deviation;Thirdly,the structural decomposition method is used to deconstruct the influencing factors of the implicit pollution transfer;Based on the spatial interaction model,this paper empirically tests the impact mechanism of implied pollution transfer on profit and loss deviation.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)This paper constructs the theoretical analysis framework of trade implied pollution transfer and profit loss deviation,and studies and puts forward the impact mechanism of implied pollution transfer on profit loss deviation.On the basis of the definition of the core concepts of trade implied pollution transfer and profit and loss deviation and the theoretical analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve theory,the unequal exchange theory and the ecological unequal exchange theory,the theoretical analysis framework of the interregional profit and loss deviation caused by the reverse flow of "value flow" and "pollution flow" in the current relatively solidified trade pattern was studied and constructed,It also puts forward the relationship mechanism and research hypothesis of the positive impact of implicit pollution transfer on profit and loss deviation,brings the influencing factors of the source and sink of profit and loss deviation and the multi-dimensional distance in trade into the research framework,and constructs the relationship model of the impact of implicit pollution transfer on profit and loss deviation,which lays a theoretical foundation for this study.(2)Build a measurement model of trade implied pollution transfer,and clarify the space-time evolution characteristics of trade implied pollution transfer.Based on the MRIO model,a measurement model of trade implied pollution transfer is constructed to clarify the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the scale and direction of trade implied pollution transfer.The research found that:(1)From2007 to 2017,the scale of implied pollution discharge of water,air and solid waste showed a general trend of "rising first and then falling",reflecting the remarkable achievements in environmental governance in all provinces of the country.The consumption side pollution emissions of the eastern coastal developed provinces are far greater than the production side emissions,and the pollution transfer is higher than the pollution transfer out,which shows that the overall pattern of China’s inter provincial implicit pollution transfer is that the economically developed provinces and regions have carried out the implicit pollution transfer to the resource-based provinces and regions through the intermediate and final products of the consumer resource-based regions.(2)The latent pollution transfer direction of different pollutants is characterized by heterogeneity.First,the direction of net transfer of implied water pollution has the characteristics of transferring from the eastern coast to the central and western regions,while the path of transferring from the southwest to the central and northwest regions is also highlighted.Further,the net transfer of implied COD pollution shifted to the southwest and northwest,and the net transfer of implied ammonia nitrogen pollution reversed from the east coast to the middle to the northwest to the east and middle.Second,the main transfer direction of implied air pollution is from the east coast to the central region,from the southeast coast to the southwest,and from the east coast to the northwest.Furthermore,the implied SO2 pollution transfer and the implied smoke and dust generally show the characteristics of east-middle-southwest cascade transfer;However,the implied SO2 pollution transfer highlights the internal transfer of the eastern region and the reverse transfer of the central region to the northern coast;The transfer of hidden smoke and dust from the southwest to the central region and the reverse transfer from the southwest to the northeast are highlighted.Third,the transfer of implied solid waste pollution is mainly from the eastern coastal provinces to the central and western regions.(3)Develop inter provincial trade profit and loss deviation measurement tools,and characterize the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of profit and loss deviation.Based on the MRIO model,this paper constructs a measurement model of trade implied added value and depicts the pattern of economic benefits of inter provincial trade;The overall pattern of inter regional implied value-added transfer and implied pollution transfer is contrasted and analyzed with the four quadrant diagram.The trade solidification pattern formed by inter regional implied value-added transfer and implied pollution transfer is found,and the causes of inter regional profit and loss deviation caused by the reverse flow of "value flow" and "pollution flow" are revealed;Based on the implied pollution transfer and implied value added transfer,the inter regional profit and loss deviation measurement tool is developed to further characterize the spatio-temporal evolution of profit and loss deviation.The research finds that:(1)The transfer of implied added value among regions in China is unbalanced.The provinces with greater economic benefits are mainly Beijing Tianjin Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,Shandong,Hunan,Guangdong and other regions;The regions with relatively low income are concentrated in central regions such as Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Henan,Northeast regions such as Jilin,and western provinces such as Shaanxi;64.40% of the net transfer of implied added value was transferred to Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Shandong,Jiangsu and other economically developed provinces and regions,revealing the solidified pattern of economic trade in the eastern coastal region under the division of labor in inter provincial trade.(2)Combined with the four quadrant diagram,the paper analyzes the overall pattern of inter regional implied value added transfer and implied pollution transfer,further identifies the fact that "value flow" and "pollution flow" go against each other,and reveals the causes of the deviation between inter regional economic benefits and pollution transfer gains and losses;(3)Measurement of inter provincial profit and loss deviation index characterizes the heterogeneity of profit and loss deviation of different pollutants.The results show that: first,Shandong and Tianjin have the highest deviation index of hidden water pollution,and the high profit and loss deviation relationship of hidden water pollution between regions occurs within the central region,between the southeast coast and the central region,and between the southwest region and the central region;Secondly,Guangdong and Guangxi have the highest deviation index of implied air pollution profit and loss,which is 2.598;The high profit and loss deviation relationship of inter regional implied air pollution mainly occurs in the interior of the central region,the eastern coast,the northwest region,between the southwest region and the central region,and between the eastern coast and the northwest region;Third,among the implied solid waste profit and loss deviation relationships,Tianjin and Zhejiang had the highest deviation index,3.473;The high profit and loss deviation relationship of inter regional implied solid waste pollution mainly occurs between the central regions,Beijing Tianjin region,northeast region,and northern coastal and central regions.It shows the imbalance,echelon and complexity of P&L deviation.(4)Based on MRIO-SDA model,this paper deconstructs the influencing factors of implicit pollution transfer in inter provincial trade.Based on the MRIO-SDA model,this paper deconstructs the influencing factors and their contributions of the changes in the total amount of implicit pollution in inter provincial trade and the transfer of implicit pollution in inter provincial trade from the three dimensions of scale,structure and technology,as well as the six influencing factors of pollution emission intensity effect,industrial linkage structure effect,demand industry structure effect,demand category structure effect,population size effect and economic scale effect.The results show that:(1)The influencing factors of the total amount change and transfer change of implicit pollution emissions in inter provincial trade are similar.From 2007 to 2017,demand scale factor and population size were the main driving factors for the increase of total implicit pollution emissions,and pollution emission intensity and industrial correlation effect were the main factors affecting emission reduction.However,from 2012 to 2017,the emission reduction effect of pollution intensity effect was smaller than that of industrial correlation;Other factors contribute less.(2)The decomposition results at the regional level show that the reduction of pollution transfer in economically developed provinces and regions is mainly affected by the pollution intensity effect,because economically developed provinces and regions often invest more in emission reduction technologies in the face of strict environmental regulations;However,the economic scale effect plays a more important role in driving the resource-based provinces in the northeast,central and western regions;The impact of industrial linkage effect on each province is different,but it often plays a role in reducing emissions in economically developed provinces such as Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,which indirectly reflects that inter regional industrial linkage helps to achieve emission reduction through factor flow and reasonable allocation of factors to a certain extent.The deconstruction analysis of the influencing factors of the implicit pollution transfer in inter provincial trade provides a feasible solution for achieving coordinated emission reduction and optimizing emission reduction policies among regions.(5)Build an impact model of implied pollution transfer on profit and loss deviation,and empirically test the impact mechanism of the relationship between the two.Based on the theoretical analysis of implied pollution transfer and profit and loss deviation,combined with the data characteristics of profit and loss deviation relationship,the spatial interaction model is introduced to empirically test the impact of implied pollution profit and loss deviation on profit and loss deviation.The results show that:(1)implied water pollution transfer,implied air pollution transfer,and implied solid waste pollution transfer are significantly positively correlated with profit and loss deviation,indicating that implied pollution transfer will aggravate the deviation of profit and loss,and the results are stable.(2)The influencing factors of profit and loss bias in source and sink regions are characterized by heterogeneity.Among the influencing factors of the source region,resource endowment,industrial structure,environmental regulation and inter regional profit and loss deviation are significantly negatively correlated,indicating that relying on resource advantages,industrial structure upgrading,effective environmental regulation,etc.can significantly reduce the degree of profit and loss deviation of the source region.The degree of opening to the outside world,government corruption and other factors have a significant negative correlation with the profit and loss deviation of the foreign exchange region,which restrains the profit and loss deviation of the foreign exchange region.It reflects that under the situation that the existing trade solidification pattern cannot block the transfer of hidden pollution under the characteristics of the current economic development stage in China,it has a feasible basis to optimize the heterogeneous influencing factors through the source and sink regions respectively,and to reduce the negative impact of profit and loss deviation in coordination.(3)The distance factor in domestic trade promotes the deviation of profit and loss.With the transfer of trade implied pollution,how to "shorten" the multi-dimensional distance through industrial transfer and industrial agglomeration development to reduce its impact on profit and loss deviation.