| The implementation of the carbon peak carbon neutral strategy will not only reshape China’s economic structure,industrial structure and energy structure,but also have a significant and far-reaching impact on the development of China’s renewable energy industry.At present.the development of China’s renewable energy industry,on the one hand,relying on the strong support of policy has achieved rapid development;On the other hand.the construction of the market system related to the development of the renewable energy industry is also continuing to advance.Compared with the technological innovation and technological diffusion of market-oriented products or services,the diffusion of renewable energy technology depends not only on the role of effective market mechanisms and the support of relevant policy systems,but also on the decision-making behavior of adopters.As the micro foundation of technology diffusion,the decision-making behavior of adopters not only provides micro support for technology diffusion,but also determines the depth and breadth of technology diffusion from the macro level.Based on the above considerations,this thesis studies the decision-making behavior of adopters of renewable energy technology diffusion based on relevant theories and methods such as technology diffusion theory,behavioral decision theory and complex system theory,with a view to scientifically explaining the mechanism of renewable energy technology diffusion as well as the decision-making mechanism and decision-making behavior of adopters from the theoretical level.The influence of the adopter’s decision-making behavior on the diffusion of renewable energy technology is analyzed scientifically from the method level.The research work and main achievements of this thesis are as follows:(1)Identification of factors affecting the decision-making behavior of adopters of renewable energy technology diffusion.Firstly,based on the connotation and particularity of renewable energy technology diffusion,the diffusion mechanism of renewable energy technology is explained.Secondly,in order to comprehensively identify the factors affecting the decision-making behavior of the adopters of renewable energy technology diffusion.the interview content was scientifically designed based on relevant literature research and expert consultation,and the original data for the identification of the factors affecting the decision-making behavior of the adopters of renewable energy technology diffusion were collected through semi-structured interviews.Then,the qualitative analysis method of grounded theory was used to encode the interview data.Through material sorting,viewpoint extraction and theoretical saturation test,the influencing factor model of the decision-making behavior of the adopters of renewable energy technology diffusion was obtained.Finally,the key factors identified are summarized into four categories:external environmental factors,information factors,subject factors and economic factors.The results show that:①Economic factors are related to adoption cost and adoption income,which directly determine the profit return of adopters adopting renewable energy technology,and are the fundamental motivation of adopters’ decision-making behavior;②The market factors and policy factors in the external environmental factors affect the adopter’s decision-making behavior mainly by affecting the adopter’s adoption income;③Social factors in external environmental factors promote adopters to imitate group decision-making behavior by strengthening their identity of group attributes;④Information factors and subjective factors have important and direct influence on adopters’decision-making,and influence adopters’ decision-making behavior choice tendency to some extent.(2)Research on the decision-making behavior of adopters of renewable energy technology diffusion.Based on the identification of key influencing factors,the decisionmaking mechanism and decision-making behavior of the adopters of renewable energy technology diffusion are further studied.Firstly,based on the technology diffusion theory,the decision-making mechanism of the adopters of renewable energy technology diffusion is deconstructed.and the decision-making principle and process of the adopters are summarized.Secondly,the decision-making behavior of the adopters is represented by the willingness to adopt,and the decision-making behavior model of the adopters of renewable energy technology diffusion is constructed by using system dynamics.Then,based on the simulation of the decision-making behavior of the adopters of renewable energy technology diffusion,the influence of key factors on the decision-making behavior of the adopters is further simulated.The results show that:①Under the influence of multiple factors such as market,policy,society,information and technology,as time goes by and renewable energy technology spreads,the adopters’ willingness to adopt renewable energy technology continues to increase;②Technological progress has the most significant impact on adopters’ decision-making behavior.When the technological progress coefficient increases by 10%,the adopters’ willingness to adopt at the end of the simulation period will increase by 40.81%,followed by information quality and electricity price,and the subsidy level and adopters’ preference have relatively little impact.③The promoting effects of market factors,policy factors.information factors and technology factors on adopters’ adoption intentions increased with the increase of the corresponding parameter values;④The promotion effect of market factors on the adoption willingness of adopters is significantly greater than that of policy factors,indicating that the transformation from policy-driven to market-driven development of China’s renewable energy industry has determined initial results,and the market mechanism has begun to have the ability to gradually replace the policy mechanism.(3)Research on the evolution of adopters’ decision-making behavior of renewable energy technology diffusion.Firstly,using evolutionary game theory as the research paradigm,the evolution mechanism of the decision-making behavior of the adopters of renewable energy technology diffusion is sorted out,and the evolution conditions and process of the adopters’ decision-making behavior are clarified.Secondly,an evolutionary game model of the decision-making behavior of the adopters of renewable energy technology diffusion is constructed,and the boundary conditions for the evolution of the decision-making behavior of the adopters to reach a stable equilibrium strategy are discussed through the analysis of the replicator dynamic equation,and the adoption critical value of renewable energy technology diffusion is deconstructed.Then,based on the simulation and sensitivity analysis,the evolution process and path of the decision-making behavior of the adopters of renewable energy technology diffusion are described,and the key factors affecting the dynamic evolution of the decision-making behavior of the adopters are clarified.The results show that:①The adoption critical value of renewable energy technology diffusion is determined by factors such as electricity price,carbon price.subsidy,and the cost of traditional power generation technology;②For any two adopters,as long as the adoption cost of one party is less than the adoption critical value,renewable energy technology can achieve diffusion,but when the adoption cost of both parties is greater than the adoption critical value,renewable energy technology diffusion will face the risk of failure;③According to the calculation of this study,the critical value of renewable energy technology diffusion adoption in China is about 0.4426 yuan/kWh;Higher electricity prices,carbon prices,and subsidies help accelerate the evolution of adopters’ decision-making behavior and reduce the risk of failure in the diffusion of renewable energy technologies.(4)Research on the influence of adopter’ decision-making behavior evolution on the diffusion effect of renewable energy technology.Firstly,the influence mechanism of the evolution of the adopter’s decision-making behavior on the diffusion effect of renewable energy technology is analyzed,and the interaction relationship between the evolution of the adopter’s decision-making behavior and the diffusion effect of technology is clarified.Secondly,based on complex network and computational experiment method,a computational experimental model of the influence of adopter’s decision-making behavior evolution on renewable energy technology diffusion is constructed.Then.a multi-scenario calculation experiment scheme was designed to calculate the influence of the evolution of the adopter’s decision-making behavior on the diffusion effect of renewable energy technology under different situations.From the perspective of the evolution of the adopter’s decision-making behavior,the key factors affecting the diffusion effect of renewable energy technology were clarified.The results show that:①The rate of evolution of adopters’ decision-making behavior determines the diffusion effect of renewable energy technologies.With the evolution of adopters’ decision-making behavior.the number of adopters increases S-shaped with the diffusion of renewable energy technologies;②As the key factors affecting the adopters’ decision-making behavior and its evolution,electricity price,carbon price and subsidies also have a significant role in promoting the effect of renewable energy technology diffusion.Higher electricity price,carbon trading price and government subsidy can increase the benefits of renewable energy technology adoption,accelerate the evolution of adopters’ decision-making behavior,and improve the effect of renewable energy technology diffusion;③The intensity of network information exchange and the ratio of initial adopters significantly promoted the diffusion effect of renewable energy technology in the evolution of adopters’ decision-making behavior.The former promoted the evolution of adopters’ decision-making behavior by speeding up information exchange,while the latter promoted the evolution of adopters’ decisionmaking behavior by strengthening the group identity of adopters,and improved the diffusion effect of renewable energy technology.④The existence of noise factors such as policy uncertainty,negative information about neighbors and income uncertainty leads to the uncertainty of the evolution of the adopter’s decision-making behavior,which will affect the learning and imitation behavior of the adopter of the diffusion of renewable energy technology,reduce the willingness of the adopter to adopt,and then have a negative impact on the diffusion effect of renewable energy technology.The main innovation points of this thesis are as follows:First,based on the rooted theory analysis method,the factors affecting the decision-making behavior of the adopters of renewable energy technology diffusion are identified;Secondly,based on the system dynamics model,the decision-making behavior model of the adopters of renewable energy technology diffusion is constructed,and the decision-making mechanism of the adopters of renewable energy technology diffusion is analyzed.Thirdly,from the perspective of behavioral evolution,an evolutionary game model of the adopters’ decision-making behavior of renewable energy technology diffusion is constructed,and the evolutionary path of the adopters’ decision-making behavior is described.Fourthly,based on complex network theory and computational experiment method,the influence of adopter’s decisionmaking behavior on the diffusion effect of renewable energy technology is studied. |
