Estimate Of Intensity And Precipitation Of Tropical Cyclones In Western North Pacific During 140 Years

As one of the most important kinds of natural disaster,tropical cyclones(TCs)caused huge of losses in coastal area around the world.TCs disaster was composed by three major hazards,gale,extreme precipitation and storm surge.Meanwhile,TCs’ characteristics keep changing with climate change and global warming,but researchers could not build the relationship between them because there are few observed data about TCs in history.Therefore,a huge challenge in TCs’ long-term evaluation,is longterm data collection.In this research,multi-resources data were employed to analyzing the TCs’ and TCP’s characteristics under two different time series,one is from 1884 to1950,another is from 1951 to 2019.The results show that:1.Based on the multi-sources data,and the record of TC losses,I reconstructed and validated the intensity and best track of TCs that impact on China from 1884 to1950,meanwhile,I employed semivariogram method to calculate the spitial extent of TCP.I found that lots of TCs cases were moved to the south,southeast,and east area and few cases that impact on the north area.Meanwhile,the median of TCP spitial extent is 600 km,whereas the maximum value of TCP spitial extent is 998 km.2.Based on the data from observed stations in China and Joint Warning Typhoon Center,I picked up the intensity and best track of TCs that impact on China from 1951 to 2019,also,with semivariogram method,I calculated the spitial extent of TCP.I found that lots of TCs cases were moved to the south,southeast,and east area,compare with cases before 1951,more cases that impact on the north area,and the intensity of TCs are higher.Meanwhile,the intensity of TCs can impact on the intensity and spitial extent of TCP,the maximum TCP intensity(32mm/d)and spitial extent(average 480km)would occur when a super typhoon landfall in China and weaken to tropical storm.3.I put the results of TCs from 1884 to 1950 and from 1951 to 2019 together and analyzed the parameters of TCs during 140 year,and found that the count,the intensity and spitial extent of TCs are all increasing.Meanwhile,for the median of TCP spitial extent,it shows an increasing trend after a decreasing trend.However,the changing in each year is big and the trend is not significant.4.I picked up some extreme TCs cases that impact on Shanghai from 1884 to 2019,to analyzed the intensity of hazards.The results shows that the most harmful TCs always have three kind of high intensity hazards: gale,heavy rain and storm surge.And because of climate change,the best track and intensity of TCs will change,meanwhile,the ability of defend TCs in Shanghai is increasing,so the intensity of extreme TC hazards after 1951 is increasing,but the deathes is heavily decreasing.This research create a new historical TCs dataset based on digging historical data,and build a combination between geo-statistics and atmospheric science.Compare with the qualitative analysis based on historical disaster records,this research provide a new freamwork of quantitative analysis of historical TCs research.