Research On System Drum Buffer Management Method Based On Double Risk Sharing

Today’s project management techniques have become increasingly mature,and various project management software provide more reliable analysis tools for project management,yet even so,project delays and cost overruns are still common.Based on this,a project management method that takes into account the project resource constraints and behavioral characteristics of decision makers-Critical Chain Project Management(CCPM)is proposed.Buffering is the core concept of CCPM,which can effectively avoid the student syndrome of project members by extracting the safe time of each activity and concentrating it at the end of the chain to form a buffer and Parkinson’s law,as well as the wasted safety time caused by factors such as multitasking,resource constraints,and dependencies between jobs.Setting corresponding buffers in the project system and monitoring them can absorb various uncertainties in the project execution process,shorten the project duration while ensuring the probability of project completion,and realize the risk sharing of the project as a whole.This paper combines project risk management theory,schedule risk management theory and sequence game theory,and uses project schedule risk analysis method,restriction-driven scheduling technique,gray neural network method and system simulation to conduct a systematic and in-depth research on the systematic drum buffer management method based on double risk sharing,and the main innovative work is as follows.(1)A sequential game based project buffer size determination method is proposed.In view of the deficiency that the existing project buffer determination method does not fully consider the intrinsic connection between the base duration and buffer size,this study uses the idea of reverse induction in sequence game to analyze the intrinsic connection and dynamic equilibrium between activity base duration and safety time,gives full play to the "first mover advantage" of project manager,considers the reaction function of project.The study uses the idea of backward induction in sequential game to analyze the inherent linkage and dynamic equilibrium between activity base duration and safety time.The effectiveness and practicality of the proposed method are verified by arithmetic case analysis.(2)A system drum buffer determination method considering the system risk sharing effect and resource buffer warning time window is proposed.To address the student syndrome of project managers and the problem that the drum buffer setting extends the critical chain of each sub-project,this study analyzes the dual risk sharing effect of multi-project system from the system perspective,quantitatively extracts some sub-project buffers and concentrates them at the system level to overcome the student syndrome of sub-project managers,and builds a quantitative resource buffer time window setting model for drum activities based on the restriction-driven scheduling technique on this basis,analyzing the relevant influencing factors to set up the system-level drum buffer.The results show that the proposed method can guarantee a higher on-time completion rate of the multiproject system under different risk levels,and also performs better in terms of average project buffer consumption rate,average delay percentage of drum activities,system duration and cost,enhancing the overall risk resistance of the multi-project system.(3)A dynamic triggering mechanism for drum links based on differential configuration of buffer accounts is constructed.To address the shortcomings of the existing buffer monitoring trigger that does not fully consider the duration characteristics of different activities to differentially trigger the buffer area,this study analyzes the risk stratification idea embodied in the buffer area division from the perspective of buffer accounts,considers the system drum slowdown as a temporal asset,and optimally allocates the total amount of monitoring as an asset among multiple buffer accounts.Firstly,the number of trigger points for different activities is differentiated according to the characteristics of drum link activity duration,that is,the number of trigger interval regions for activities is set differently,and then the optimal allocation decision model of account amount is constructed based on behavioral portfolio theory with the objective of maximizing the total amount of account consumable in the process of buffering dynamic risk absorption to determine the drum buffer trigger monitoring mechanism under the buffer account configuration.Simulation experiments show that the method in this paper is conducive to maximizing the overall risk absorption utility of the buffer and reducing the system monitoring cost while ensuring the system link duration and completion probability.(4)A drum buffer monitoring method based on the integration of activity importance and trend information is proposed.In response to the problems that the existing monitoring methods are not focused and the decision information is not comprehensive,this study introduces the activity importance information from the project schedule risk analysis to evaluate the importance magnitude of drum link activities and highlights the monitoring of key activities that fall into the yellow risk fuzzy zone.At the same time,this paper uses the combined gray neural network prediction method to obtain the subsequent trend information of the project system,and combines the current buffer consumption and subsequent trend information of the drum link to analyze and determine the size of the rush intensity that should be taken when monitoring the zone.By combining monitoring to highlight key activities and dynamic buffer monitoring with buffer trend prediction and control,a dynamically integrated and comprehensive drum buffer monitoring method is determined.Simulation experiments show the superiority of this paper’s method over traditional methods in terms of buffer monitoring frequency as well as system duration and cost.Based on the risk-sharing idea of buffer management,this study adopts a fully integrated theoretical analysis framework of "sub-project buffer determination system drum buffer determination--drum buffer monitoring trigger settingintegrated rolling drum buffer monitoring" based on the existing research and related theoretical methods of critical chain project buffer management."It further enriches the theory of critical chain project buffer management and provides theoretical guidance and management inspiration for enterprise managers to use critical chain project management methods to manage projects.