| One of the main goals of China's economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is to improve the endowment insurance system,promote the long-term balance of basic endowment insurance funds,and raise the participation rate of basic endowment insurance to 95%.As an important part of the basic endowment insurance system,the appearance of the basic endowment insurance system for urban and rural residents not only fills up the last blank of the endowment insurance system,but also provides system guarantee for the realization of common prosperity.At present,China's endowment insurance system includes urban workers endowment insurance system and urban and rural residents basic endowment insurance system,the latter is the new rural social pension insurance system and urban residents social pension insurance system after the implementation of the combined collectively.By the end of November 2021,the number of participants in the basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents in China has exceeded 547 million,95%of which are rural residents,indicating that the main participants of the basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents are still rural residents.Therefore,mastering the implementation of the new rural social pension insurance system is helpful to understand the implementation of the system.This paper is based on 2010 to 2020 year of human resources and social security statistics bulletin of the career development of urban and rural residents in the implementation of the old-age insurance system and two research case,we find that there is a phenomenon of "high participation rate,low payment scale",and the choice of payment scale is relatively concentrated when rural residents decide to participate in the new rural social pension insurance system.If rural residents choose a low scale of payment,it not only means that they can receive less pension after they reach their age and the pension security level is low,which cannot meet the needs of the elderly,but also makes the pension income and expenditure imbalance under the background of increasing aging degree,thus affecting the sustainable development of the system.Therefore,this paper systematically analyzes and studies the participation behavior of rural residents in new rural social pension insurance scheme,that is,whether rural residents participate in new rural social pension insurance and the choice of payment scale of rural residents,to explore why rural residents' choice of payment scale is so consistent,and the reason why they prefer the lower payment scale.According to the life cycle hypothesis and overlapping generation model,this paper firstly divides the pension model into three types:one is the personal savings pension model,which is based on the typical life cycle hypothesis;The second is the model of raising children for old age,namely family intergenerational transfer,which is based on overlapping generation model;The third is the model of social old-age security,namely,social intergenerational transfer,which is based on overlapping generation model.Rural residents who have been used to raising children for their old age for thousands of years will have the problem of transforming the old-age security mode from raising children for their old age to socialized old-age security when facing such a new system.Secondly,it points out that there are four realities in China's rural areas:the concept of raising children and taking care of the old is difficult to change in the short term,the rural residents' living environment is fixed and their education level is limited,the urbanization rate is increasing year by year,and the income level of rural residents is relatively low and the income stability is poor,it is considered that the three conditions on which the life cycle hypothesis is based(complete rationality of individual,no uncertainty and no liquidity constraint)are difficult to be satisfied in the rural reality of China,leading to rural residents'participation behavior of new rural social pension insurance is often characterized by bounded rationality,and thus we make the following four basic judgment about rural residents' participation behavior:First,rural residents' participation behavior of new rural social pension insurance may be affected by conformity effect,which is embodied in "I will take part in others' participation,and I will pay what others pay";Second,rural residents' participation behavior of new rural social pension insurance may be affected by the urbanization rate.China is a typical urban-rural dual structure system,with the increase of urbanization rate,rural residents will have more opportunities to go out for employment and more information is available,and their pension concept may also be affected by the demonstration effect of urban residents relying on social pension insurance,which may affect their participation behavior.Third,income will affect rural residents' participation behavior of new rural social pension insurance.The higher the income,the more likely rural residents are to participate in new rural social pension insurance,and the more likely they are to choose a higher payment scale.Fourth,age will also have an impact on rural residents' participation behavior of new rural social pension insurance.Generally speaking,the older the age,the stronger the intention to participate in insurance,in order to ensure the life after old age,and more inclined to choose a higher payment scale.In addition,there are significant differences between urban and rural residents'pension concepts,so we can judge that even when urban and rural residents face the same pension system,their insurance participation behaviors may be different.According to whether rural residents participate in new rural social pension insurance is a binary choice variable,Probit model and Logit model are respectively established in the empirical analysis to study them.The choice of payment scale of rural residents is an ordered variable,Heckoprobit model is used to study it in order to overcome the problem of self-selection of samples.The results show that:(1)conformity effect has a positive and significant influence on whether rural residents participate in new rural social pension insurance and the choice of payment scale of insured rural residents.The higher the average insurance participation rate of the previous reference group is,the more inclined rural residents are to participate in insurance,the larger the mode of the previous payment of the reference group,the greater the probability of the insured to choose a higher payment scale,which shows that rural residents choose conformity in making those decisions,and the first basic judgment of this paper is verified.(2)The higher the urbanization rate is,the more likely rural residents are to choose a higher payment scale,the second basic judgment is ture.This may be because areas with a higher urbanization rate have more job opportunities for rural residents,and they expect higher future income.With more information available,they have a better understanding of new rural social pension insurance,and the idea that urban residents rely on socialized pension security model will have a demonstration effect on rural residents,which will make them change their concept of pension,all these increase the probability of rural residents choosing a higher payment scale.(3)Raising the threshold of payment has no significant impact on whether rural residents participate in new rural social pension insurance,but it will reduce the probability of rural residents choosing a higher payment scale.This paper argues that the fundamental reason for this negative incentive lies in the failure of the rural residents' pension mode to completely transform from the mode of raising children for old age to the mode of social pension security.Only when rural residents regard the new rural social pension insurance as the most important means to provide for the aged,they will have intrinsic motivation to raise payment scale and thus increasing the amount of personal account accumulation.(4)Compared with the low-income group,rural residents in the high-income group are more inclined to participate in new rural social pension insurance and choose a higher payment scale.This may be because the high-income group is more resistant to risk,while the low-income group is more prone to liquidity constraints,the third basic judgment is true.(5)The influence of age grouping variables on whether rural residents participate in new rural social pension insurance and the choice of payment scale is significantly positive.Compared with rural residents aged 16 to 30,residents aged 31 to 45 and 46 to 59 are more inclined to participate in new rural social pension insurance and have a higher probability of choosing a higher payment scale.This is consistent with our expectation.The older you are,the more willing you are to take part in new rural social pension insurance,the closer you are to the receiving age,the more willing you are to choose a higher payment scale,and pay more pension premiums to increase the amount accumulated in your personal account and improve the level of pension security,the fourth basic judgment is also true.(6)Through a comparative analysis of the implementation of basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents in rural and urban areas,this paper finds that urban and rural residents present two characteristics when facing the same endowment insurance system:first,the participation rate of rural residents in new rural social pension insurance is higher than that of urban residents in urban social pension insurance;second,the payment scale chosen by rural residents is lower than that of urban residents,which is explained from three perspectives:income difference,social welfare system difference and pension concept difference,further reveals the rural residents' "high participation rate,low payment scale" deep reasons.The main contributions of this paper are as follows:(1)Combining theoretical analysis with the reality of rural areas in China,this paper points out that rural residents' participation behavior of new rural social pension insurance is bounded rationality,and makes a basic judgment on the factors influencing rural residents'participation behavior of new rural social pension insurance.The influence of conformity effect and urbanization rate on rural residents' participation behavior of new rural social pension insurance is considered based on the provincial level.Previous studies on rural residents' participation behavior of new rural social pension insurance seldom considered the influence of others on their own behavior,and a few scholars considered the peer effects.However,the data obtained from the sample survey may have the problem that the observed values of the samples in the same group are too small.In addition,the research on the impact of urbanization rate on rural residents' participation behavior does not take into account that urban residents'pension concept may have a demonstration effect on rural residents,and thus may affect rural residents' insurance participation behavior.(2)The influence of policy adjustment on rural residents' participation behavior of new rural social pension insurance was investigated.Some scholars suggest that the purpose of encouraging rural residents to upgrade payment scale is to raise the minimum level of payment standard.Using CHFS2019 data,this paper studies the impact of policy changes in some provinces and cities that raised the threshold of payment in 2018 on rural residents' participation behavior of new rural social pension insurance.(3)In terms of the research content,urban residents' participation behavior of urban residence insurance is considered and compared with rural residents' participation behavior of new rural social pension insurance,which further explains the deep-seated reasons for the high participation rate and low payment scale of rural residents. |
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