Research On The Synergetic Development And Spillover Effect Of Inward And Outward Foreign Direct Investment In China

After more than 40 years of reform and opening up,China has continuously deepened its participation in the international division of labor,and gradually formed an open pattern of "bringing in" and "going out" at the same time.The introduction of foreign capital and foreign investment,as a link between domestic and international cycles,is an important way to aggregate domestic and foreign factor resources and form new industrial competitive advantages,and is an important part of promoting the two-way economic opening up between the East and the West.Since the 19th CPC National Congress,combined with the domestic and international situation,China has taken the two-wheel drive of inward and outward foreign investment as the key to expand the space for domestic economic development.The outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan puts forward the new requirements of "coordinated development of inward and outward foreign investment" for the first time,highlighting the development concept of attaching equal importance to both quantitative growth and quality improvement of inward and outward foreign investment.Thus,the research on the internal mechanism,spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and spillover effects of the coordinated development of inward and outward foreign investment has important theoretical and practical significance.This paper absorbs the viewpoints of the classical international direct investment theory,constructs the theoretical analysis framework of the coordinated development of two-way direct investment(Inward and Outward Foreign Direct Investment,two-way FDI)through the ideas of factor flow and coupling coordination,and incorporates the duality of the influence of synergy spillover effects,expanding the model given by Martin and Rogers,and describes the internal mechanism of the spillover effects of two-way FDI coordinated development.The results enrich the existing theoretical research context from a comprehensive research perspective.This paper also studies the coordinated development of China's two-way FDI and its spillover effects from the two dimensions of "quantity" and "quality",which provides theoretical support and empirical evidence for deepening the understanding of the international cycle enabling domestic industrial cycle.Based on the panel data of provincial administrative regions in China,the main research contents are carried out in three aspects:(1)This paper measures the collaborative development level of two-way FDI through the two dimensions of "quantity" and "quality",and deeply analyzes the spatio-temporal characteristics of the dynamic evolution of the quantity coordinated development of two-way FDI in China and the evolution track of regional differences in the quality coordinated development.(2)From the point of view of the duality of spillover effects,this paper improves the existing research and identification strategies of spillover effects and takes industrial technology sophistication as the proxy variable to capture technology spillover effects.The compound characteristics of quantity and quality synergistic spillover effects of two-way FDI are investigated by using Two-tier SFA model.Using the SLX model,this paper discusses the spatial influence of the synergistic spillover effect of two-way FDI in quantity and quality perspective,and analyzes the influence mechanism with the four dimensions: industrial factor intensification,industrial structure optimization,technological transformation capability and human capital accumulation.The main conclusions of this paper can be summarized as follows:First,from the perspective of quantitative development,China's two-way FDI collaborative development has experienced the transformation from integration-driven to scale-leading,but there are obvious regional development gradient differences,especially the central and the western regions are still in the running-in development stage and maladjustment inhibition stage of two-way FDI collaborative development respectively.The estimation of Kernel density shows that during the study period from 2003 to 2019,the quantitative synergy development gap of two-way FDI generally follows the dynamic evolution track of first expanding and then gradually converging,but it shows the dynamic evolution characteristics of multi-polarization in the eastern,the central and the western economic belts.Second,from the perspective of quality-oriented development,the quality level of China's two-way FDI collaborative development is still insufficient,there is a greater promotion potential,showing a spatio-temporal disequilibrium phenomenon of "high in the eastern and low in the western,strong in the south and weak in the north".The calculation results based on Dagum Gini coefficient show that during the investigation period from 2003 to 2019,the imbalance of two-way FDI quality coordinated development decreases year by year,but it still has the gradient characteristics of development imbalance in the western > the eastern > the central,and the imbalance in the eastern,the central and the western shows the fluctuation characteristics of "Ushaped" curve trajectory,"N-shaped" curve trajectory and "drop-rise" round trip,respectively.The results of further differential decomposition show that the imbalance of the quality coordinated development of two-way FDI mainly comes from the eastern-the central group and the eastern-the western group,and the regional gap between the central and the western groups is further enlarged.Third,the synergistic spillover effect of two-way FDI has the dual characteristics of both positive and negative effects.On the whole,the industrial technology upgrading effect in the two-way FDI collaborative spillover effect is greater than the industrial technology locking effect.However,this compound effect is significantly different in the two development types of "quantity" and "quality".On average,the net effect of two-way FDI quantity synergy spillover is 3.63%,while the net effect of two-way FDI quality synergy spillover is 5.22%.From the perspective of dynamic characteristics,the changing trend of the net effect of two-way FDI cooperative spillover shows an obvious "U-shaped" curve.Regional heterogeneity shows that two-way FDI synergistic spillover effect plays an obvious role in technological upgrading in the eastern,and the intensity of industrial technology locking effect is relatively higher in the central and the western,so the net effect has a gradient of the eastern >the western > the central,and this gradient is more obvious in the two-way FDI quality synergistic spillover effect.Fourth,the coordinated development of two-way FDI will have a spatial spillover effect of "promoting upgrading" on the industrial technology sophistication of the surrounding areas.This kind of spatial spillover effect is significant in both quantity and quality,but the quality synergistic spatial spillover effect of two-way FDI is more obvious.Among the above spatial spillover effects,the quantity synergy spillover effect of twoway FDI has obvious spatio-temporal heterogeneity,while the quality synergy spillover effect of two-way FDI is mainly manifested in regional heterogeneity.In addition,under the action of the flow of knowledge-based factors represented by R & D personnel,the spatial spillover effect of two-way FDI quality synergistic is more significant,forming the spatial spillover characteristics of "neighbor as partner" in the central and the eastern regions.Further analysis of the influence mechanism of spatial spillover shows that the intensification of industrial factors,the optimization of industrial structure and the accumulation of human capital are the three main regulatory mechanisms.Among them,under the influence of intensive industrial factors,the quality synergy spillover effect of two-way FDI shows the duality of spatial spillover of "promoting upgrading" and "restraining locking";while industrial structural optimization has a weak positive regulatory effect on the spatial spillover of two-way FDI quality coordination;human capital accumulation mechanism has a significant positive strengthening effect on the spatial spillover of two-way FDI quality coordination.The above influence mechanisms also have obvious regional heterogeneity: in the central and the eastern regions,the spatial spillover effects of two-way FDI quality synergy are transmitted through four influence mechanisms: the intensive evolution of industrial factors,the structural optimization of industrial linkages,the improvement of technological transformation capacity and the accumulation of human capital stock;in the west,the "promotion and upgrading" of bidirectional FDI quality synergy spillover effects is spread only through human capital accumulation.This paper expands the research perspective of two-way FDI collaborative development from the dimensions of "quantity" and "quality",and further applies new empirical methods to reveal the complex impact of two-way FDI synergy spillover effects.The relevant new conclusions obtained are not only an examination and reflection on the development strategy of "bringing in" and "going out",but also provide a reference research and judgment idea for clarifying the level of collaborative development of China's IFDI and OFDI.At the same time,it also provides decision-making reference for the reasonable construction of a new pattern of "double cycle" development.