| Along with the strong demand of state intervention in the macroeconomics under the background of the global economic crisis in the 1930s,as well as the reflection on the effectiveness of the national macroeconomic intervention in the 70s and 80s of the 20th century when "stagflation" is the main performance of the economic difficulties,under the framework of the Keynesian,new classical synthesis and new Keynesian theory,the evaluation of the fiscal policy effects closely related fiscal policy practice and the transmission mechanism of macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy,always play as the core content of macro fiscal policy theory research.It is worth noticing that fiscal multiplier,as a quantitative indicator to measure fiscal effect,is actually affected by many factors such as different stages of the economic cycle,different types of fiscal expenditure and coordination of fiscal and monetary policies,and thus the effect mechanism of fiscal policy is different.This also means that fiscal policy measures should be scientifically designed on the basis of a profound understanding of the macroeconomic effects and theoretical mechanisms of fiscal policies,such as different stages of the economic cycle,different types of fiscal expenditure and coordination of fiscal and monetary policies and other heterogeneous factors.Looking back on the practice of China’s fiscal policy since the 1990s,we find that it has been constantly making "discretionary decisions" along with the fluctuation of China’s macroeconomic situation,with obvious flexibility and pertinence.Following Deng Xiaoping’s "Southern Talks" in 1992,China has entered a new period of economic system reform and modernization construction.However,people are still affected by the one-sided pursuit of economic development speed under the economic background of the original planned economy system,and their enthusiasm for investment is high.Meanwhile,under the influence of loose fiscal and monetary policies,the average economic growth rate from 1992 to 1994 was 13.77%,and the inflation index soared from 5.36%in 1992 to 26.9%in 1994,indicating that the economic development was obviously overheated.In order to prevent the economy from getting out of control due to overheating,China has taken a series of tightening fiscal policy measures,such as appropriately reducing the scale of fiscal expenditure,issuing national bonds to guide the flow of funds,and strengthening the adjustment effect of consumption tax and value-added tax,thus successfully realizing the"soft landing" of China’s economic operation.Affected by the Asian financial crisis in 1998,in order to overcome the lack of domestic demand and prevent the resurgence of inflation,China adopted the policy of adjusting income distribution and issued long-term national bonds respectively to increase residents’ consumption and investment demand,and achieved a stable economic decline in 1999.After entering the new century,in order to prevent the hot trend of economic recovery,reduce the issuance of long-term construction national bonds and fiscal budget deficit and increase tax revenue,through optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditure,the relationship between investment and consumption was coordinated,inflation was stable and the structure of industrial products was reasonably adjusted.Since 2005,China began to implement a prudent fiscal policy.With strong export growth,China’s economy is running too fast,in order to prevent economic growth from becoming overheated,prices from rising structural evolution is obvious inflation,made in 2007,the central economic work conference,"double",to further control the fiscal deficit,optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure,to further advance reform and opening up and increasing government revenue.At the end of 2008,due to the US subprime mortgage crisis and the cycle adjustment after the continuous rapid growth of domestic economy since 1992,China’s economy was falling "off a cliff".In order to play the role of fiscal policy in stabilizing the economy,China began to implement active fiscal policy and put forward the"4 trillion" stimulus economic plan.In fiscal policy,we will issue national bonds and expand the deficit,invest in major infrastructure and livelihood projects,and appropriately reduce the tax burden to stimulate domestic demand.Proactive fiscal policy measures have been effective,with economic growth reaching 12.2 percent in the first quarter of 2010.However,since 201 1,new changes have taken place in China’s economic development.The economic growth rate and prices have continued to fall,and the economy has entered the"new normal".Stable growth has been placed in a more important position.To everyone’s surprise,the impact of COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 on China and even the global economy cannot be ignored.The impact of COVID-19 epidemic has led to severe economic recession.Therefore,China proposes that the proactive fiscal policy should be more proactive and proactive.Throughout the practical process of "discretionary choice" in China’s fiscal policy,it presents the following characteristics:First,the scope of fiscal policy switches frequently.Since the 1990s,the tone of fiscal policy has successively undergone the transformation from "loose" to "moderately tight" to "active","prudent" to "active".Second,every adjustment and control of fiscal policy is fierce and extensive.For example,in 2008,in order to reverse the downward trend of China’s economy due to the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States,the implementation of the 4 trillion fiscal stimulus plan.Third,the implementation effect of fiscal policy is not satisfactory,such as:the rapid expansion of government spending after the emergence of overcapacity and environmental pollution.Therefore,how to scientifically evaluate the macroeconomic effect of fiscal policy and then scientifically design fiscal policy has very important practical value.This article is based on the typical fact,depict different economic cycle,the different types of government spending and different combination of fiscal and monetary policy on the possible effect of fiscal policy effect,the nonlinear effect of fiscal policy in our country,and put forward attaches great importance to the economic cycle of fiscal policy effect,pay attention to regulation policy rules and discretion combination,the benign development of the financial regulation mode,attaches great importance to the role of consumer spending,strengthen synergies between fiscal and monetary policy and other policy recommendations.The research structure and content of this paper are as follows:The first chapter is the introduction,which mainly introduces the research background and significance of this paper from both theoretical and practical aspects.In terms of theory,the paper sorts out the fiscal policy propositions of various western schools of economics since the 1930s,and calibrates the functions and objectives of macro-control of fiscal policy.In the classical period,he advocated economic liberalism,and the fiscal policy should meet the balance of income and expenditure.It was not until the outbreak of the western financial crisis in the 1930s that Keynes proposed to play the role of government intervention in the economy that fiscal policy was paid attention to.However,the economy appeared "stagflation" in the 1970s,and many schools questioned the effectiveness of the government intervention measures proposed by Keynes.They were represented by monetarism,neoclassical macroeconomics and supply-side school,collectively referred to as "new economic liberalism".During the same period,the new Keynesian school,which supported Keynesianism and based on the defects of new economic liberalism and combined with microeconomic theory,proved again that fiscal policy was effective.From the point of view of this paper,the debate on the effectiveness of fiscal policy may prove that fiscal policy has nonlinear effects.In practice,with the economic situation showing a"loose-moderately tight-active-steady-active" calibre change of China’s fiscal policy,fiscal expenditure,tax and government debt and other fiscal policy tools have been frequently used.However,the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a useful tool for smoothing out economic fluctuations is worth exploring.Research based on the nonlinear effect of fiscal policy,on the one hand,able to respond to the different policies and theories of fiscal policy mechanism from different financial schools,on the other hand able to play an important role in guiding practices in cases such as the U.S.subprime crisis in 2008 and impact of new coronary pneumonia in 2020,the countries all over the world cope with policy’s actual effect as well as the design of fiscal policy of our country in the new normal economy.The second chapter introduces the theory of the nonlinear effect of fiscal policy and reviews the literature.First of all,the development context of each western school of economics is sorted out in detail,including the background,main views and policy propositions,basic assumptions and the transmission mechanism of the effectiveness of fiscal policies,to further clarify the controversial focus of each western school of economics.Then,the related literature is reviewed.It is worth noting that,based on the fact that China has a bias towards productive government expenditure and that different types of government expenditure have different regulatory effects on the economy,the heterogeneity of government expenditure is considered when discussing the effectiveness of fiscal policy.After the basic analysis of relevant literature,we find that fiscal policy does have nonlinear effect.The literature on nonlinear effects is reviewed from two aspects in this paper.On the one hand,it mainly focuses on the asymmetric effect of fiscal policy,and on the other hand,it is based on the perspective of institutional transformation of fiscal and monetary policy.On the basis of understanding domestic and foreign researches,this paper puts forward the emphases of the research on the nonlinear effect of fiscal policy.The third,fourth and fifth chapters are the empirical research part of this paper.The third chapter demonstrates the asymmetric effect in the nonlinear effect of China’s fiscal policy.First of all,the basic form of the STVAR model and estimation methods are introduced,and then contrast the economic cycle of linear model and state dependent STVAR model of total financial expenditure and the heterogeneity of the actual situation of the macroeconomic effect of fiscal expenditure of fiscal policy effect on output and inflation varies due to the economic cycle,and the productive government spending and consumer spending on output and inflation also differ.The fourth chapter studies the nonlinear effect of China’s fiscal policy from the perspective of system transformation.Firstly,it describes the macro-control mode of China’s fiscal policy,respectively introducing the fiscal policy of discretionary choice and following the rules of two ways of regulation,and puts forward the necessity of regulation.Then we use Markov system method to estimate our country’s productive fiscal expenditure rules and consumption fiscal expenditure rules,and combine our country’s fiscal expenditure,tax,government debt situation in recent years to analyze the empirical results.Since the implementation effect of fiscal policy is affected by monetary policy at the same time,we estimate the monetary policy rules of our country.Finally,the combination of fiscal policy and monetary policy is combined to analyze different institutional combinations of fiscal and monetary policies.The fifth chapter,on the basis of the fiscal and monetary authorities feedback model depicting Chinese fiscal and monetary authorities to act,and estimate the system transformation,the empirical identification combined fiscal and monetary policy in China between 1999 and 2018,on the basis of DSGE model is established to simulate the government spending increases the substitution effect and wealth effect caused by weighing and under different combination of fiscal and monetary policy effect of output and inflation relationship scale.Therefore,incorporating the transformation of the response mode of fiscal and monetary authorities and the expected factors into the interaction process of fiscal and monetary policies can not only accurately evaluate the fiscal and monetary effects,but also provide basic theoretical support for the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies.In order to have a more accurate understanding of the effect and channel of the effect of the fiscal policy,the quantitative research method of measuring the fiscal multiplier is used to consider the effect of the fiscal policy.The sixth chapter is the conclusion summary and policy suggestions.Combined with the empirical analysis of the articles as a result,based on this,advances attaches great importance to the economic cycle of fiscal policy effect,pay attention to regulation policy rules and discretion combination,the benign development of the financial regulation mode,attaches great importance to the role of consumer spending,and strengthen the fiscal and monetary policy stimulative fiscal policy in our country such as the synergies between the effectiveness of policy recommendations.The possible innovation points of this paper are as follows:First,the nonlinear characteristics and theoretical mechanism of fiscal policy effects under different economic cycle states,different government expenditure types and different fiscal and monetary policy combinations are reconsidered.At the same time,by calculating the specific value of fiscal multiplier in the non-linear state of fiscal policy effect,we can give quantitative answers to important questions such as how to implement fiscal policy more effectively,so as to provide reference for the design of fiscal policy.Second,in building a DSGE model,based on the characteristics of the facts in China,considering the heterogeneity of government spending,the asymmetric effects of fiscal policy and system of fiscal and monetary policy which has the characteristics of system transformation,bring the government consumer spending into the household sector and the government investment spending into producers sector,change the usual way of government that government sets fiscal and monetary policy rules with fixed estimate coefficients,to make it fit the actual situation of China better in depicting fiscal policy transmission channels and mechanisms. |
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