The Influence Of Information Outside Target Companies On Analysts' Behavior

As one of the main participants in the capital market,analysts play an important role of information intermediary in the capital market and are regarded as the communication link and information medium between investors and listed companies,the existence of whom weakens the information asymmetry relationship between investors and listed firms in the capital market,improves the information environment of the market,and enhances the efficiency of the capital market.Analysts play different information roles in the capital market:information discoverers,information interpreters and information disseminators,so correspondingly their work can be divided into three stages:tracking,site visiting and report writing.Analysts collect information about listed firms in the capital market and make decisions on whether or not to track them according to the information obtained.After analysts track the firms,they make predictions about the situation,which will be selectively reflected in the final research report.The information flowing in the capital market can be divided into two kinds according to its sources,one is the information disclosed by the listed firms itself,and the other is the information from the outside of the listed firms,which is disseminated by other social subjects.The latter covers information from media agency,SNS,stock bars and regulatory correspondence.Therefore,this paper puts the influence of the analysts' behavior in the information environment outside the target company,and explores and reveals the influence of the information outside the target company on the analysts' behavior at each stage.This paper is divided into nine parts to discuss the above problems.The first part is introduction.This part introduces the background,theoretical significance and practical value,research content and research methods,innovation and so on.The second part is literature review.This part reviews the relevant literature at home and abroad on the two core concepts—the analysts' behavior at each stage and the information outside the target company.This part summarizes the literature on the basis of sorting out the contents of the above two aspects in detail.The third part is the theoretical basis and analysis.It provides theoretical support for the study of information and analysts' behavior from outside the target company.On the basis of a detailed introduction to information asymmetry theory,signal transduction theory,modified Two-Step flow theory,bounded rationality theory,herding theory,and anti-silence spiral theory,this part analyzes the supporting role of the above theories,and builds a logical diagram.The fourth part focuses on the index calculation of the outside information channels of the target company.From the five models of logistic regression,GBDT algorithm,XGBoost algorithm,LightGBM algorithm and random forest algorithm,one goodness-of-fit value is obtained,and the best goodness-of-fit model is selected to calculate the index to measure the information channels outside the target company.The fifth part is an empirical study on the tracking behavior of analysts and information from outside the target company.This part empirically studies the influence of information channels outside the target company and detailed channels on analysts'tracking behavior,and a series of robustness tests provide more sufficient support for the research.The sixth part is an empirical study on the site visiting behavior of analysts and the information from outside the target company.An empirical study is conducted to investigate the influence of outside information channels and detailed channels on the site visiting behavior of analysts.The seventh part is an empirical study on the analysts' report writing behavior and the information from outside the target company.By analyzing the influence of information outside the target company on the reference frequency and forecast accuracy,this part explores the influence of information outside the target company on the analysts' report writing behavior.The eighth part explores the impact of information from outside the target company on the difference of analysts' behavior.On the basis of the empirical research in the previous three chapters,the author makes a grouping regression based on the possible combination of different behaviors to explore the influence of information from outside the target company on the behavior of the analyst at a certain stage,and the influence of the outside information channels and the detailed channels on the overall behavior of the analysts.The ninth part contains research conclusions,policy suggestions and research defects.First of all,the conclusions obtained through this study are summarized.Then,with the conclusions obtained in each chapter of this paper,the suggestions for the supervision on the target company's external information channels,investor guiaance and reguiation of analysts'behavior are put forward.The prospects for the future study are alse discussed.This paper focuses on the A share(?)2019.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper(?)examines(?)of information from outside the target company on analysts' tracking behavior,site visiting behavior and report writinging behavior of analyst reporting,and draws the following main conclusions.First,information from outside the target company has an impact on all stages of the analysts' behavior,and different information from outside the target company has different impact on the analysts' behavior.Compared with the information channels outside the target company,which generally have a positive impact on the behavior of analysts,analysts will avoid target companies with high levels of discussion and activity in the stock market.Secondly,through the research on the influence of information divergence on the behavior of analysts,we find that the attitude of the analysts towards the subjects behind the information is very sensitive,which affects the behavior of the analysts.Through the divergence of the information channels of news reports and the information channels of the stock bars,we can see that the attitude of the information channels has a great influence on the behavior of analysts,and most of the time it is a positive influence.Analysts are not inclined to react to firms with widely varying attitudes on the same information channels.Finally,through the research on the influence of information from outside the target company on the behavior of the analysts at each stage,we find that the analysts' tracking behavior is the most important behavior at each stage by grouping regression and studying the whole behavior.Analysts tend to behave in the same way as the group,which shows the herding effect.Through comparison,it is confirmed that the information outside the target company has a greater stimulating effect on the transition of the analysts' behavior from one stage to the next than on the whole behavior.The innovations that this paper hopes to achieve include:(1)Using machine learning to generate metrics of information coming from outside the target company.Firstly,the information channels outside the target company are filtered,and then the weight of each information channel is calculated by machine learning method to form an objective and scientific index to measure the information channel outside the target company.(2)Examining the path in which information from outside the target company influences the analysts' behavior.This paper examines the impact of information from outside the target company on the behavior of.analysts at each stage,and then examines the impact of detailed information channels on the behavior of analysts.(3)Integrating analysts' tracking behavior,site visiting behavior and report writing behavior into a unified research framework,and analyzing analysts' behavior coherently.(4)Supplementing the research on information content from information channels outside the target company.This article discusses the influence of information channels outside the target company on analysts' behavior,and studies whether the difference in analysts' behavior is affected by information from outside the target company.