Research On The Direct And Indirect Contributions Of ICT Services To Economic Growth

This paper summarizes domestic and foreign researches from the perspective of direct and indirect contributions of ICT to economic growth,and reviews relevant researches in combination with historical background.Based on the theoretical reserve,the direct contribution of ICT services to economic growth rate and quality is discussed within the framework of growth accounting,with GDP growth rate as the index of economic growth rate and Total Factor Productivity(TFP)growth rate as the index of economic growth quality.The reason for this is that the main characteristic of the process of economic growth is the change in the rate of growth and the degree to which the growth model is transformed.China's growth model is gradually shifting from an investment-driven model to a technology-driven model,which is a higher quality growth model than an investment-driven model.Therefore,this paper examines the direct contribution of ICT services to economic growth from the perspective of GDP growth rate and technology-driven growth model.However,growth accounting does not explain the underlying causes of growth;growth accounting and productivity measures only determine the relative importance of different sources of growth.The growth or fluctuation of the economic aggregate reflects the changes in the corresponding structure of the economic aggregate,and the growth accounting cannot well analyze the role played by ICT services in different fields and the potential reasons for promoting growth.Therefore,research is needed on the indirect contribution of ICT services to economic growth.In combination with the two characteristics of China's economic structure and the trend of industrial integration of ICT services,the indirect contribution of ICT services to economic growth is investigated from the perspectives of financial resource allocation and household consumption.The reasons for choosing these two aspects are as follows:(1)The characteristics of China's economic structure.Compared with other major economies in the world,there are two distinct features in China's economic structure.First,the financial sector has a large proportion of banks.Second,the proportion of consumption in GDP is seriously low.At the same time,these two characteristic areas have a decisive position in economic growth.In view of China's current economic development situation,on the one hand,financial resources are an important force for economic growth,and effective allocation of financial resources is an important guarantee for economic and social development.On the other hand,consumption is gradually playing the role of the main engine in driving economic growth.Household consumption.as the main body of final consumption.is particularly important for the stability of economic growth.(2)Due to the large scale of industrial development.Traditional financial.retail and technological enterprises have applied diversified business platforms on a large scale in the field of finance and retail.accumulated a large amount of traffic and technology,changed the service ecology in the field of finance and retail,and formed the digital financial industry and online retail industry with a large scale of development,and sustained growth trend is obvious.(3)Rapid integration and penetration between industries.From the characteristics of financial resource allocation and the change of the consumer sector.the implementation of the financial resources allocation is through financial intermediaries to realize financing.financial intermediation is the nature of information and credit intermediary just and efficient information processing mode corresponds to the ICT services,the ICT services sector and financial sector can deeply affect the financial resource allocation;Consumption is changing dramatically under the influence of science and technology.With the continuous expansion of the scale of network consumption and the large-scale commercial application of new technologies,consumption gradually presents the trend of network and intelligence.Based on the above research ideas.the research content of this paper is divided into six parts.The first chapter is the introduction,which introduces the background,significance.thinking and so on related to this research.The second chapter is to sort out the relevant research at home and abroad,by summarizing various research results and expounding relevant theoretical concepts,to provide the basis and argumentative support for the current research.The third chapter is the direct contribution of ICT services to economic growth.This paper describes the development trend of ICT service industry.ICT service industry not only makes great strides in its own industry,but also develops rapidly in the fields of cross-border integration and the development and evolution of underlying technologies.With the ever-expanding industrial scale.ICT service industry has realized the foundation of driving economic growth.Based on the description of the development scale of the industry,a growth accounting framework is constructed.Using China's economic data from 2003 to 201 8.the contribution of China's economic TFP,input of various factors and capital input of ICT industry to economic growth is calculated.The fourth chapter is the direct contribution of ICT services to the quality of economic growth.This paper expounds the new economic form dominated by the comprehensive application of ICT as an example of ICT service industry improving the quality of economic growth.Then,the contribution of ICT service industry TFP and ICT service industry to TFP of the whole economy are respectively calculated.The five chapter analyzes the indirect contribution of ICT services to economic growth from the perspective of optimizing the efficiency of financial resource allocation.This paper introduces the concept and connotation of financial resources and financial resources allocation efficiency,the historical evolution of allocation status,and its influence mechanism on economy.Then,based on the three-stage DEA model,this paper measures the efficiency of China's financial resource allocation,and uses Tobit model to empirically test the impact of ICT services on the efficiency of China's financial resource allocation.The six chapter analyzes the indirect contribution of ICT services to economic growth from the perspective of promoting household consumption.This paper discusses the change of ICT service industry to residents' consumption pattern and the theoretical mechanism of its influence.Combined with the capital stock of ICT service industry and other public data obtained in the previous study,the panel threshold model is used to measure the impact of ICT service industry on consumption of urban and rural residents in China.The seventh chapter summarizes and sorts out the research conclusions,and gives the corresponding policy recommendations and future research prospects.Through the above research,conclusions and opinions are drawn from the following six aspects:First,the contribution rate of capital input in ICT services to economic growth has gradually increased.The growth of capital stock of ICT service industry in China mainly occurred after 2013.With the rapid growth of ICT service investment and capital stock,the contribution of capital investment in ICT service industry to the economic growth rate shows an upward trend.Second,China's economic growth model is gradually shifting from one driven by factors to one driven by innovation.The contribution rate of capital input dropped from 78.62%in 2004 to 42.95%in 2018,indicating that the contribution rate of capital input has been continuously decreasing.From 2004 to 2008,the contribution of capital input and TFP to economic growth was 72.46%and 22.27%,respectively.From 2014 to 2018,the contribution of capital input and TFP to economic growth was 62.16%and 31.96%,respectively.The contribution rate of capital input decreased gradually,while the contribution rate of TFP increased gradually.In 2018,the contribution of TFP to economic growth reached 50.91%,while the contribution of capital investment to economic growth was only 42.95%.Third,ICT service industry has become an important industry to drive TFP growth of China's overall economy.During the whole accounting cycle,the average TFP growth rate of ICT service industry reached 3.63%,significantly higher than the 1.84%growth rate of China's overall economy.The average contribution of ICT services to China's overall economic TFP growth is 3.76%,while the average contribution of ICT services to GDP is only 2.51%.Fourth,there may be unreasonable or blind input structure in ICT service industry.In the context of large-scale capital and human resources investment,the TFP growth rate of ICT service industry has been continuously depressed in recent years,which often occurs when the investment structure is unreasonable or the investment is overheated.Fifth,China's financial resource allocation efficiency shows a U-shaped reversal,and there is a significant positive correlation between ICT services and financial resource allocation efficiency.Sixth,ICT service industry has a nonlinear effect on residential consumption.ICT service industry improves the production efficiency of the corresponding production sector by reducing the production cost,and then boosts the demand for social consumer goods and promotes consumption through the economic relationship between demand and price.Specific to the urban-rural dual structure,ICT service industry capital has a significant double threshold effect on the improvement of urban residents' consumption,and a significant single threshold effect on the improvement of rural residents' consumption.The promoting effect of ICT service industry capital on urban and rural residents' consumption increases with the increase of income level.Moreover,the income gap between urban and rural residents promotes urban residents' consumption while restrains rural residents'consumption.