Analysis Of Urban Investment Debt Risk In China And Policy Suggestions

As a financing method with Chinese characteristics,Urban investment bonds,on the one hand,its financing platform was first established by the government.The purpose of its establishment was to fill the funding gap for government infrastructure construction.At the beginning of its establishment,it had the nature of government bonds.On the one hand,with the posting and implementation of the No.43 series of policy documents,the government's role in urban investment financing platforms has been gradually stripped.The government's implicit guarantees have been gradually weakened.Urban investment bonds have gradually transformed into marketization,and urban investment bonds have become available again.The urban investment bonds also have some nature of general bonds.In 2020,the total issuance of urban investment bonds was 4.69 trillion yuan.The amount of repayment at maturity was 2.35 trillion yuan.The pressure of urban investment bonds to repay the bonds will be huge.Due to the strong tightening of the urban investment bonds policy in 2017,and the continuous emergence of problems in the operation and development of urban investment financing platforms,its non-standard defaults began to explode in 2018.What follows is the occurrence of urban investment bonds defaults.The risk of default on urban investment bonds continues to increase.However,the development of urban investment bonds is facing new opportunities.In early 2019,the National Development and Reform Commission and other 18 departments issued the "Notice on Strengthening the Promotion of Public Services in the Social Sector to Replenish Short board and Strengths and Improve Quality to Promote the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market."(Development and Reform Society[2019]No.0160),formulated the infrastructure construction action task;the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange relaxed restrictions on the application of bonds issuance;in June 2019,the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the Office of the State Council The Department issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in Local Government Special Bond Issuance and Project Supporting Financing Work"(Ting Zi[2019]No.33),which relaxes the financing restrictions of urban investment financing platforms and promotes financing credit enhancement;In 2020,the government continued to relax the use of urban investment bonds.The review and issuance policies of special urban investment bonds such as the "special urban investment bonds for epidemic prevention and control" have been further relaxed,and new opportunities have emerged for the development of urban investment bonds.The Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2020 required that 2021 is the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan".All kinds of derivative risks caused by the impact of the epidemic cannot be ignored,and we must continue to strive for progress while maintaining stability.In this context,on the one hand,we must continue to promote the transformation and development of urban investment bonds to better serve infrastructure construction in China,and on the other hand,we must more strictly prevent and control urban investment bonds risks.Based on this,this article studies the risks of urban investment bonds in my country and proposes policy recommendations for risk prevention and control.On the basis of combing related theories and research,firstly,the article analyzes the development status of urban investment bonds,and explores the risk factors of urban investment bonds,that is,scale expansion factors,policy tightening factors,and urban investment financing platform factors,etc.,and provides a writing perspective for the subsequent article.Secondly,from the perspective of risks caused by the expansion of the scale of urban investment bonds,the relationship between them and economic development and urban governance is explored separately,and the threshold effect of the scale of urban investment bonds is used to conduct risk analysis.Then,from the perspective of risks caused by policy tightening,it analyzes the effectiveness of policies,that is,the related issues of government implicit guarantees,and discusses the influence mechanism and heterogeneity of government implicit guarantees.Then,from the perspective of the risks caused by the urban investment financing platform itself and the risks caused by the implicit government guarantees that have been proved in the previous article,the bonds service funds mainly come from the operating platforms operated by themselves and most of the bonds service funds come from the government.The subsidized public welfare financing platform used the KMV model to calculate the risk of urban investment bonds and quantify the risk of urban investment bonds.Finally,from the government's strengthening of the construction of urban investment bonds mechanism,system construction,and guarantee management measures,they respectively proposed urban investment bonds risk prevention and control policy recommendations,with a view to providing theoretical support for urban investment bonds risk prevention and control,and further promoting governance system and governance modernization of capabilities.The specific research ideas of this article are as follows:The first chapter is the introduction.This part mainly introduces the topic background and significance of the research,clarifies the research content and research methods of the article,combs the research framework and technical route of the article,and analyzes the innovations and deficiencies of this article.The second chapter is the definition of related concepts,theoretical basis and literature review.It defines the related concepts of urban investment bonds,expounds the theoretical basis of the article,analyzes the related research of foreign municipal bonds risks,and uses the citespace knowledge graph analysis to focus on domestic cities.The analysis of investment risk research,will lay a theoretical foundation for subsequent research.The third chapter is about the development of urban investment bonds and the causes of risks.This part mainly analyzes the development history of urban investment bonds,the scale of urban investment bonds,the rating and the current status of defaults,and sorts out the policy measures that have a greater impact on the development of urban investment bonds.It introduces the foreign experience of municipal bonds risk prevention and control and its enlightenment to our country,and analyzes the causes of the risk of urban investment bonds in China to pave the way for subsequent research.The fourth chapter is the analysis of the relationship between the scale of urban investment bonds and economic development.Starting from the risks arising from the expansion of urban investment bonds,this chapter discusses the relationship between the scale of urban investment bonds(the proportion of urban investment bonds issued in GDP)and economic growth.From one point of view,the threshold effect model is used to study the threshold effect of the scale of urban investment bonds on economic growth,and the threshold for the scale of urban investment bonds to promote economic growth is determined.Chapter 5 is the analysis of the relationship between the scale of urban investment bonds and urban technological innovation.It also starts from the risks arising from the expansion of urban investment bonds.This chapter studies the scale of urban investment bonds and the three levels of urban technological innovation capabilities(corporate technological innovation capabilities,the government promotion of technological innovation,and infrastructure environmental innovation capability).The threshold effect model is used to explore the threshold effect between the scale of urban investment bonds and the urban technological innovation capability.And the threshold for the scale of urban investment bonds to promote the improvement of the city's scientific and technological innovation capability is determined.There is a heterogeneity relationship between the scale of urban investment bonds in regions,central regions,and western regions and the technological innovation capabilities of enterprises,the government's ability to promote technological innovation,and the ability of infrastructure environmental innovation.Chapter 6 is the risk analysis of urban investment bonds with implicit government guarantees.From the perspective of risks arising from changes in macroeconomic policies,this chapter verifies the factors affecting credit enhancement,the financial status of bond issuers,and the macroeconomic environment.The impact of Circular 43 and the implementation of the 2015 New "Budget Law of the People's Republic of China"on government implicit guarantees and the mechanism of government implicit guarantees is discussed.Then,the heterogeneity of the mechanism of different types of urban investment bonds is explored.With the implementation of Circular 43 and the 2015 New "Budget Law of the People's Republic of China",the conclusion that the government's implicit guarantee is weakened but still exists,paves the way for the research in chapter 7.Chapter 7 is the risk calculation of urban investment bonds based on the KMV model.Starting from the risks arising from the urban investment financing platform's own related factors and the risks arising from the government's implicit guarantee,the bonds repayment funds mainly come from the operating platform and bonds repayment of its own operation most of the funds came from government-subsidized public welfare platforms.The KMV model was used to quantitatively predict the default distance and default probability of urban investment bonds,providing a basis for the establishment of an early warning mechanism for urban investment bonds.Chapter 8 presents the conclusions and policy recommendations of the article.First,summarize the conclusions from the research.On this basis,it proposes to coordinate the relationship between central and local governments to reasonably control the scale of urban investment bonds;improve the approval of urban investment bonds.System,promotes the development of special urban investment bonds and other aspects of policy recommendations,in order to more effectively prevent and resolve the risks of urban investment bonds in China.The innovations of this article are as follows:First,the article uses Citespace knowledge graph analysis to visualize literature data on the subject of "urban investment bonds risk".Through combing the research context,it is analyzed that the future development direction of the topic of "urban investment bond risk" is the risks arising from the expansion of urban investment bonds,the influence mechanism of the government's implicit guarantee,and the urban investment bonds issued to different types of urban investment financing platforms Risk estimation,etc.,paves the way for the follow-up research of the article.Second,due to the lack of research on the risks of the expansion of urban investment bonds,chapters 4 and 5 of this article start from the risks arising from the expansion of urban investment bonds,uses sample data of prefecture-level urban investment bonds and uses the threshold effect model.Explored the threshold effect of the scale of.urban investment bonds on economic growth and urban technological innovation.The threshold for the scale of urban investment bonds to promote economic growth and urban technological innovation is determined to be 0.4%to 2.9%.Provide a basis for the later policy recommendations for reasonable control of the scale of urban investment bond.The third is to use the double differential model to study the heterogeneity of the government's implicit guarantee mechanism and the implicit guarantee mechanism of different types of urban investment bonds.Due to the lack of research on the government's implicit guarantee mechanism,chapter 6 of this article starts from the perspective of risks arising from the tightening of macro policies,uses financial data from urban investment financing platforms,and uses a double differential model to explore the net of urban investment bonds policies.From the perspective of local government revenue,financial subsidies and tax incentives,it analyzes the influence mechanism of government implicit guarantees,and explores the heterogeneity of different implicit guarantee mechanisms for urban investment bonds.It is concluded that fiscal revenue,fiscal subsidies and tax incentives are the influencing mechanism of implicit government guarantees,and the existence of heterogeneity,which provides the basis for the later policy recommendations such as strengthening the credit guarantee of urban investment bonds and improving government financial support measures.