The Impact Of Trade Liberalization On Sustainable Management Of Natural Resources And Economic Growth ——A Study On Uganda's Agricultural Sector

This Paper explores trade liberalization and initiatives in Uganda after the mid1980s on production and exports/imports of farming commodities.Opening the economy through trade was expected to enhance agricultural production and exports by changing the relative prices favoring agriculture and incentivizing public and private investments in this sector(Maes et al.,2019).Nevertheless,the post-liberalization(post-WTO)period's expectations have experienced a significant deceleration in agricultural and output growth and agricultural commodities yield.Farm product exports and imports have consistently increased with increasing trade but widening inter-temporal fluctuations.There has also been a significant transformation in the composition of agricultural product transactions.With the rising proportion of agricultural trade to farm income and world agricultural trade,associated with increasing domestic and international agricultural commodities prices,Ugandan agriculture has gradually integrated with global markets(Delgado-serrano 2017).To attain the Paper's objectives,we used a general specific approach and full specification in all country regions to build empirical models;we take help from previous literature on trade liberalization and production diversion theory.Notably,econometric models are drawn as per the logical and analytical framework of economic ideas.For empirical analysis,we used a data set of Uganda for the period 1983Q12020Q4.The data for our primary variables of interest were the trade growth,unlimited natural resources,gross domestic products,mining production index,industrial production index,and the amount of agriculture produced at the Uganda national bureau source on data.Firstly,we used the statistics code for the agriculture and industrial sectors.The unlimited natural resources,gross domestic information partly obtained from Uganda financial institutions,the bureau,and other data from the economic index.The data set is further categorized into four regions South,West,East,and core areas in different levels of high-income,low income,and middle-income farmers(Kanter et al.,2018).The overall findings significantly impact the agriculture sector in various forms and create a better trade and cheerful layout in most cases.We employed univariate and multiple vector regression in estimation strategy for agriculture production,the diagnostic tests ARDL,ADF,and cointegration of empirical outcomes.Furthermore,we also checked the time-lagged effect of the primary variable interest;agriculture produce,unlimited natural resources,and trade for complete regional analysis.Finally,in a robust estimation for agriculture produce,the Paper further checked the role of mining and gross domestic products under institutional and governance variables towards different types of flow,which revealed a positive outcome on economic development.The summary statistic for our primary variables of interest,control variables,and institutional factors found no outliers in the data(D.L.McCollum,2018).In the empirical study,we substituted alternatives to control the types of trade flow variables for the various control variables.The results show that agriculture-related incidences in Uganda and economic growth via other channels discourage trade.We note that civil wars affect trade relationships with neighboring countries,portfolio investment,and debt stocks.At the same time,the high magnitude is pointed out in the Eastern part.These findings are justified because political instability increases the projected risk of mining and lowers returns in the long term.The practical output further that expenditure on total natural resources helps to attract investment in Uganda.Trade values are directed towards economic growth on a positive relationship as discussed through categories by lowering business management risks.According to the results,unlimited natural resources,mining,and gross domestic products decrease farmers' complete sample process,Eastern,western southern,and central parts.The results are in the previous literature and explain the currency depreciation,trade liberalization,competitiveness of exports on the international level might be critical macro-economic factors in making financial decisions(Walter,2016).The empirical findings for institutional findings report that the government's effectiveness,size,money maintenance,and political stability can be essential in deciding on trade and investment.The empirical result is exciting and in line with the theory,demonstrating that government expenditure,colossal tax burden,low purchasing power,and financial market stagnation are discouraging international trade inflows,which further point out that there would be some problems in markets concerning economic progress regulations and financial institution developments.Similarly,the government's good financial openness and political stability might maintain and attract export and import flows.After discussing the effect of trade broadmindedness and rules for supportable management of organic assets,we make the analysis point directly on the agriculture sector,which is also a central contribution to the dissertation.The illegal movement of goods and corruption is considered a threat to economic growth and can cause capital scarcity in Uganda.We used quarterly divisions in different mining areas as a policy variable in empirical models on the mining sector.We checked whether most of the negative impact agriculture sector modulates production(Hakimi?Hamdi,2016).The observed variations and the ARDL system provide compelling evidence that Uganda's unlimited natural resources and macroeconomic instability could victimize economic growth.Besides,we find evidence industries might be used as a critical variable in increasing trade,and the Paper proposes to decrease the production flow of goods in the country.Concerning the control variables,the results note that trade liberalization,unlimited natural resources,mining,industries,the gross domestic product have a significant percentage in agriculture sector development,especially in machinery and technology maintenance on economic growth.Empirical findings identify that macroeconomic stability regarding political stability and governance is considered essential in mitigating trade policies.The results of IRF show that shocks from trade and national income have significant positive and persistent influences on agriculture products.Restore on produce When a business variable undergoes a surprise,it becomes the most defenseless.Then,using the FEVD analysis,all variables are calculated to affect the cultivation sector's most significant contributions to trade and national income.Overall empirical findings allow us to draw innovative conclusions and formulate strategies regarding development.These findings can be used by policymakers of Uganda economists and individual investors to attract more trade and investments.