Research On The Marketization Proportion Of The PPP Project In Urban Rail Transit

With the process of urbanization in China,the urban rail transit system,which is the backbone of urban development,has entered a stage of large-scale and rapid development.The number of cities opened for operation,mileage,passenger transport volume,and annual investment all set new highs year by year.In the next ten years,cities Rail transit will usher in a wave of large-scale development.Urban rail transit projects have the characteristics of large investment scale,long construction period,and low return on investment.The source of construction funds is mainly the financial investment of local governments in each city.This government investment model is the traditional model in the field of urban rail transit.The situation that the government dominates the market has caused problems such as prominent contradiction between the supply and demand of project construction funds,and insufficient competition leading to inefficiency.It is urgent to solve such problems in a market-oriented manner.Introducing the PPP model to solve the shortage of funds and efficiency is an effective market-based solution,but based on the fundamental attributes of urban rail transit projects,the economic attributes and interest demands of the representatives of the government and social capital are different,which leads to the introduction of funds for the project Proportions hold different expectations,and the proportion of social capital introduced lacks scientific basis.Therefore,the study of the reasonable investment ratio of both parties in the urban rail transit PPP project will provide a theoretical reference for the investment decisionmaking and multi-party win-win situation of the government and enterprises in actual operation.As for the word "proportion" in quasi-public products,most of the researches analyze it from a qualitative perspective,while there are few studies on quantitative analysis.In the PPP model,the government and the social capital can jointly serve as the supplier of products and services,but the government based on the lower return requirements of the project reflects the project's public welfare attributes,and the social capital based on the higher return to the project The requirements reflect the commercial nature of the project.Therefore,from the perspective of supply analysis: the ratio of the capital contribution structure of the government and the social capital can be a quantitative reflection of the different economic attributes of the two in quasi-public products.This paper attempts to analyze and research the "Proportion" in public products from a quantitative perspective,and puts forward the concept of "Marketization Proportion" :urban rail transit is a quasi-public product.When the PPP model is adopted,the social capital will contribute The proportion represents the proportion of the project's marketoriented attributes,which is the market-oriented quantity.Further,the concept of the optimal marketization criterion is defined as the maximum equity capital contribution ratio expected by the government and acceptable to the social capital side.The corresponding "marketization criterion" also indirectly reflects the quasi-public product The internal relationship between the public welfare attributes and commercial attributes.The revealing and researching of this relationship has significant theoretical and practical significance.The analysis of the status quo of the development of urban rail transit in China shows that investment and financing has become an urgent problem for government construction projects,and PPP is a better solution.From the development experience of the United Kingdom,Australia,Canada and other countries,as well as the analysis of domestic industry experts and existing case studies,the standardized operation of PPP projects is affected by certain key factors.The impact of direct influencing factors such as project financial model,efficiency,government fiscal expenditure commitments,on the marketbased quantitative model can be quantified;indirect influencing factors such as organizational marketing strategy,policies and regulations,risk allocation,public responsibility,are in the willingness and income of both parties to contribute Different dimensions and degrees such as expectations and operational efficiency have an impact on the government and social capital.These factors will become the basis for influencing the investment decision of both parties in the PPP project.This article discusses and gives suggestions and recommendations.The literature related to the research on the marketization proportion of urban rail transit focuses more on the research of the PPP model of infrastructure projects,such as the choice of financing mode and the optimization of financing structure.Although in PPP projects,the equity capital contribution ratio of the government and the social capital is an important issue in the actual operation of the project,there are few related studies,especially the discussion of the most reasonable contribution ratio acceptable to both parties.Research is even rarer.As a typical quasi-public product,urban rail transit projects have the unique dual attributes of quasi-public products.Adopting the PPP model is a market-based supply method adopted by quasi-public products.The government and social capital parties' pursuit of different attributes of public products also determines different investment decision-making ideas.This is the participation of both parties in urban rail transit PPP.The logic of the project is self-consistent.This article takes the economic attributes of urban rail transit as a starting point for research.It is believed that the different demands of the government and the social capital lead to different investment return requirements,which will result in a differentiated investment return requirement curve.The investment project from the perspective of the social capital There is a consensus point of interest in the obtained return requirement curve and the government's perspective that can give social capital return to the supply curve,which forms the equilibrium state of the project marketization standard,which is the marketization standard studied in this article.Based on the net present value method,capital structure and other financial related theories,combined with the logical relationship between influencing factors,this paper forms a market-based quantitative model,and studies the influence of factors such as social capital's production efficiency and project liability structure on market-based standards.Impact,dynamic analysis of the changing trend of marketization standards under different alienation conditions of transfers and acquisitions by the government,and also analysis of the sensitivity of marketization standards under the expectations of different capabilities of social capital and changes in project liability structure,Got a series of research conclusions.Conclusion 1: There is an optimal marketization criterion,so that the rate of return given by the government of the urban rail transit PPP project and the required remuneration of the social capital can reach a state of equilibrium.This equilibrium state can also reflect the structural ratio of the project's public welfare and commerciality.Conclusion 2: When the government transfers the proceeds to the social capital,the marketization standard tends to increase;when the government claims the proceeds,the marketization standard tends to decrease.Conclusion 3: When the increase in production efficiency brought about by the increase of social capital's shareholder resources,the government's return on investment and the social capital's investment income both show an increasing trend,and the intersection of the two curves increases accordingly.The marketization standards have also increased at the same time.The specific impact of production efficiency is reflected in: if the total investment of the project is saved,operating costs are reduced,and operating income increases,the level of marketization standards will increase;conversely,the level of marketization standards will decrease.Conclusion 4: When the project debt ratio decreases and the tax shield effect is greater than the debt bankruptcy risk cost,the marketization standard changes with the debt ratio in the same trend;when the project debt ratio increases until the tax shield effect is less than the debt bankruptcy risk cost,as the debt The proportion or the cost of bankruptcy risk continues to increase,and the marketization standard is showing a trend from rising to falling.In terms of empirical research,this article is based on the marketization standard model of urban rail transit PPP projects,and tests the theoretical results of marketization standard through empirical analysis of multiple actual projects.Based on the case of the standard model,combined with different cases such as the government's transfer of benefits and the government's request for benefits,the three market-based quantitative models and the impact of key factors are analyzed.The actual results are consistent with the research results.: When the government transfers its own income,the marketization standard is on the rise.When the government asks for the same income as the social capital,the market standard is on the decline;when the efficiency of the social capital increases,the market standard is The amount is on the rise;when the rate of return on the social capital side is greater than the cost of debt funds,an increase in the proportion of project debt will increase the marketability standard.The case empirically verifies the effectiveness of the market-oriented quantitative model.The innovations of this article include:First,carry out market-based quantitative research based on the government's perspective.Most of the existing research on the capital structure of PPP projects focuses on the optimal combination of equity and debt in the financing structure.The research objects are mainly social capital parties and financial institutions,and rarely focus on the equity contribution structure of the government and social capital.research.Given that the profitability of urban rail transit projects is not yet sufficient to provide market-based investment returns for social capital,the government's capital investment and subsidies in PPP projects are indispensable,which also determines that the government needs to carefully choose the proportion of foreign capital.Seek a balance between improving project efficiency and giving social capital a return on investment.In terms of financial analysis,the government considers from meeting the minimum return requirements of the social capital side,and the selected project value measurement standard is NPV=0.Only from the perspective of the government's NPV=0,not from the perspective of the social capital's expectation of NPV>0,can the relationship curve between the social capital's return on investment and the proportion of foreign capital(that is,the return supply curve)be obtained.Then it is possible to build a market-oriented quantitative model.In addition,in terms of project practice,since PPP projects are initiated and led by the government,social capital parties negotiate and play with them.Usually,in the process of project decision-making,the government perspective is the dominant aspect of this contradiction.Based on the above two considerations,this article mainly starts from the government's perspective to carry out relevant research on marketization standards.This is the innovative point of this article.Second,pioneeringly proposed the concept of marketization proportion and constructed a marketization proportion model.The marketization proportion model of urban rail transit is another major innovation of this article.As mentioned above,there are few existing research results on the marketization criteria of PPP projects.The urban rail transit marketization criteria model constructed in this article is novel in terms of content.This paper analyzes the different requirements for capital contribution and return of the government and social capital of urban rail transit PPP projects,and gives the return requirement curve of the social capital investment and the return supply curve of the government introducing social capital,and derives When the two requirements reach a balance,the investment ratio is reasonable,that is,the optimal marketization standard,and then the urban rail transit marketization standard model is constructed.Through further research and analysis of the marketization proportion model,its scientificity and practicability have been enriched,and it has been well applied and verified in practice.Third,it quantitatively analyzes the structural proportional relationship between the two supply modes of quasi-public products.Regarding quasi-public products,most experts and scholars study their economic attributes from a qualitative perspective,and seldom carry out quantitative analysis on the word "proportion",especially the proportional relationship between their public welfare attributes and commercial attributes.This article starts with the supply mode of quasi-public products,and through the study of the supply mode in urban rail transit PPP projects,proposes to use government funding to represent the traditional government supply mode,and social capital to represent the market supply mode,and use "market “Quantity of quasi-public goods” to quantitatively reflect the proportion of market-oriented methods in the supply of “quasi-public goods”.On the other hand,supply is to meet demand,and the balance between supply and demand is a realistic manifestation of its economic attributes.According to the analysis of the characteristics of different equity capital in public products in this article,it can be considered to a certain extent that the government based on the lower return requirements of the project reflects the public welfare attributes of the project in the way of supply,while the social capital is based on the The requirement for higher returns of the project reflects the commercial nature of the project in terms of supply mode,and the "market-oriented quantity" also indirectly reflects the internal logical relationship between the public welfare and commercial attributes of quasi-public products.By studying the "marketization proportion",this paper conducts a quantitative analysis of the supply mode of urban rail transit PPP projects,reveals a structural proportional relationship between the dual attributes of its as a quasi-public product,and has its remarkable theory And practical significance.Fourth,the market-oriented quantitative theory has been enriched in light of the actual situation.This article not only analyzes the marketization of urban rail transit PPP projects theoretically,but also completes the research issues from the perspective of actual project operation.First of all,it analyzes whether the PPP project is "same share with the same rights".It is believed that the marketization standard still has the mode of the government transferring the income and the mode of the government requesting the income.Under different modes,the government requires remuneration.The difference has an impact on the weighted average cost of capital,and the marketization standards have also changed.At the same time,it also provides a trend analysis of the impact of the social capital's production efficiency changes and the project's own debt structure changes on the marketization standard.In the analysis of the debt structure impact,the effects of tax shield and debt bankruptcy risk costs are also considered..This is not only an extension of the basic analysis of the marketization proportion model,but also the theoretical reference significance of project operations in the actual process.In summary,this article explores the marketization mechanism of urban rail transit projects based on the perspective of PPP project funding structure;based on the different economic attributes of government and social capital based on the difference in return requirements for investment in quasi-public goods from the government and social capital It establishes a theoretical framework for the two parties to reach an equilibrium state of the capital structure through the game;through the construction of a marketization proportion model,it explores the capital structure of the balanced urban rail transit PPP project,and explores the efficiency of social capital and the structure of project liabilities.The influence mechanism of factors on marketization standards.These studies provide a new perspective for improving the equity capital contribution structure of urban rail transit PPP projects,and provide a theoretical basis and practical support for government and social capital investment decisions.