Economic Virtualization And Real Economic Development

At present,many research papers attribute the financial crisis in 2008 to the over-virtualization of the US economy.In 2010,the former US President Barack Obama proposed a strategy of re-industrialization to reshape the brilliance of American industry.However,no substantial progress has been made.The proportion of GDP added by manufacturing industry declined further from 12.8%in 2007 to 11.74% and 11.6% in 2016 and 2017,but the proportion of GDP in financial sector has returned to its pre-crisis level.Similarly,China is facing an increasingly prominent dilemma of " shifting from real economy to virtual economy " and "attaching more importance to virtual economy than real economy",which means that the real economy is growing slowly,while the virtual economy is showing excessive prosperity.In March 2019,at the second session of the 13 th National People's Congress,Premier Li Keqiang once again mentioned in "Report on the Work of the Government" that efforts should be made to alleviate the problem of difficult and expensive financing for enterprises,and the funds should not be idled or " shifting from real economy to virtual economy ".Therefore,the systematic research and scientific measurement of economic virtualization is an urgent task related to the deepening reform and development of China's economy.In 2014,at the national virtual economy seminar,Professor Liu Xiaoxin,Director of the Research Center of Virtual Economy and Management of Nankai University,held that there are four core issues in the relationship between virtual economy and real economy.One is the definition and statistical characterization of virtual economy and real economy,the other is the operational mechanism of both,the third is the quantitative criterion of their benign interaction,and the fourth is the theoretical model test of excessive or insufficient development of virtual economy.In view of this,this paper focuses on the mechanism and measurement of the impact of economic virtualization development on the real economy.In the expectation of this paper,firstly,it reveals the influence of economic virtualization on the operation mechanism of real economy from the framework of macroeconomic theory analysis.Then,it establishes a system accounting index system to measure the degree of economic virtualization,and empirically analyzes the reasonable relationship based on the accounting data.Specifically,this study has done the following several main works.Firstly,the paper review the theory and literature,understand the origin and development of the concept of virtual economy,grasp the theory of virtual economy and real economy,and summarize the research literature of the relationship between virtual economy and real economy.Through theoretical review and literature review,this paper puts forward and analyses the problems,and lays the foundation for the later research.Secondly,this paper proposes to incorporate the capital virtualization flow factor into the classical macroeconomic Ramsey model.Under the framework of micro-individual optimization and dynamic general equilibrium,through deduction and numerical simulation,this paper analyses the influence mechanism and action path of virtualization development factors on various variables of real economy,which provides a theoretical basis for later measurement analysis and empirical research.Thirdly,guided by the principles of SNA,MFS and China's national economic accounting system,and under the requirements of scientificity,unity,hierarchy and feasibility,this paper constructs the measurement index system from three levels: virtual economy,real economy and the relationship between virtual and real economy.Then,according to the open data and research literature,this paper calculates and practices the index system,and prospects the future work of virtual economic accounting.Fourthly,using threshold regression,non-parametric regression and other econometric models,this paper empirically studies the impact of virtual economy on the real economy.Fifthly,this paper explores and summarizes the main reasons for the imbalance between virtualization and real economy in recent years.Then,it select the proxy indicators of the causes,and make an empirical study on the basis of the deviation measurement between the real and the virtual.Finally,according to the analysis of the full text,this paper puts forward some pertinent suggestions and enlightenments for the effective regulation and control of the problem of over-virtualization development.This research combines the theories of macroeconomics,mathematical economics,finance,statistics,national economic statistical accounting,econometrics and other disciplines.From theoretical analysis to statistical measurement,and then to empirical research,it forms a more detailed and systematic analysis of the relationship between economic virtualization and real economy.There are several innovations in this study.First of all,this paper expands and optimizes the application of the existing macroeconomic model.It effectively integrates the virtualization factors in the macroeconomic mode,and achieves the interpretation effect in line with the real economic significance.Secondly,it does not describe the measurement of economic virtualization with a single and alternative index,but constructs a systematic measurement index system based on the current national accounts,and makes a more detailed statistical practice measurement.Thirdly,it combines theoretical mechanism,statistical measurement data and econometric model for empirical research.Through the design and selection of econometric model,it explores the law of economic virtualization on the operation of real economy,and finds a reasonable boundary between the two.The main conclusions of this paper include the following points.Firstly,the term "virtual economy" was first proposed by Chinese academics after the Asian financial crisis in 1998.It was derived from Marx's fictitious capital.So far,there are still many differences in meaning and scope.The basic consensus is that virtual economy is based on real economy and has relatively independent operation characteristics.Psychological expectation plays a key role in price determination system of virtual economy.Insufficient or excessive development of virtual economy will affect the operation of real economy.Secondly,by Ramsey's model,this paper concludes that under the given conditions of other exogenous parameters,the increase of the efficiency of investment of capital-converting entities,or the decrease of the degree of deviation between virtual and real will raise the level of output.In the short run,consumption will be affected by the "wealth effect" of the virtual economy,but the final consumption level is determined by the output level.Thirdly,because the concept of virtual economy has not been included in the national economic accounting system,the accurate measurement of virtual economy still has many difficulties.But the accounting of virtual economy can be merged under the SNA,MFS and China's national economic accounting system.It can improve and supplement more deficiencies of the current national accounting system.Then,this paper designs the statistical index system of the measurement of virtual economy,real economy and virtual-real relationship,and carries out practical calculation.The results show that,compared with some measures,the measurement index system is closer to the relevant concepts and categories,and reflects economic phenomena in more detail and systematically.Fourthly,through the empirical analysis of threshold regression,non-parametric regression and other econometric models,the impact mechanism of virtual economy on real economy is a non-linear relationship,with a certain threshold range.From the data calculation,it is roughly in the position of 1.4:1ratio of the scale of the virtual economy to the real economy.Therefore,it is only within a reasonable range that the virtual economy and the real economy have a positive interaction.Then,from the view of the flow of funds,the improvement of the degree of " shifting from real economy to virtual economy" of funds has "crowding-out effect" on the real economy and real investment,and the impact path on consumption is a similar relationship of rising first and then falling.The empirical results effectively verify the relevant conclusions in the theoretical mechanism analysis,so that the structural system of this paper forms a unified organic whole.Fifthly,for China's economy,the main causes of rapid development of economic virtualization include the following points.The return rate of real economy investment is far lower than that of virtual economy.The rapid growth of money supply provides liquidity support for the virtual economy market.There is a structural mismatch between financial industry and real economy.The empirical results show that the decline of real investment return,the increase of money supply growth rate and the deterioration of structural problems will promote the raise of the degree of deviation between virtual and real economy.The concept of over-virtualization has been closely related to financial crisis since it came into being.After the financial crisis in 2008,it has become a research hotspot again.But,the complexity of the virtual economic system,and coupled with the repetition of crises,warns us that we still have a long way to go to understand the essence of economic law.Through this study,the suggestions and enlightenments include the following points.We should correctly understand the relationship between virtual economy and real economy,perfect the relevant theoretical research,establish and improve the statistical accounting system of virtual economy,and deeply explore the economic root of " shifting from real economy to virtual economy ".Thus,we can promote the positive interaction between virtual economy development and real economy demand,and prevent the risks and hazards of virtual economy over-expansion to a country's economy.Follow-up research is concerned about the relationship between virtual economy and economic crisis,and establish a detection index system to provide early warning reference for the possible crisis caused by excessive expansion of virtual economy.