| At present,China has become the hub of the value cycle of the world's major economies,and is the key node connecting the developed and developing economies.But in recent years,the trend of international unilateralism and counter globalization has been gradually enhanced.In 2020,the global COVID-19 epidemic aggravated the negative impact.China and even the global industrial chain and supply chain all had problems such as the synchronization of upstream and downstream,the disintegration of production,supply and marketing and so on,which reflected the fragility of the world production system.Therefore,based on the above background,considering China's complete industrial production chain system and huge economic development potential,the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19 th CPC Central Committee pointed out that it is necessary to speed up the construction of a new development pattern with domestic large circulation as the main body and domestic and international double circulation promoting each other,give full play to the advantages of China's domestic demand market and super large-scale processing and manufacturing system,and promote the upgrading of industrial foundation and production The modernization of industry chain and other social productivity.The realization of the new pattern of double circulation is inseparable from the coordination and promotion of monetary policy.By guiding the flow of credit resources,we can provide a better monetary and financial environment for the production network,make finance better serve the real economy,build the core competitiveness of the production network embedded in the domestic economic cycle,and improve the ability and efficiency of resource allocation.Under the background of economic policy uncertainty,this thesis reveals the effect of monetary policy from four macro and micro perspectives: economic growth,stable price,income growth and R & D innovation,to what extent the monetary policy effect is realized through the transmission of production network mechanism.The research content has significant theoretical and practical significance to accelerate the formation of a new dual cycle development pattern dominated by domestic large cycle.In addition to the introduction and conclusion,this research mainly includes six chapters.The first chapter is the theoretical basis of this study.It analyzes the theory of the transmission effect of production network of monetary policy and the measurement of the transmission effect of monetary policy,which provides a theoretical framework for the empirical study.The second chapter is the measurement of production network,which provides the research foreshadowing for the empirical research of spatial Metrology Analysis below.It also visually analyzes how demand side impact can influence the production of multiple industries directly or indirectly through the transmission and superposition of production network,and then affect the whole national economy.The third chapter is the effect of monetary policy on economic growth.This chapter selects SDM to construct the spatial econometric model,studies and analyzes the extent to which the monetary policy effect on economic growth is realized through the transmission of production network,and explores whether the uncertainty of high frequency and low frequency economic policy will affect the direct effect and network effect of monetary policy.The fourth chapter is the influence of monetary policy on price stability through production network transmission effect.This chapter proves that production network is an important mechanism of monetary policy to price transmission,an important channel to explain the structural inflation effect of monetary policy,and provides empirical evidence for whether high-frequency economic policy uncertainty will affect the direct effect and network effect of monetary policy.The fifth chapter is the influence of the transmission effect of production network on income distribution of monetary policy.In this chapter,the effect of traditional direct effect impact on urban and rural income inequality is verified by using SVAR.The direct effect and network effect decomposition technology of spatial econometric model are used to reveal the extent to which the effect of monetary policy to urban average income is realized through production network,and the production network is verified to be The important channel to explain the income distribution effect of monetary policy.Chapter six is the impact of the transmission effect of monetary policy on industry R & D innovation.This chapter proves that production network is an important transmission mechanism of monetary policy to R & D innovation in various industries,and an important factor to enhance the activity of R & D innovation in the industry.It also verifies whether the uncertainty of high-frequency economic policy will affect the direct effect and network effect of monetary policy on R & D innovation.The theoretical analysis of this study shows that:(1)production network is an important mechanism of monetary policy transmission to the real economy,and an important micro transmission channel to explain the impact of macro monetary policy demand impact on economic growth,structural inflation,income distribution and industry R & D innovation.When the demand of expansionary monetary policy shocks,it will directly lead to the increase of the demand for J products of downstream enterprises closest to the consumer end,which will promote the price of J products to rise,the production efficiency of J products enterprises to improve and the R & D and innovation activity of J products enterprises to enhance,so that J products enterprises will inevitably increase the purchase demand for upstream intermediate products.Based on the transmission effect of input-output production network,the loose monetary policy demand shock will make all upstream industries as intermediate inputs of J products produce the initial direct impact of positive demand.This initial direct impact will be further transmitted through the network effect of production network,from the downstream to the upstream step by step.By analogy,the production chain of expansionary monetary policy demand shock is transmitted from downstream enterprises to upstream enterprises step by step.(2)The uncertainty of economic policy will weaken the transmission effect of monetary policy.On the one hand,monetary policy will ultimately achieve its role through micro enterprises and commercial banks,but economic uncertainty may reduce the credit supply of commercial banks or bias to state-owned enterprise loans,resulting in discrimination,which will make small and micro enterprises in all sectors of the production network face higher financing costs and thresholds,which will reduce the production efficiency of downstream small and micro enterprises in the production network The results show that the employment rate,labor factor flow,employment distribution and R & D innovation investment are the main factors.The transmission effect of production network based on input-output will have a negative impact on the operation of upstream enterprises,which will affect the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission to the value-added of various industries,industrial prices,average income and industrial innovation and R & D through the weakening of production network.On the other hand,under the uncertainty of economic policy,some enterprises in the input-output production network will face the problem of labor shortage,which will disturb the industrial chain system and labor division system in the production network,and lead to the temporary fracture of some industrial chains in the production network.The demand shock of monetary policy will break temporarily in the process of transmission to the upstream industry step by step through the production chain,which will affect the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission to the value-added,prices,income distribution and industrial innovation and R & D of various industries through the production network.The empirical research of this thesis verifies the viewpoints and theoretical hypotheses obtained from the theoretical analysis,and finds that:First,the production network is an important mechanism for the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy,and is one of the important reasons why monetary policy promotes economic growth.The direct and indirect effects of quantitative monetary policy(M2)on industrial added value are significantly positive,while the direct and indirect effects of Price-based monetary policy(Shibor)on industrial added value are significantly negative,but the network effect is not significant.In addition,about 27.3% of the network effect of monetary policy(M2)comes from the amplification effect of production network,and the direct effect of M2 accounts for 72.7% of the total effect.It shows that the network effect of China's monetary policy is significantly positive through the production network to the real economy,and the intermediary variable of monetary policy is still quantitative,which is in line with the reality of China's current quantitative monetary policy framework.Second,the production network is an important mechanism of monetary policy transmission to prices and an important channel to explain the structural inflation effect of monetary policy.The direct and network effects of quantitative monetary policy(M2)on industrial prices are significantly positive,which can be expanded through the production network.The direct effect of Price-based monetary policy(SHIBOR)on industrial prices is significantly negative,but the network effect is not significant,that is,the impact of demand shock of Price-based monetary policy on the prices of various industries through the expansion of production network is uncertain.In addition,the network effect of quantitative monetary policy on price shocks accounts for 67.3% of the total effect,and the direct effect of M2 accounts for 32.7% of the total effect,indicating that the network effect of monetary policy on price shocks is a very important part of the total effect.Third,production network is an important mechanism for monetary policy to transmit the average income of various industries,and it is one of the reasons to explain the income distribution function of monetary policy.The direct effect and network spillover effect of quantitative monetary policy shock are significantly positive,which can expand the impact on the average income of each industry through the production network.The direct benefit,network spillover benefit and total effect of Price-based monetary policy on the average income of each industry are not significant,that is,the negative impact(easing)response of urban residents' income to Price-based monetary policy in China is uncertain.In addition,the direct effect of quantitative monetary policy(M2)impact on the average income of various industries accounts for 95% of the total effect,and the network effect of M2 accounts for 5% of the total effect,indicating that only 5% of the impact of monetary policy impact on the per capita income of urban residents comes from the expansion effect of production network,and the ratio of network effect to the total effect is relatively low.Fourth,the production network is an important transmission mechanism of monetary policy to the R & D and innovation of various industries,and an important channel to enhance the R & D and innovation activity of the industry.The direct and network effects of quantitative monetary policy(M2)on industrial R & D and innovation are significantly positive,and the influence on industrial R & D and innovation activity can be expanded through production network.The direct effect of Price-based monetary policy(SHIBOR)on the industry R & D innovation is significantly negative,but the network effect is not significant,that is,the impact of Price-based monetary policy on the industry R & D innovation activity through the expansion of production network is uncertain.In addition,about 66.2% of the total effect of monetary policy(M2)on industrial R & D innovation comes from the amplification effect of production network,that is,network effect accounts for 66.2% of the total effect,and direct effect accounts for only 33.8% of the total effect.Fifth,economic policy uncertainty(EPU)will weaken the transmission effect of monetary policy in the production network.By comparing the regression coefficients of EPU full sample,high-frequency EPU sample and low-frequency EPU sample,we can see that: in high-frequency EPU sample,the absolute values of the coefficients of direct effect and network effect of M2 are smaller,and significantly weakened.In the low-frequency EPU samples,the absolute values of the coefficients of direct effect and network effect of M2 increase,and are significantly positive in both.In high frequency EPU samples,the absolute values of Shibor's direct effect and network effect coefficients are the smallest,and they are not significant.In the low-frequency EPU samples,the absolute values of Shibor's direct effect coefficients are the largest,and are significantly negative,in which the network effect is not significant.High frequency economic policy uncertainty will weaken the direct effect and network effect of monetary policy based on the production network transmission channel on the added value of various industries,prices of various industries,average income of various industries and the impact of R &D and innovation of various industries.The policy recommendations of this thesis mainly include: First,gradually promote the monetary policy from quantitative to price-based change.In the process of monetary policy transmission from the production network to the real economy,quantitative monetary policy is the main one,and the network effect of Price-based monetary policy is not significant.The key problem is to solve the "interest rate double track" problem of deposit and loan benchmark interest rate and market interest rate coexisting,and realize the full marketization of interest rate.Secondly,build a digital production network.The digital production network can better reflect the technical and economic relations among various industrial departments in the production network of the input-output table,which is conducive to the rapid and efficient operation of factors of production in the production network,and dredge the transmission mechanism of monetary policy through the production network.The construction of digital industrial Internet needs to make full use of digital technology,lead the material chain with the data supply chain,promote the efficient coordination of the industrial chain,and make the deep integration of high-end manufacturing and modern service industry,industrialization and informatization.Third,promote the construction of rural urbanization.The key to promoting rural urbanization is to reform the household registration system,realize the citizenization of migrant workers,allow the free flow of labor factors in the production network,and increase the income of residents.Finally,we support the expansion of financing for intellectual property pledging.The loose monetary policy is based on the knowledge spillover effect of the transmission of production network to support R & D and innovation,which exists intra-industry spillover and cross-industry diffusion.Expanding intellectual property pledge financing is an important channel to reduce the financing cost burden of small and micro enterprises from the source.Research and innovation is the core endogenous driving force for China's sustainable economic development,which requires banks,enterprises,governments,guarantee companies and other multi-parties to actively explore the operation mode of intellectual property pledge financing for high-tech asset-light enterprises.The research contributions of this study are mainly reflected in the following two aspects: First,it enriches the theoretical framework of monetary policy transmission mechanism.Most of the traditional researches only focus on the direct effect of macro monetary policy,but lack the indirect effect(network effect)of monetary policy.In Chapter 3,Chapter 4,Chapter 5 and Chapter 6,this study verifies that the production network is an important mechanism for the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the real economy,industry prices,industry average income and industry R & D innovation intensity.Loose or tight monetary policy may directly lead to the increase or decrease of the demand for products of enterprises closest to consumers,which will lead to the increase or decrease of the demand for intermediate goods.This demand shock will be transmitted to the upstream industries step by step through the production chain of the production network,and finally release all the direct and indirect effects of monetary policy.The second is to expand the scope of application of spatial econometric model.Based on the spatial Durbin model,this study decomposes the overall effect of monetary policy shock into direct effect and indirect(Network)effect,explores whether the production network expands the role of macro shock,and measures the transmission effect of production network of monetary policy demand shock.Different from the traditional spatial measurement,which takes the spatial distance as the spatial weight matrix,this study uses the input-output table to calculate the trade quota matrix between industries,and on this basis,constructs the direct consumption matrix coefficient table of production network as the spatial weight matrix,which measures the closeness of each industry in the production chain,and extends the application of spatial measurement method to the field of monetary finance. |
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