Research On The Risk Controllability Of Urban Housing Market Bubble In China Under The New Normal

Since the economic development has entered a new normal,the orientation of real estate property has gradually returned to the residential property,and the housing market has been steadily and healthily developing while facing a situation of increasing challenge and importance.Based on this background,the article improves the measurement method of housing market bubble.Taking 35 large and medium-sized cities in China as an example,the article measures the degree of housing market bubble and forms an overall understanding of the evolution characteristics of housing market bubble in typical cities in China under the new normal.On this basis,considering the objective reality that the macro-control of the real estate market is paying more and more attention to the expected management under the new normal,this article constructs a SI model for the decision-making diffusion of property buyers in the housing market under the influence of heterogeneous expectations,and analyzes theoretically the evolution mechanism of the housing market bubble in typical cities in China under the new normal through system dynamics simulation.What's more,this article clarifies the internal relationship between property buyers' expectations,property buyers' behavior decisions and the bubble evolution.Afterwards,based on the overall goal of macro-control of real estate market under the new normal,the connotation of the controllability of housing market bubble risk is defined,and the controllability index of housing market bubble risk is constructed accordingly.The common characteristics of controllable changes of housing market bubble risk in different cities are extracted from the personalized calculation results,and the basic trend of its development is analyzed.Finally,following the general tone of the classified regulation of the real estate market based on city policies under the new normal,and further learning from the historical experience and lessons of dealing with the real estate market bubble at home and abroad,on the basis of qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation,this article designs the strategy for improving the controllability of the risk of the housing market bubble.The study shows that the hardest hit areas of the housing market bubble in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China are still the first-tier cities under the new normal,the housing market bubble is still mainly generated in the link of down payment and the overall reduction trend of the housing market bubble is more prominent.Under the new normal,the controllable evolution of the housing market bubble risk in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China presents the following four characteristics:(1)The controllability of the housing market bubble has declined in several cities but is generally controllable;(2)Regional differences in controllability of bubble risk in urban housing market still exist,showing a trend of shrinking within groups and increasing among groups as a whole;(3)The mutability of the controllable index of the bubble risk in the urban housing market has weakened,but it still needs to be vigilant;(4)The matching efficiency between supply and demand in the urban housing market still needs to be improved.In order to further improve the controllability of the bubble risk in China's housing market in the future,it is necessary to target the weak links of the improvement of the controllability of the bubble risk in the urban housing market and determine the direction of regulation emphasis.Relying on the relevant policies and regulations of the real estate market,it is necessary to improve the classification and standardize the behaviors of market participants such as governments at all levels and functional regulatory departments,financial institutions,real estate development enterprises,real estate transaction intermediaries,etc;It is necessary to draw lessons from the historical management and control experience of the bubble risk in the urban housing market to strengthen the expected management of market participants,take the expected management of buyers as a breakthrough,reasonably guide them to form the expected continuous regulation and control of the housing market,rent and purchase and eventually perfect the expected economic development as a whole.