| The deep reflection on the subprime crisis makes the departments of banking custody realize the harmfulness of financial statistics’ lacking data and the importance of macro-prudential supervision.As a pioneer in the construction of macro-prudential regulatory framework,the establishment of aggregate financing to the real economy statistical system not only makes up for the lack of total credit statistics effectively,but also becomes a theoretical and practical innovation to support the macro-control in the new era.As Chinese economy entering a stage of high-quality development,the macro-control policies should be more accurate and effective,and the macro prudential supervision system should be more perfect.The in-depth research on the core issues of credit creation mechanism and formation mechanism of aggregate financing to the real economy,as well as the key issues such as output effect and risk brought by it,will be more conducive to revealing the law of the role of aggregate financing to the real economy.It plays an important role in improving the ability of macro prudential supervision,preventing and resolving financial risks in the new era.Based on these,this paper mainly carried out the following work:First of all,it explains the basic concept and statistical attribute of aggregate financing to the real economy,and inspired by the literature review of money supply and demand,credit creation,macro prudential management and risk assessment,we propose that it is reasonable to study the formation mechanism,output effect and risk evaluation of aggregate financing to the real economy under the framework of macro prudential management.Secondly,in terms of the formation mechanism,the paper makes a qualitative analysis on the operation and causes of the stock,increment and internal structure of aggregate financing to the real economy,and obtains the characteristics of periodicity and volatility.After using the DCC GARCH model to empirically test the synergy with the volatility of relevant variables such as money supply,deposit and loan,interest rate,investment,etc.,it is found that the synergy between aggregate financing to the real economy and money supply is relatively high It is complex and has strong coordination with investment demand and price factors.For the credit creation mechanism of forming aggregate financing to the real economy,this paper attempts to build a credit creation model with statistical gap factors.In the creation mechanism of existing gap information and further integrating gap information into the aggregate financing to the real economy cycle,it is found that the credit creation effect of aggregate financing to the real economy is obviously different from that of traditional credit creation mechanism,and the mechanism is more complex.Thirdly,the paper empirically tests the actual output,target output and potential output effect after the formation of aggregate financing to the real economy.Using the smooth transformation autoregressive model tests the effect,it is proved that in terms of the actual output level,the impact of aggregate financing to the real economy on it is linear and non-linear,high-low mechanism conversion,with threshold and threshold effects;while the impact path of aggregate financing to the real economy on target output and potential output is relatively stable,and the positive impact effect is obvious.Finally,using factor analysis method to evaluate the risk monitoring index system of aggregate financing to the real economy,and using neural network method to verify the rationality,the double model proves that in the risk evaluation of aggregate financing to the real economy,the overall liquidity factor,the financing burden rate factor of macro-economy and the statistical gap factor are important factors.It plays a significant role to pay attention to and monitor these indexesin preventing the financial risks brought by aggregate financing to the real economy.This paper realizes three aspects of innovation: First,innovation of research perspective.Breaking through the previous observation of aggregate financing to the real economy from the perspective of monetary policy,focusing on the macro prudential management objectives of "information gap" and "risk",this paper studies the credit creation,output effect and risk evaluation of aggregate financing to the real economy.In the analysis of output effect,this paper empirically analyzes the output effect brought by the aggregate financing to the real economy from three levels of actual output,target output and potential output corresponding to the planning goal,input and other links in the management process.This study realizes two research perspective innovations.Second,this paper identifies the impact of statistical gap on the formation mechanism of aggregate financing to the real economy.By adding statistical gap factors into the traditional credit creation model,it is found that the credit creation effect of aggregate financing to the real economy is significantly affected by the statistical gap.The larger the statistical gap is,the smaller the identifiable credit creation effect is.The gap also weakened.Thirdly,building a aggregate financing to the real economy risk evaluation index system,which includes seven indicators such as overall liquidity,financing burden rate,solvency,statistical gap,etc.It is demonstrated by using factor analysis and artificial neural network dual model.The evaluation effect of the index system is good and the risk monitoring is operable.Finally,this paper puts forward that under the framework of macro prudential management,the optimization of aggregate financing to the real economy mangement should be improved from the following aspects: the statistical caliber of the aggregate financing needs quicker adjustment and improvement,promoting the implementation of comprehensive statistics of financial industry efficiently,exploring the relevance monitoring method of big data,and constructing the macroeconomic management coordination mechanism with social financing as the core.In the future,after expanding the statistical caliber of aggregate financing to the real economy,there may be new findings in the study of its new round of operation,synergy and credit creation.There is also a large space for the study of the formation mechanism,risk monitoring and regional aggregate financing to the real economy under the influence of the "double policies" of monetary and fiscal. |
