Research On Methodology And Models For Agriculture Outlook In Zambia

This study is an in-depth analysis of agriculture production,consumption and trade in Zambia it endeavors to investigate factors affecting agricultural output by focusing on the previous trends and then conduct a 10 years forecast using different econometric methodologies and models such as the Error Correction Model,Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model,Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier model,as well as Extended Linear Expenditure System Demand Function model.The aim is to offer an empirical approach in assessing the factors that affect optimum output in the aforementioned sector.The focus is on crop production,thus,in our analysis we selected six major crops in Zambia which includes among which;maize which is the staple food crop and hence a widely grown crop among farmers in Zambia,groundnuts which is the second widely grown crop,rice,soybeans,cotton,and potatoes.Thus,our analysis applies econometric models suitable for multiple time series data,and intended for long run stochastic tendencies.We use time series data for area,yield,production,sale,consumption and stock share in Zambia(1961-2016)collected from FAO statistics.Further,we applied the Augmented Dickey Fuller(ADF)and the DF-GLS unit-root test to assess the stationary of our series.The results of the ADF test reveals that our data has no unit root and is stationary after first differencing,integrated in the first order I(1).Additionally,we examined the short and long run equilibrium in order to estimate the speed at which the area share returns to equilibrium after a change in yield.The results indicate that a unit increase of the area share of maize has similar impact on maize yield in the next season owed to excess stock,and price variability.The study further scrutinizes the allocation of resources,specifically,land,labor and capital among small-scale farmers and its effect on agriculture growth in the region.In addition,the study investigates the reaction of small-scale farmers to the state and market interpolations in the sector and explores variations in production because of such undertakings.Overall,the outlook provides a conceivable forecast for Zambia's crop production.Consequently the results indicate that the country will continue to face challenges in ensuring food security and sustainable production,precisely,among smallholder farmers.This is due to insufficient,late delivery and high costs of inputs which is deteriorated by low growth in income and high impact of climate variation.Thus,if the costs of inputs and low income growth rate is not addressed,Zambia's food security situation is most likely to deteriorate.According to this outlook,achieving these goals with a slowdown in the growth of yields will require an increase in production to meet the growing demand of food for the citizens.Meali-meal prices and other food imports may also rise above the tarrif qoutas.However,the projection suggests that while urbanization and demand for consumables products may continue to rise at a fast rate,there is a decrease in the marginal impact due to low levels of income.Thus,based on the forecast,crop production in Zambia will have a sluggish growth rate with seasonal fluctuations mainly driven by weather variability,weaak domestic currency and sluggish policies addressing agricultural output.Consumption demand will continue to grow with increasing urbanization and population growth,while income will continue to decline.This will propel price increase in main consumables such as meali-meal,oil,and rice.Therefore,the government ought to inject strigent policies to combant such production and consumption behaviors to safeguard food security in the country.This dissertation has six chapters;the first chapter gives the introduction and background of study.The second and third chapters comprises of the literature review and the methodology respectively.The fourth chapter gives an in-depth of state policies among small-scale farmers,which includes marketization and taxation policies,labor policies and migration,and land utilization,land alienation,and consumption.It further evaluates how these policies affect agriculture productivity among small-scale farmers.The fifth chapter stretches some data presentation and facts about forecasting output,consumption and trade of major crops in Zambia.It further offers a synopsis on household demographics,income,age,investment,extension services as well as external assistance rendered to the famers and how that affect production.Furthermore,we analyze the sources of labor in relation to crop production,credit facilities,and the marketing of agriculture output among small-scale farmers.Finally,chapter six presents our findings,recommendations and conclusion,which sums up the study.