| Since Hong Kong bank began to handle personal offshore RMB business in 2004,RMB internationalization has made fruitful achievements in cross-border trade and investment settlement,offshore market construction and currency swaps.However,between 2016 and 2017,the process of RMB internationalization slowed down significantly,and even regressed in the above aspects.Behind these facts,it reveals the unsustainability of RMB internationalization mainly based on cross-border trade and investment,and the development of RMB invoicing function is imminent.The"belt and road" initiative and the opening of China's financial market have brought significant opportunities for RMB to become an international invoicing currency.In the context of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee's proposal to "steadily promote RMB internationalization",the RMB invoiced commodity futures trading volume was broken through,and RMB international bonds serving the "belt and road" are continuously launched.The important development period of international invoicing currency function of RMB has arrived.On the basis of the current development,it has become one of the main issues concerned by the government,academia and industry to clarify the determinants of RMB as an international invoicing currency,form an overall plan to promote international invoicing currency function of RMB,and constantly improve the recognition and influence of RMB in the global scope.Based on the development of RMB internationalization appears repeatedly,the"belt and road" initiative and the opening of China's financial market have brought significant opportunities,this paper studies the development of international invoicing currency function of RMB based on the two perspectives of the official sector and the private sector,and systematically studies the determinants of RMB as an international invoicing currency,and then accordingly constructs a stereoscopic strategic path to further promote international invoicing currency function of RMB.It provides theoretical basis and decision-making reference for steadily promoting RMB internationalization and developing higher-level open economic development strategy.The research of this paper is based on the logic of "raising problems,analyzing and solving problems",Its research contents and conclusion are as follows:First of all,in the part of "raising questions",from the official sector and the private sector,the paper systematically analyzes the development of international invoicing currency function of RMB,and reveals the main problems of RMB invoicing function at present.The results reveal that,in the official sector,RMB began to perform the function of International invoicing currency in anchor currency,international bond denominated currency,SDR and SDR bonds.In detail,based on the modified two-step Frankel-Wei method,RMB has become the anchor currency of 49 economies out of 109 economies surveyed.The impact on Philippine Peso,Argentine Peso,Mozambique Meticais and Chile Peso from RMB are stronger than those from US dollar,euro,British pound and Japanese yen.As the "belt and road" initiative is gradually implemented,the currency anchor effect of RMB has increased in fluctuation and its influence in global exchange rate arrangement has been gradually enhanced.In addition,by the end of 2018,China.Hungary,the Philippines and other five countries and regions'governments,central banks and Asian Development Bank had issued RMB international bonds.With RMB being included in the SDR basket,China's inter-bank bond market has successfully launched SDR bonds,which has opened up a new development path for RMB to play the role of official invoicing currency.In the private sector,RMB has been used as a invoicing currency in cross-border trade and financial transactions.In terms of cross-border trade,RMB invoicing in cross-border trade has increased in recent years,and the countries(regions) using RMB for trade invoicing have expanded to Asia,Europe,North America,Latin America and Oceania area.In terms of financial transactions,RMB has played the role of International denominated currency in the fields of bonds,stocks,funds,futures and currency exchange transactions.Among them,the issuance of RMB international bonds by corporate has made vigorous development,and the scale of corporate issuance has shown a gradual upward trend,covering Asia,Europe,North America,Africa and Oceania area,including 24 countries and regions such as Hong Kong,Germany,Singapore and France.In addition,offshore RMB stocks have been successfully issued in Hong Kong and Singapore,offshore RMB funds,QFII funds and RQFII funds have been increasing,RMB denominated commodity futures trading has officially started,and the scale of RMB direct trading and regional trading for other currencies has increased,providing support for overseas corporate and non-residents to use RMB denominated products.However,there are still some unbalanced problems in invoicing function of RMB,which is highlighted by the low level of development of RMB invoicing in official sector,RMB invoicing in private sector is mainly concentrated in Asia and the obvious gap in the development process of different invoicing function of RMB.Secondly,in the part of "analysis problems”,based on the official sector and the private sector,the paper analyzes the determinants of RMB as an anchor currency of other economies,cross-border trade invoicing currency and enterprises issuing international bonds denominated currency,in order to explore the reasons for the existing problems of invoicing function of RMB.For the determinants of RMB as an anchor currency of other economies,this paper studies the channel of RMB as an anchor currency from three aspects:factors between two countries,the third country factors and global factors.Then,based on the cross-border panel data of 108 countries(regions),this paper uses Heckman two-stage model to empirically test the determinants of other economies' choice of anchor RMB and the anchoring weight,as well as the heterogeneity of economies in different regions.The results show that,the factors between two countries,the third country factors and the global factors are all important for RMB to become the anchor currency of other economies.Specifically,in terms of choosing to anchor RMB,other economies choose whether to anchor RMB based on factors between two countries and the third country factors.The more dependent the economy is on China's trade,The stronger China's financial ties with the economy through third countries,the more favorable it is for RMB to become the anchor currency of the economy.In terms of anchoring weight of RMB,factors between two countries and global factors are the main considerations for other economies to anchor weight of RMB.Among them,the opening of China's capital account is conducive to improving the anchoring weight of RMB,while bilateral capital flows,RMB exchange rate market reform,global commodity price index and global risk index are not good for them.Further study on the determinants of anchoring RMB in different regional economies shows that,Asian,African,Latin American,European and Oceania economies have strong heterogeneity in the choice and weight of anchoring RMB,and relevant departments need to take different strategies for each region to promote RMB to play the role of anchoring currency in the local area.For the determinants of cross-border trade RMB invoicing,on the basis of theory of currency choosing in international trade invoicing,this paper introduces China's specific institutional factors,and makes a theoretical analysis of RMB as the invoicing currency of cross-border trade.Taking the cross-border panel data as the sample,an extended gravity model is constructed,and SGMM method is used to empirically test the determinants of RMB invoicing in cross-border trade.The research shows that,the development of RMB invoicing in cross-border trade has both generality and particularity compared with the main invoicing currencies.It is not only driven by general market factors,but also by specific institutional factors in China.From the perspective of market competition,China's economic strength,the economic strength of trading countries and the relative heterogeneity of China's products are the main factors affecting RMB invoicing in cross-border trade.The stronger China's economic strength,the higher the degree of product heterogeneity,and the weaker the economic strength of trading countries,the more favorable it is for the trading countries use RMB to invoice.From the perspective of institutional factors,Chinese government's active participation in signing FTA and vigorously carrying out border trade is the main driving force of RMB invoicing in cross-border trade.Under the background that China's capital account is not fully open and the market-oriented mechanism of exchange rate and interest rate needs to be improved,it provides policy support for RMB to perform the function of invoicing in cross-border trade and improves the institutional environment to a certain extent.At the same time,RMB invoicing in cross-border trade also has a strong inertia effect.With the increasing recognition and use of RMB abroad,the invoicing scale of RMB in cross-border trade will be further improved.For the determinants of RMB international bonds issued by corporate,based on the data of global corporate bond issuance provided by Thomson Reuters,this paper studies the mechanism and determinants of RMB international bond issued by domestic and overseas enterprises from the micro level,and investigates the heterogeneous motivations of different types of corporate.It is found that,there are differences in determinants of RMB international bonds issued by domestic and overseas corporate.For domestic corporate,the issuance of RMB international bonds has a strong inertia.The higher the inflation rate in China,and the greater the market share of RMB international bonds,the more favorable it is for domestic corporate to issue RMB international bonds.The higher the appreciation of RMB exchange rate,the more developed China's financial market,the larger the scale of bond issuance,and the occurrence of global financial crisis are more unfavorable for domestic corporate to choose RMB as the international bond denominated currency.Compared with domestic non-financial corporate,domestic financial corporate have stronger inertia effect in choosing RMB invoicing,and they are mainly affected by their business activities,while non-financial corporate pay more attention to RMB exchange rate level.For overseas corporate,the market share of RMB international bond,the inertia effect of RMB denominated and other currencies denominated international bond,the growth rate of domestic(regional)economy and the yield to maturity of bonds are the main driving factors for overseas corporate to issue RMB international bond,and overseas corporate are more inclined to issue smaller scale and shorter term RMB international bond.For overseas non-financial corporate,liquidity motivation is the main motivation for corporate issuance.Compared with that,the issuance motivation of overseas financial corporate is more abundant.Foreign exchange risk management motivation and liquidity motivation are the main motivation for their issuance of RMB international bonds.Finally,in the part of "solving problems",the paper puts forward a stereoscopic strategic path to promote RMB to play the role of international invoicing currency.This paper puts forward the strategic goal,development path and specific implementation strategy of RMB to play the function of International invoicing currency.The overall strategic goal is that,enhancing the functions of RMB as an anchor currency,cross-border trade invoicing currency and international bond denominated currency are the main direction,With the "belt and road" initiative and the depth of China's financial market opening,promoting the coordination and interaction of RMB invoicing in various sectors,areas and regions,and ultimately achieving RMB as the main international invoicing currency.On this basis,the paper designs the development path of RMB international invoicing currency function from three aspects:sector expansion,field interaction and regional expansion.In the aspect of sector expansion,the main path is "cross-border trade invoicing currency+international bond denominated currency+anchor currency",and other RMB invoicing should be cultivated to expand from private sector invoicing to official sector invoicing.In terms of field interaction,the development path of "cross-border trade invoicing and international bond denomination interaction+commodity trade and futures invoicing linkage" is adopted to realize RMB invoicing interaction in the field of trade and finance.In terms of regional expansion,"consolidate Asia,deepen belt and road,and plan other regions" are needed to expand the geographical area of RMB international invoicing currency function.Based on the strategic goal and development path,the implementation strategy is needed from strengthening our own capacity building and strengthen domestic economic strength,providing RMB invoicing market environment for "belt and road" countries and promoting the implementation of official cooperation between China and other countries and international institutions,In order to promote RMB to play a broader,higher level and deeper international invoicing currency function.The innovation points of this article mainly includes three aspects:firstly,different from the previous research on RMB invoicing from the official sector or private sector,this paper systematically studies the development status and determinants of RMB international invoicing currency function from both the official sector and private sector perspectives.In addition,this paper makes a clear distinction between the forms of RMB invoicing in the official sector and the private sector,and the results show that development of RMB invoicing in each sector has great heterogeneity,which provides a useful supplement for the existing research.Secondly,in the study of determinants of RMB as an anchor currency,the paper analyzes the mechanism of RMB anchor effect from factors between two countries,third country factors and global factors,and adopts Heckman two-stage model to effectively control the sample selection problem,promoting the relevant research of RMB anchor effect.Thirdly,the paper systematically studies determinants of RMB international bonds issued by domestic and overseas corporate from the micro level,as well as the heterogeneity of different types of corporate,which provides a more comprehensive empirical evidence for the study on determinants of RMB international bonds. |
PDF Full Text Request