| Over the past four decades of reform and opening-up,China has experienced unprecedented changes and made substantial achievements because of long-term high-speed growth.China has become the world’s second-largest economy and successfully entered the ranks of upper-middle income countries.However,as the economy is getting better,a series of contradictions are gradually emerging: the supply system cannot effectively meet the demand structure,the economic structure is unbalanced;the driving force of innovation is insufficient,the downward pressure on economy is increasing;the carrying capacity of resources and environment is weakening,and the constraint on economy is gradually increasing.Among them,structural problems are the deep-seated reasons that affect the economic development of our country.Since 2013,with economy has entered a new normal,pursuing steady growth and structural readjustment has been the main task of macroeconomic regulation.The 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China declared that adjusting economic structure is the main way to change the mode of economic development.The 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that the supply-side structural reform is an important measure to promote China’s high-quality development in the new era.Northeast China is an important heavy chemical industry and commodity grain base in China,which made great contribution to the economic development of our country.Since the 1990 s,however,Northeast China has been in a recession,and has been full of some deep-seated institutional,structural and resource problems.In 2003,the state initialized a strategy of “revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China”,which alleviated the downward pressure of economy to some extent.However,as economy has entered to a “new normal”,Northeast China’s economy has been in trouble again,and structural problems become more and more prominent.For example,the degree of agricultural modernization is low,the proportion of heavy chemical industry is high,the emerging industries lags behind,and the industrial structure is unreasonable.On the demand side,the preference for investment is far higher than consumption,which makes investment and consumption seriously inconsistent.In the aspect of factor input structure,traditional material is larger than innovation,and the growth power is insufficient.Facing the severe economic situation,in 2016,the state put forward that economic structural adjustment is the key to revitalize Northeast China.Therefore,under the background of economic restructuring,studying the structural factors of economic downturn in Northeast China will help to deeply analyze the crux of the "new Northeast phenomenon",and provide policy reference for the overall revitalization of Northeast China.Based on the regional economic growth theory,structuralism economic development theory and system theory,from a system perspective,this thesis makes comprehensive use of economic geography,systems science,regional economics,econometrics and other related discipline theories,and applies factor analysis,panel data regression,generalized method of moments and spatial econometric method as research methods,and then discusses the direct effect,interactive effect and spatial spillover effect of economic structure on economic growth in northeast China from 2000 to 2017,analyzes the practical problems of economic structure on economic growth,and puts forward some policy suggestions.Firstly,the thesis systematically summarized the relevant theories as the theoretical support,such as structuralism,economic growth theory and system science theory.Secondly,the thesis divided the economic structure into five structures from the perspective of supply and demand,including factor structure,industrial structure,investment and consumption structure,national income and expenditure structure and regional structure.Moreover,the logical mechanism of economic structure affecting economic growth was elaborated according to the different action modes,which forms the main line of research in this thesis.Thirdly,the paper described the spatial and temporal characteristics of the economic structure in the Northeast China from the provincial level and the municipal level respectively,and then evaluated the rationality of the economic structure by establishing an evaluation index,which lays a foundation for the study of the possible effect of the economic structure on economic growth.Furthermore,the dissertation brought the economic structure into the framework of economic growth from the perspective of supply and demand,and measured the direct effect,interaction effect and spatial spillover effect of economic structure on economic growth in Northeast China by using econometric methods.In addition,the differences of three effects in Liaoning province,Jilin province and Heilongjiang province were discussed from the provincial level.Finally,in order to obtain enlightenment of adjusting economic structure,the thesis analyzed the case of developed regions,and put forward suggestions to improve the effect of economic structure growth of Northeast China according to current situation.The results show that,first,the evolution characteristics of the economic structure of Northeast China are as follows: the industrial structure transforms to rationalization and advancement gradually.The factor input structure changes from traditional factor to scientific and technological innovation.The investment consumption structure always keeps a characteristic of high investment and low consumption.The regional structure is unbalanced.The balance of payments changes from trade surplus to deficit.Second,the economic structure in Northeast China is in a moderately unreasonable,and the investment and consumption structure is the most unreasonable,followed by the regional structure,factor structure,balance of payments structure and industrial structure.Third,the factor structure and balance of payment structure play positive role in boosting the economy of the Northeast China,but investment and consumption structure and regional structure as well as industrial structure upgrading have a restraining role.In addition,the industrial structure and investment consumption structure have threshold effect on economic growth.Fourth,the industrial structure upgrading and the investment and consumption structure have significant negative interaction on economic growth in Northeast China;the industrial structure and regional structure,balance of payments structure have positive interaction on economic growth.The industrial structure rationalization,the investment and consumption structure and the balance of payments structure have positive interaction on the economic growth of Northeast China,and the rationalization of industrial structure and regional structure have negative interaction on the economic growth.Fifth,some structural elements(factor input structure,industrial structure upgrading)produce spatial spillover effect on economic growth.Moreover,the spatial spillover effect of industrial structure upgrading has differences between long-term and short-term.Based on the above research conclusions,the thesis proposes three paths for promoting three economic effects.Firstly,adjusting and optimizing the economic structure is beneficial to improve the positive driving effect of economic structure.Secondly,cultivating and perfecting a reasonable structural interaction system can enhance the positive interaction effect among the economic structural elements in Northeast China.Thirdly,improving the institutionalized regional cooperation mechanism strengthen the positive spillover effect of structural elements on economic growth in Northeast China. |
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