Research On Early Warning Of The Zombieization Dilemma Of Listed Companies

In recent years,China's economic development mode,economic structure and economic growth momentum have been profound changed.The 19 th National Congress of the CPC pointed out that,in current,China's economy has changed from the stage of high-speed growth to the stage of high-quality.In this process,we must deepen the structural reform of the supply side,speed up developing a powerful manufacturing country and speed up developing advanced manufacturing industry.Although China's economic achievements in the past decades have attracted worldwide attention,we must be aware that as the economy enters the new normal,the sequelae of the development mode of flood irrigation in the past has become more and more serious,and many industries are still suffering from overcapacity and weak product competitiveness.The development mode of flood irrigation in the past has left many sequelae.If we don't properly deal with it,we will face the problem of "China Flood irrigation" Strategic ideas such as "Made in China 2025" and "Accelerating the Construction of an Innovative country" have a negative impact.For these problems,the government has put forward a series of economic reform programs including "capacity reduction,de-stocking,deleveraging,cost reduction,improving underdeveloped areas",among which the treatment of zombie firms is the "bull nose" of " capacity reduction,de-stocking,deleveraging,cost reduction,improving underdeveloped areas ".Research on zombie firms is not only an urgent need for economic development,but also a necessary choice for long-term and healthy economic development.However,the existing research basically aims at the established fact that normal firms have become zombie firms,and the research results guide the disposal arrangements after normal firms become zombie firms.The lack of exploration on the evolution process and pre-warning of zombie firms leads to the lack of means for early warning of zombie firms,which makes it difficult to contain the formation of zombie firms from the source.In order to make up for the existing defects,this dissertation puts forward the concept of zombieization dilemma,and divides the zombieization dilemma into several stages,which makes it clear that the evolution of zombie firms is a dynamic process from no to heavy dilemma state.Based on the in-depth analysis of the formation and aggravation mechanism of zombieization dilemma,and the characteristics of each stage of zombieization dilemma,the early-warning input indicators and early warning output indicators of zombie dilemma are designed At the same time,the early warning model of zombie dilemma is established.Through this study,it provides theoretical basis and practical tools for the government to allocate regulatory resources,the establishment of early warning mechanism for enterprise management,and the improvement of investment decision-making by investors.The paper is divided into eight chapters.The first chapter is the introduction.Based on the research background,this paper puts forward the research theme,analyzes the theoretical and practical significance of this paper,then expounds the overall research structure and content of this dissertation,introduces the research methods and technical routes,and finally summarizes the innovation of this dissertation.The second chapter is literature review.Based on the literature review of zombieization dilemma assessment,causes,hazards,countermeasures and early warning,this dissertation analyzes the shortcomings of the existing research,and points out the marginal contribution this research can provide.The third chapter is about the economic facts and institutional background of zombie firms.This chapter introduces the macroeconomic facts of zombie firms,and combs in detail the policy documents on identifying and disposing zombie firms issued by the central and local governments.The fourth chapter is about the definition,stage division and early warning theory framework of zombieization dilemma.First of all,by summarizing the similarities and differences in the concept of zombie firms,this dissertation puts forward the concept of zombieization dilemma,and analyzes the relationship between zombieization dilemma and financial dilemma.Then,this dissertation applies the classic capital structure theory,cash flow theory,excess capacity theory,information asymmetry theory,social exchange theory,economic environment theory and other theories in the field of management and accounting to analyze the formation and aggravation mechanism of zombieization dilemma,and determines the criteria,quantity and method of zombieization dilemma stage division based on the theory of enterprise life cycle This dissertation analyzes the basic characteristics of zombieization dilemma and the characteristics of different degrees of zombieization dilemma.Then,based on the basic idea of early warning research,this dissertation puts forward the theoretical framework of early warning,including four aspects: the theoretical analysis of zombieization dilemma early warning,the selection of early warning indicators,the establishment of early warning model,and the verification of early warning model.The fifth chapter is the study of zombieization dilemma early warning index system.On the basis of meeting the principle of index selection,combining the previous theoretical analysis,literature and professional knowledge,the agency index commonly used in academia is used as the early warning index of this dissertation.The early warning indicators include early warning input indicators and early warning output indicators,among which the early warning input indicators are composed of 27 historical data indicators;the early warning output indicators are formed by the zombieization dilemma index partition established in this dissertation,that is to say,based on the confidence coefficient method,the zombieization dilemma index is divided into four stages: non zombieization,light zombieization,medium zombieization and heavy zombieization,which are the early warning output indicators.The sixth chapter is the research on the establishment of zombieization dilemma early warning model.This chapter introduces the basic principles of genetic algorithm and support vector machine,which are integrated into a workflow according to their characteristics.Based on the genetic algorithm support vector machine method,the zombieization dilemma early warning models of T-1 and T-2 are established.The seventh chapter is the verification of zombieization dilemma early warning model.This chapter validates the basic performance of the early warning model,the early warning effect of changing the early warning input indicators,and the early warning effect of changing the early warning method.It also discusses the application conditions,possible problems and application scenarios of the early warning model.The eighth chapter,conclusion and enlightenment.In this chapter,based on the in-depth analysis and reasonable induction of the research results of the third to seventh chapters,the research conclusions and research implications of this dissertation are formed.The basic conclusions of the dissertation includes: Firstly,zombieization is a dynamic evolution process from nothing to heavy.In this process,there are ten characteristics of change at least,which are debt burden,profitability,resource utilization efficiency,growth,market reflection,sustainable operation security,external financial support,social burden,governance structure,zombie inertia.Secondly,the zombieization dilemma index can evaluate the severity of zombieization dilemma reliably and effectively,which provides a quantitative basis for the stage division of zombieization dilemma.Thirdly,the early-warning model of zombieization dilemma has better generalization ability and stability,and the composition of early-warning input index system and the selection of early-warning methods are more effective than other verification objects under the same conditions.Fourthly,the zombieization dilemma early warning model expands the two-stage early warning to multi-stage early warning,which can not only predict whether the firm will fall into the zombieization dilemma,but also predict the degree of zombieization dilemma will fall into.There are three innovations in this dissertation:Firstly,the concept of zombieization dilemma stage division is proposed.By combing a large number of government documents and academic literature,this dissertation summarizes the similar parts of the definition of zombie firms between the official and academic circles,summarizes ten aspects of evaluating the degree of zombie firms,and embeds the theory of enterprise life cycle into the division of zombieization dilemma stage,and points out four stages of zombie firm life cycle: nonzombieization,light zombieization,medium zombieization,heavy zombieization,and from the above 10 aspects described in detail the basic characteristics of zombieization dilemma and the characteristics of each stage of zombieization dilemma.Secondly,the early warning index system of zombieization dilemma is established.At the level of early warning input indicators,in addition to endogenous indicators,innovation adds external economic environment indicators and organizational characteristics indicators to improve the performance of early warning model.At the level of early warning output indicators,the ZDS of manufacturing listed companies is established,on this basis,the zombieization dilemma stage is divided quantitatively,and the four stages are taken as early warning output indicators.The early warning index system of zombieization dilemma comprehensively considers the development status and industry characteristics of listed manufacturing companies in China,improves the scientific and comprehensive evaluation and early warning of zombieization dilemma of listed manufacturing companies,and is more realistic.Thirdly,a multi-stage early warning model of zombieization dilemma is established.In this paper,through the integration of genetic algorithm and support vector machine,a zombieization dilemma early warning model is established by using genetic algorithm support vector machine method,and an application scenario of using machine learning technology to solve practical problems is generated.It deepens the application of machine learning in zombieization dilemma early warning,which provides a reference for the intelligent decision-making of regulatory authorities,enterprise management,investors and creditors.It also provides an example and inspiration for the academic community to combine disciplines.