Research On The Influence Of Management Optimism On Corporate Debt Financing

The issue of financing decision-making has always been a hot topic of focus in the academic and practical circles.Affected by management irrational behavior,corporate financing presents many "anomaly",such as excessively financing and excessively debt financing.The theory of behavioral finance provides a great perspective for explaining the"anomaly" in the field of corporate financial.The irrational characteristics of management will have an important impact on the debt financing behavior of enterprises.Analysis of the important role of management irrational characteristics in corporate decision-making is of great significance for understanding the process of corporate financing decision-making.This article uses text sentiment analysis to measure the degree of management optimism,examines the influence of management optimism on corporate financing preferences,and analyzes the mechanism of management optimism on corporate debt financing.This dissertation is divided into seven parts:The first chapter is the introduction,which draws the topic of the thesis from the realistic background and theoretical background,expounds the relevant research significance and research content,and introduces the research methods and technical routes adopted by the thesis.The second chapter is the theoretical basis,expounding the relevant conceptual definitions and classic theories,reviewing the research related to measuring the level of optimism of management,and introducing the text analysis.The third chapter is the measurement research of management optimism,using text sentiment analysis technology to measure the management optimism,and makes a rational judgment.Chapter 4 studies the impact of management optimism on corporate financing preferences.The Ordered Probit model is constructed to examine the relationship between management optimism and corporate financing preferences,and a heterogeneity analysis is conducted.Chapter 5 studies the impact of management optimism on the heterogeneity of corporate debt financing,and examines the impact and mechanism of management optimism on corporate debt financing scale,debt maturity structure and debt financing methods.The sixth chapter is the study of the economic consequences of the impact of management’s optimism on corporate debt financing.The seventh chapter is the conclusion and outlook.The main conclusions of this dissertation are as follows:Firstly,combining the Chinese word habits and the annual report information context,text sentiment analysis is used to reasonably measure the degree of optimism of listed companies’ management.It is found that the degree of optimism of management is significantly different under disparate property right characteristics,industry types and regional characteristics;Secondly,compared with endogenous financing and equity financing,the companies with over-optimistic management prefer debt-financing,and the cumulative average probability of debt financing is 70%.This effect is more pronounced in state-owned enterprises;Finally,the optimism of management can significantly affect the scale of debt financing,debt maturity structure and the way of debt financing of enterprises,mainly through the risk-bearing effect and signal transmission effect;This effect is more pronounced in state-owned enterprises,management having a banking background,and the period when the financing constraints are more serious and economic policy uncertainty is higher;The over-optimistic management influencling debt financing behaviors will not affect corporate debt financing costs,but will increase the risk of corporate debt default.The three main innovations of this dissertation are as follows:(1)Based on the text emotion mining technology,this dissertation measures the degree of optimism of management.Based on the text emotion mining technology,and the establishment of the emotional lexicon of China Financial Annual Report,this dissertation uses the bag-of-words model to analyze the text,the PHP language to write the text sentiment analysis program,which measures the degree of optimism of management and judge the rationality.It provides new ideas for subsequent measurement of management irrational characteristics.This dissertation introduces text sentiment analysis into the measurement research of management’s over-optimistic.On the basis of the existing sentiment dictionary,the Chinese business financial annual report sentiment lexicon is constructed based on the Chinese word habits and the annual report information context,which provides a scientific and feasible vocabulary reference for the follow-up study of the tone emotions contained in the enterprise annual report;Applying the word bag model to the sentiment analysis of the annual report,writing the sentiment analysis program through PHP language,counting the frequency of different emotional terms,building a linear relationship model between management intonation and business management status,and adopting the method of industry regression in different years to obtain the residuals of the linear model to measure the optimism of the management.This dissertation adopts the text sentiment analysis method to reasonably measure the degree of over-optimistic of management,making up for the existing deficiencies in the literature about the measurement of over-optimistic of management.It enriches the theoretical literature of management’s irrational characteristics research and provides a reference measurement method for behavioral finance research.It has important theoretical and practical value for promoting the research about the irrational characteristics of management.(2)The Ordered Probit model,in which over-optimistic management influences the financing preference,is constructed in this dissertation.This dissertation calculates the cumulative average probability of different financing modes.From the perspective of behavioral finance,it reveals the influencing factors of corporate financing preference,which supplements the theoretical literature of financing priority order theory,and has positive significance for solving research disputes in the field of corporate financing preference.There is controversy in the academic research on corporate financing preferences.Some literature suggest that companies prefer to choose internal financing.Some literature suggest that companies prefer to choose equity financing.And some literature suggest that companies prefer to choose debt financing.This dissertation mainly reveals the influencing factors of corporate financing preference from the perspective of behavioral finance,finds empirical evidence that management’s optimism affects corporate financing preference,enriches the relevant literature on corporate financing priority order theory,and has positive significance for resolving disputes in existing literature;At the same time,the existing literature of corporate financing preferences is mainly based on multiple regression models,and cannot effectively measure and estimate the internal mechanism of sequence variables.In this dissertation,the Ordered Probit model can be used to estimate the multivariate attribute variables.By calculating the probability of occurrence of different attributes,the order of the advantages and disadvantages can be judged,which can effectively identify the order of the financing methods of the enterprise and make up for the deficiency caused by the defect of regression model in traditional research.This dissertation provides a model basis for research on corporate financing preferences and helps to promote the development of research in the field of corporate financing preferences.(3)Construct the analysis framework and empirical test the heterogeneity characteristics and economic consequences of management optimism affecting corporate debt financing,which provides a reliable theoretical basis and empirical evidence for the academic and practical circles to understand the mechanism of corporate debt financing decision-making.Based on the behavioral finance theory and the high-level echelon theory,this dissertation sorts out the analysis framework,examines comprehensively the heterogeneity characteristics and economic consequences,and constructs the influencing mechanism model of management optimism affecting corporate debt financing.This dissertation also reveals the path effect of risk-bearing effect and signal transmission effect,and clears up the internal mechanism of management optimism affecting corporate debt financing,which enriches the research system of factors affecting corporate debt financing decision-making,and provides a new perspective for follow-up research.At the same time,this dissertation analyses the economic consequences of over-optimistic of management on corporate debt financing,revealing that the over-optimistic of management on debt financing will increase the risk of debt default.The conclusions of this dissertation have important significance for the theoretical and practical circles to understand the internal mechanism of corporate debt financing decisions,and also provide some inspiration for the regulatory authorities to prevent financial crisis.