An Empirical Analysis On The Effects Of China Fiscal Policy During 1993-2012

China's economy is experiencing growth phase transition,in this "new normal" economy,it is needed to innovate macroeconomic regulation and control methods.Therefore,it has great theoretical and practical significance to carry out a comprehensive and systematic study on the effects of fiscal policy practice in the past.The development of theory and practice experience suggests that fiscal policies in essence are policy tools for government to use tax and spending to effect macroeconomic,they are always been the anti-recession policy choices for governments.The idea of economic regulation and control have demand management and supply management,and increasingly showing the characteristics of focus on both demand and supply managements.As a developing country which during the transitional period from the traditional planned economy system to the modern market economic system,China's fiscal policies not only improve the aggregate demand by regulating the total amount,but also improve the total supply through structural adjustment,especially have played an important role in stabilizing economic fluctuations,adjusting economic structure and promoting the long-term economic growth.China has implemented a moderately tight,positive,healthy and a new round of positive fiscal policy practices during the period from 1993 to 2012.Policy framework reflects four characteristics: discretion is the core strategy of the regulation and control policy,focus on both demand and supply managements,expansion fiscal policies are mainly policies,diversified comprehensive uses of policy instruments.Specific policy measures also have four characteristics: using government spending policies as the main regulator of total demand wave motion,using productive government expenditure mainly to promote long-term economic growth,fiscal investment has both long-term and short-term policy implications,combination with the government revenue and financial expenditure policies mainly to promote the adjustment of economic structure.Stabilization of economic fluctuation is the primary reason of the fiscal policy implementation and transformation.The estimated three output multiplier analysis shows that China's fiscal policies can squeeze into private demand and promote shortterm output growth;compared with the policies of government investment,the contribution of government consumption policies to boost output growth to a greater degree in the short term;the new Keynes doctrine DSGE model shows that in the appropriate parameter calibration,the complementarity between consumption and work,monopolistic competition and price stickiness and other factors can become the main transmission mechanism of fiscal policies in China.However,from the perspective of smooth output fluctuations,the overall effect of fiscal policies in China is relatively low;stabilization effect is not high mainly due to the automatic stabilization effect is not high,the management of strength and policy discretionary time is not good,and the combination of policy instruments is not good.Fiscal policy system and its various components,have structural adjustment mechanism.Using the new index of industrial structure level and Chinese provincial panel data,the paper analyzed the total effect of fiscal revenue and fiscal expenditure structure,the overall effect and effect of regional effect,the short-term effect and the long-term effect,and found that fiscal policies on the total amount of industrial structure adjustment has a positive effect both on short-term and long-term;the Eastern region has the largest positive effect,but the effects in the central and western regions are not significant;the structure of fiscal revenue has a direct effect both on the short-term and long-term adjustment of industrial structure,but the fiscal expenditure direct effects of industrial structure adjustment are not significant both on short-term and long-term;in particular,expansionary fiscal investment as the main content of the active fiscal policies,not only did not play a role in optimizing the industrial structure,but blocked the long-term adjustment of the industrial structure;In certain conditions,the fiscal policies can promote the upgrading of the industrial structure by promoting the development of the high-tech industries,and the effects of preferential tax policies are better than that of the financial direct investment.Both government's revenue and expenditure structure can influence the long-term economic growth by affecting the total supply.By introducing the nonlinear regression,based on dynamic provincial panel data in China,it is founded that that the amount and structure of government revenue and financial expenditure both have nonlinear effects of the long-term growth,which are consistent with economic theory predicts;expending the scale of financial expenditure can promote the long-term economic growth,but this positive effect is mainly caused by the structure changes;in fiscal expenditures,increasing spending on public services and agricultural expenditure are not conducive to long-term growth,increasing the proportion of social security expenditure is conducive to promote the long-term growth;in fiscal revenue,increasing the proportions of value-added tax and personal income tax will promote the long-term economic growth,increasing the proportion of corporate income tax is not conducive to long-term growth.Since 2015,the government has emphasized to advance the supply side structural reforms,and this has become the main line of the "the 13 th Five-Year" period of economic development strategy.Fiscal policy will play an important role in the structural reform of the supply side.In the future,we can continue to improve fiscal policy implementations from improving fiscal rules,optimizing expenditure structure,promoting structural tax cuts,coordinating fiscal policy and currency policy,thus to provide more better fiscal policies to support the supply side structural reforms.