Research On The Tourism Spillover Effects And Its Measurement

As the largest and most powerful industry in the world today,tourism has attracted great attention from most countries and regions around the world,which urges these countries and regions to take tourism as the pillar industry and leading industry.The research methods of tourism economic contribution include correlation degree,driving effect,multiplier effect,value-added rate calculation,value-added stripping calculation,input-output,satellite account,computable general equilibrium model,etc.First,there is a strong convergence of relevant research methods,and the results of tourism economic contribution calculation are quite different.Second,there is a big contrast between theory and reality,and satisfactory quantitative research results have not been achieved.And there is no accurate description and measurement of the economic externalities and development linkages brought about by tourism development.Based on the two intersecting angles of the extraordinary driving role of tourism and the measurement of tourism's economic contribution,this paper studies the relationship between "spillover effect" and"spillover measure" on tourism development and the economic contribution of tourism.The research object is focused on the tourism spillover effect,which includes not only the study of tourism's diachronic growth impact,but also the study of tourism's spatial diffusion.It also includes the study of the impact of tourism outside of itself.This paper defines the concept,connotation and mechanism of tourism spillover effect on the basis of defining the research object,content,train of thought,framework and combing the domestic and foreign research on economic externality,tourism economic contribution,spillover effect and tourism spillover effect.It puts forward two research perspectives of interval spatial spillover and regional growth spillover,and establishes a theoretical model of tourism spillover effect.And empirical model.With the help of Stata,ArcGIS,OpenGeoDa,CiteSpace,SPSS and other software,the data of 16 cities in Yunnan Province are selected to verify the rationality of the theoretical and empirical models.The study finds that the spillover effects of tourism space and tourism growth are significant,and both of them bring about positive development driving and negative development deprivation.Therefore,it is necessary to regulate and control the spillover effects properly.It is hoped that from the perspective of policy simulation and decision support,we can provide technical methods for further deepening the high-quality development of tourism and accelerate the coordinated development of regional tourism.The main contents and conclusions of this paper include:(1)Put forward the basic concept of tourism spillover effect.Tourism spillover effect refers to the unexpected development-related impact of tourism development on the economy.It is the economic externality in the process of tourism development.It refers specifically to the externality of tourism activities which promotes or restricts the development of tourism in other areas and local economic development.This impact is manifested in the fact that the development of tourism has reached a considerable level(gaining the status of a pillar industry),and the development of tourism releases a strong radiation effect,the effect of which is unexpected.As for the characteristics of tourism spillover effect,the premise of spillover is that tourism industry has accumulated to a certain extent.The critical point of spillover is that tourism industry has become the pillar industry of social and economic development.The spillover effect is spatial diffusion between regions and regional economic growth.(2)Constructing the theoretical model of tourism spillover effect.Through the analysis of the mechanism of tourism spillover effect,the paper clarifies two ways of spillover:horizontal spatial spillover and vertical growth spillover,and abstracts the key evaluation indicators of tourism spillover effect.Interregional spatial spillovers take economic linkages as the main axis,including six indicators:tourism growth,tourism supply,tourism demand,growth environment,market factors and government factors;intraregional growth spillovers take high-quality development as the main axis,including economic growth,tourism specialization,industrial structure,capital investment,labor input and technology input.The theoretical model of tourism spillover effect is coupled with2 dimensions,4 aspects,6 plates,12 factors and 4 hypotheses.(3)Establishing the Measuring Method of Tourism Spillover Effect.Referring to the theories of new economic geography and new economic growth,this paper puts forward two concepts of tourism spatial spillovers and tourism growth spillovers to analyze the effects of tourism spillovers at interregional and intraregional levels.Based on these,two sets of measurement methods are established.Specifically in the measurement of spatial spillover effect,through the spatial mechanism model,the spatial correlation measurement method is introduced,including spatial correlation analysis,spatial weight matrix,spatial measurement model,measurement model selection and other steps to quantify the inter-regional tourism economic contribution,that is,the size and impact of inter-regional correlation;the measurement of growth spillover effect is through improving the previous mathematical model.Based on the complete tourism production function to measure the spillover effect of growth,including the construction of spillover production function,objective stationarity test and multiple regression analysis,this paper explains the contribution of tourism growth in the region and quantifies the size and impact of the regional correlation.(4)Expand empirical measurement of tourism spillover effect.According to the steps of testing whether there is tourism spillover effect,quantifying the magnitude of tourism spillover effect and analyzing the effect of tourism spillover effect,taking 16 cities in Yunnan Province as an example,in terms of spatial spillover,through the analysis of spatial heterogeneity and spatial correlation,it is found that there is a significant tourism spatial spillover effect among the cities.The local tourism of each city will increase by one percentage,which will drive the surrounding areas.The tourism growth of other municipalities is 0.055728 percent,which shows that tourism growth not only directly affects the development of the region,but also has cross-border impact on the adjacent areas.The spatial and temporal evolution of the two stages of 2005-2010 and 2011-2017 are compared and analyzed.In terms of growth spillover,the spillover effect of regional tourism development on local economic development is significant.For every l percent increase in tourism development,the spillover effect of regional tourism growth can drive economic growth by 0.117309 percent.In addition,the intensity of spillover effect of tourism growth is different in different cities,and the types of tourism spillover are also different in different cities.(5)Formulating the Regulation Path of Tourism Spillover Effect.The theoretical and empirical analysis clearly shows that tourism development and economic growth have a significant role in regional development.Therefore,if there is interdependence,it is necessary to coordinate with each other.Specifically from the promotion of development to drive and inhibit the deprivation of development two aspects to analyze which aspects need to be coordinated,how to coordinate.Promoting development drive is based on the specific performance of each indicator,and restraining development deprivation is based on the problem-oriented perspective.The effective exertion of spatial spillover effect requires eliminating administrative and market barriers among regions,effectively dealing with the relationship between government behavior and market behavior,emphasizing the joint development of markets and promoting regional synergy;the effective exertion of growth spillover effect requires giving full play to the role of human capital and technological innovation,speeding up the transformation from tourism economy to technology-intensive economy.In a word,through the construction and testing of the theoretical model of"space-growth”spillover effect and empirical model,this paper makes a thorough study of the situation of tourism spillover and explores continuously to maximize the effectiveness of spillover effect.The innovations are mainly embodied in the following aspects:research perspective,from the perspective of measuring tourism spillover effect to measure tourism development relevance and tourism economic contribution,specifically borrowing economic thinking,relevant theories of regional economics,spatial economics,new economic geography,development economics,spillover effect evaluation methods into tourism research field,and giving tourism spillover interval.And the two levels of cognition in the region broaden the scope and depth of spillover effect theory research and tourism spillover related research.In terms of theoretical system,through the analysis of the concept system,theoretical system and theoretical model of tourism spillover effect,tourism spatial spillover effect,tourism growth spillover effect,this paper makes up for the shortcomings of existing studies that confuse the concepts of spillover effect at the interregional and intraregional levels,and confuse the concepts of other surrounding areas and two different spillovers at the local level.In the empirical test,a comprehensive quantitative system is established to measure the spillover effect of tourism,to differentiate and analyze the effect of development-driven and development-deprived measures,and on this basis,to regulate the measurement effect from promoting development-driven and inhibiting development-deprived effects.